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ILLINOIS ISSUES ELECTION SURVEY

Third party possibilities
in future House elections
under cumulative voting

RELATIVELY few candidates for the Illinois House believe Republicans will gain the six seats they need in November to win control of the House. Only 30 per cent of House candidates surveyed predict Republican control, while 46 per cent predict Republicans will fail to elect a majority.

As pointed out last month, the existence of new party candidates in several upstate districts could imperil Republican hopes for House control. There is only one new party candidate downstate, incumbent Rep. Joe E. Lucco(D., Edwardsville). Lucco was beaten by just 47 1/2 votes in the Democratic primary, but he filed as a candidate under the "Citizens for Lucco" party to try to retain his seat for a third term. He is running in the strongly Democratic 56th District, where he appears to have little chance of victory since he lacks the backing of the regular Democratic party organization. One of the two organization candidates would likely be hurt if he succeeds, since the Republican incumbent. Rep. Everett G. Steele(R., Glen Carbon), appears safe. Cumulative voting allows Republican voters to give Steele a bullet — all three votes allotted each voter in House elections.

In the past Lucco has been elected as a Democrat and he would probably vote with Democrats for the purpose of organizing the House. However in order to get on the ballot, he has had to form a new party, "Citizens for Lucco," and name a slate to run with him in the 56th District. On his slate are two other House candidates and a Senate candidate, all without previous political experience. He turned in petitions with 5,674 signatures, 2,000 more than required by law to get his name on the ballot.

Table 1 Control of the House Do you think the Republicans will win control of the House? No Yes Toss-up No answer Democrats 79% 1% 8% 12% Republicans 13% 58% 13% 16% Incumbents 43% 27% 15% 15% Challengers 50% 36% 2% 12% Total 46% 30% 11% 14%

Another way a splinter candidate may get on the ballot is by filing as an independent before the primary. This assures a place on the general election ballot without entering the primary. There is only one such independent candidate downstate, James E. "Jim" McCauley from Joliet in the 39th District. McCauley is a long shot since three incumbent regular party candidates — two Republicans and a Democrat — are likely winners in the 39th.

Thus, although Democrats may lose six seats to Republicans downstate, they may gain from enough upstate splinter candidate victors to retain a working control of the House. Republicans may pick up as many as six seats downstate — in the 45th, 50th, 51st, 54th, 55th and 59th districts — without losing any seat they presently hold there. Splinter party candidates are not a threat to either party downstate. But the existence of such candidates raises the specter of decentralization of the Democratic party, since many disgruntled former party faithful now are ready to go outside the existing structure to defeat Republicans, and party leaders don't appear willing or able to prevent this. Republicans, of course, could retaliate in the next election. If enough third or new party candidates were elected in a future election, they could wield considerable clout in the legislature by voting as a bloc. They might tip the delicate balance of party power if they found one single issue or strong leadership to unify them. Presumably most would share a maverick dissatisfaction with regular party structure and could agree on one or two major issues.

Cumulative voting and the present elections provisions for third parties would give supporters of a single major issue an opportunity to win some legislative seats.

Ideas on property tax reform ONCE again there was little agreement expressed on what needs to be done to reform the state property tax system. Many downstate Democratic legislative candidates spoke of shifting the burden of education off the tax, which is the same proposal made by many upstate Democrats in our earlier survey. Almost an equal number of Democrats and Republicans downstate proposed that assessments should be levied more fairly and universally and that the level of increases should be controlled. Another idea shared by members of both parties, in slightly different forms, was some sort of freeze on taxes combined with a state spending ceiling. This proposal was especially popular with incumbents. A major new response from legislative candidates in this downstate survey was the frank support for reducing the property tax and replacing the lost revenue from it with a state or local income tax. This was supported across the board, regardless of political affiliation or incumbency status, by 14 different House candidates. In addition, two Democrats said they would favor something similar to California's Proposition 13. Two Democrats and one Republican said they would support a complete abolition of the property tax. Yet one Republican incumbent was so far in disagreement with this view that he said, "There is no great need for reform of the property tax system." He was alone in his belief.

October 1978/Illinois Issues/7