Will Illinois produce another president
or is Big Jim just another hopeful candidate?

THE PRAIRIE STATE has produced one of the best and one of the worst of the nation's presidents, but for the last century it has yielded up only hopefuls. Since the advent of the late Adlai Stevenson, it has been almost de rigueur for Illinois governors to aspire to national office, but none has managed to cross the Wabash River on the way East. Now comes James Thompson, hoping to be destiny's child.

Here in Washington, the notion has been popularized that Big Jim just might make it, that he has the smarts, political instincts and "luck" to do so. At such a thought, what a flood of bitterness must surge in the head of Dan Walker, whose luck and instincts collapsed in a series of feuds with the Illinois media and General Assembly.

When Percy backed down
A Thompson candidacy would surely elicit more complex emotions in the mind of Charles Percy. He sought the governorship in 1964 as the route to the presidency, was scorched by Barry Goldwater's self-immolation and then sought an alternate road through the Senate. It has proved a dead end, and Percy, perhaps having found some rare wonder drug, claims to have washed White House fever from his system. We shall see.

Percy's own turnaround may well have come in 1968, when he endorsed the hopeless candidacy of Rockefeller and destroyed any chances he may have had to be Nixon's veep. Such is the view of Thomas Houser, a long-time Percy adviser who worked last year for Jerry Ford and stayed here to practice law when Jimmy Carter took over.

Percy judged correctly that Nixon lacked a certain consular stature, but had his judgment been a little less exacting, he might — might — have found himself taking over at the Oval Office that August day in 1974. So thinks Houser.

A national poll had shown in early 1968 that Percy was the only Republican who could beat Bobby Kennedy. Percy dispatched Houser to Washington to monitor his vice presidential prospects. When Percy then went for Rocky at the eleventh hour, Houser believed Percy was acting from conviction, but saw the move as so politically wrongheaded that he quit Percy's staff. Ironically, Rocky wasn't that impressed with Percy's sacrifice, knowing that Percy could not deliver the Illinois delegation from Nixon's embrace.

Houser believes it would take a sharp turn of luck and events for Percy's presidential ambitions to be rekindled and fanned to consuming flame. For both Percy and Thompson, a decision on a Wabash crossing that could put them on a destructive collision course, awaits the finish of the 1978 elections.

Nineteen-eighty might prove too early for a Thompson presidential campaign, but the vice presidential nomination could be another matter. From today's perspective, he is the perfect running mate for almost any presidential nominee. So the veep slot could put him a heartbeat away or position him neatly for 1984.

If he wins reelection in 1978, Thompson will have to adopt some strategy, but the best sources insist he has not even begun to evolve a master plan. 'Twas said of Henry V that Fortune made his sword, and to this point, Fortune has worked overtime at the forge for Big Jim. Not having Dan Walker to kick around in the 1978 election is perhaps another in the long string of Thompson lucky breaks. Thompson probably would have beaten Walker, but— Walker being Walker — the ex-governor might well have ripped off Thompson's right kneecap and left thumb on his way to defeat.

Thompson, like Walker, is criticized for lacking a program, but he has been deceptively successful as governor. For much of the year, one could hear from afar steady complaining: He was too off-handed, too sluggish in making appointments, too unwilling to delegate power, out of touch with his party wheelhorses. Then, suddenly, July was at hand, and he was being assessed as having done pretty well, especially in areas the public notices (education may provide an exception). All the minuses were totaled, but the bottom line was a plus.

If one were to hazard some guesses from this side of the Wabash as to the reasons for a possible Thompson reelection, it might be said that his appeal will rest more on such "issues" as candor, openness, trustworthiness, personality, character and a sense that he can make the government apparatus work than it will on his authorship of a wide array of programs.

If Thompson's luck holds
Thompson gets into trouble by popping off, but his political instincts are superior to those of almost any Illinois pol in memory, and they should enable him to avoid looking incompetent or foolish, in the fashion of Romney or Goldwater. He has not been tested at the national level, but he continues to impress the so-called saltwater pundits, who have so few GOP prospects to survey. That's part of Thompson's luck. It could desert him, as it has so many others.

But for now, from Washington, the waters of the Wabash sparkle calmly enough, and just might be fordable by a fellow seeking to match Lincoln and Grant. 

November 1977 / Illinois Issues / 35