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ILLINOIS ISSUES ELECTION SURVEY

Will GOP win control of House?
Cumulative voting makes prediction uncertain

REPUBLICANS must make a net gain of six seats in the November election in order to win marginal control of the House with 89 votes to the Democrats' 88 votes. Presently Democrats have an 11-vote advantage, 94 to 83.

Republicans stand a good chance of gaining a seat in each of three upstate and six downstate districts. However the cumulative voting system, which allows a voter to split three votes for two or three candidates, or vote three times (a bullet) for a single candidate, makes prediction uncertain.

In the upstate House, Republicans are most likely to pick up seats in the 5th, 9th and 10th districts. Again, because of cumulative voting there may be more, but most political observers agree that the chances are that these three districts will each elect two Republicans and one Democrat, the reverse of the present situation.

If Republicans win control of the House, it will be the first time since 1973, when they had an 89-88 seat advantage. Prior to the "Watergate election" of 1974, Republicans controlled both houses of the legislature year after year. In the 79th General Assembly that changed drastically, as Democrats took a 101-76 seat advantage. That margin dwindled considerably last election and may disappear this time.

The possibility of Republican gains exist in the following districts:

5TH DISTRICT: In the last election incumbent Jack B. Williams (D., Franklin Park) beat Republican opponent Robert J. Guerine of Melrose Park by a few hundred votes. Guerine is running again and may beat Williams. Incumbents Ted E. Leverenz (D., Maywood) and Edward E. Bluthardt (R., Schiller Park) will most likely win reelection.

9TH DISTRICT: This South Suburban district has been a toss-up since the last reapportionment. There may in fact be more Republican voters here, but two Democrats and one Republican were elected last time and all three incumbents are running again. It may be that Democratic incumbent Richard F. Kelley, Jr. (Hazel Crest), is conservative enough for many Republican voters to like him.

THIS MONTH Illinois Issues presents part two of its survey of the candidates for seats in the Illinois General Assembly. This second part examines the views of candidates for the upstate House seats in the 30 districts of Cook County. (Next month's survey will focus on candidates for the House in the 29 downstate districts.) Each upstate district will elect three state representatives for two-year terms. Of the 120 candidates nominated by the two major parties, 93 answered the survey, but six responded late and were not included in statistics for the tables. The tables are based on responses from 45 Democrats, 17 challengers and 28 incumbents; and 42 Republicans, 15 challengers and 27 incumbents. Candidates of new or "third parties" in the 24th and 26th districts filed after the survey was completed, but are included in the list of candidates. The survey was conducted during June and July. Once again five basic subjects are covered by the survey: state spending, legislative goals, election predictions, property tax solutions and the Equal Rights Amendment.

10TH DISTRICT: Another toss-up. There is a possibility that both Republican challengers could win, knocking off one of the two incumbent Democrats — L. Michael Getty (D., Dolton) or John M. Matejek, Jr.,(D., Chicago Heights). The Republican candidates are Patrick S. Grossi of Glenwood and Robert J. Piel of Harvey.

There is also the possibility that the Republicans may lose to a third party challenge in two very strong Democratic upstate districts where incumbents were defeated in the Democratic primary but decided to run anyway. Rep. Lewis A. H. Caldwell from the 24th District and Rep. Peggy Smith Martin from the 26th District have ignored Democrat pleas not to run as new party candidates.

To further complicate the picture in the 26th District, incumbent Taylor Pouncey has also filed under a new party label. He was elected in 1976 as an independent, but voted with the Democrats. All of these "third" party candidates are subject to challenge and. if fault is found with their petitions, they may not be on the November ballot. If they do remain on the ballot, here's what might happen:

24TH DISTRICT: Rep Caldwell could nudge out the otherwise likely Republican winner, incumbent Bernard E. Epton (R., Chicago). Cumulative voting usually guarantees one minority party representative, since there are only two official Democrats on the ballot.

26TH DISTRICT: Reps. Martin or Pouncey may keep Jerry Washington from winning a seat for Republicans in this heavily Democratic southside district. If both Martin and Pouncey survive challenges to their petitions and remain on the November ballot, it's possible they would win and knock off Democrat Ethel Skyles Alexander.

In effect three Democrats would be elected from both of these districts. Technically this flouts the 108-year-old Illinois tradition of guaranteed minority party representation in the Illinois House under cumulative voting. And, it would certainly hurt Republican chances of gaining control of the House this year.

Although this month's survey deals only with upstate House races, there are

22/ September 1978/ Illinois Issues

six districts downstate where Republicans have a chance to pick up seats.

45TH DISTRICT: Incumbent Rep. Richard Luft (D., Pekin) is not running, due to an unsuccessful attempt to win his party's nomination for comptroller. It is likely his seat will be won by Republican George A. Saal, Jr., also of Pekin. Although this district shows Democratic strength in county offices, it has a Republican state senator, Roger A. Sommer (R., Morton).

50TH DISTRICT: This is a marginal district that includes Sangamon and Montgomery counties. Republican challenger Josephine Oblinger of Sherman and director of the Department of Aging under Thompson has a good chance of unseating one of the Democratic incumbents, Doug N. Kane or David Robinson, both of Springfield. She is much more conservative than either, and has good name recognition. Incumbent Republican J. David Jones should win reelection.

51ST DISTRICT: Democratic incumbent Rolland F. Tipsword (D., Taylorville) withdrew his name from the ballot after 12 years in the legislature. He was the only non-Decatur candidate on the ballot. Evidently, the Democrats could find no one from the more rural part of the district, Shelby and Christian counties, so Tipsword was replaced by B. T. "Tim" Donovan of Decatur. Former Rep. Webber Borchers (R., Decatur) is coming out of forced retirement and legal troubles to seek his old seat. He is a likely winner, along with the man who replaced him, incumbent Alien F. Bennett (R., Decatur). Incumbent Democrat John F. Dunn of Decatur should also win.

54TH DISTRICT: Only one incumbent is running, Richard H. Brummer (D., Effingham), and he should win. The other incumbent Democrat, Robert V. Walsh (D., Mount Vernon) was appointed to the House to fill a vacancy. Although Walsh served previously in the House, he may have difficulty winning, so the Republican party may pick up seats for both its candidates, Glen L. Bower of Effingham and Clyde W. Robbins of rural Fairfield. This is the district in which Rep. Roscoe D. Cunningham (R., Lawrenceville) gave up a safe seat to make an unsuccessful bid in the primary for nomination to U.S. Congress from the 22nd District.

55TH DISTRICT: The only incumbent running is Rep. Dwight P. Friedrich (R., Centralia), serving his second House term after three terms in the Senate. He will probably win, along with a second Republican, Frank C. Watson of Greenville. Last time Democrats elected two from this district, but this year one of their candidates, Gary "Mike" Garrison has a well-publicized morals charge against him and refuses to withdraw. The other Democrat, Michael "Mike" Slape, should win instead of Garrison.

59TH DISTRICT: Two incumbents, one Democrat and one Republican, are likely winners. They are Rep. William L. "Bill" Harris (D., Marion) and Rep. Robert C. "Bob" Winchester (D., Marion). The other Republican candidate, James E. Fatherly, served in the House, 1967-68. He has a chance against Democrat challenger James F. Rea of Christopher, who hopes to capture the seat vacated by the retirement of Rep. Richard O. Hart (D., Benton). The district has tended to be Democratic since the last reapportionment.

September 1978 / Illinois Issues/23