By GARY ADKINS
THE mightiest issue of this fall's governor's campaign has been one that neither candidate chose or has decisively mastered: property tax reduction inspired by California's Proposition 13. This is the first year in state politics that the presidential election has not overshadowed the gubernatorial contest and without the property tax issue the Thompson-Bakalis race would have been inordinately dull to an uninterested electorate. But a series of accusations and hastily conceived tax proposals has heated up the contest. Thompson had hoped to base his campaign on his success at holding down spending; Bakalis was apparently gearing his campaign to prove that Thompson was a do-nothing governor running for president. But ever since early June when Proposition 13 dropped out of the California sky, the candidates have found themselves trapped in the toils of the property tax issue. Although he has proven himself capable of slugging it out with the governor toe-to-toe, Bakalis hasn't demonstrated the artful footwork necessary to capture the imagination of a public clearly tired of the usual politicking. Bakalis has been faced with the problem of appearing more fiscally responsible than an incumbent whose reputation is based on keeping the state in the black by holding the line on spending. This has forced Bakalis to promise more and more: on October 9 Bakalis pledged to reduce property taxes by 20 per cent if elected. Failing this, he said, "I will not seek a second term as governor." There appears to be little difference between the basic political philosophies of the two candidates. The race is not a liberal-conservative faceoff, but a contest between two middle-of-the-roaders faced with a tight budget. The issue for most voters is this: which of the two politicians can best control spending or cut taxes? It is likely that more people perceive Thompson as being able to do this because Thompson has demonstrated that he can hold the line on spending, whereas Bakalis has no such record to run on. Thompson is well ahead of Bakalis. Two public opinion polls conducted in September showed the governor ahead by a 2-to-1 margin, despite earlier reports from national newspaper columnists saying Thompson was only 5 percentage points ahead of Bakalis. Another poll conducted by Richard Day Research of Urbana in mid-August shows Gov. Thompson ahead by 27 per cent. The Day survey (see pages 7-10) indicates that voters think more highly of Thompson than of Bakalis. It also showed Thompson is held in higher esteem than President Jimmy Carter, but that was before Camp David and Carter's success with Congress. Thompson's record Thompson's accomplishments may be few (he has only had a two-year term), but he has shown skill as a caretaker governor. He has created a noncombative "everyman" style which stands in sparkling contradistinction to former Gov. Daniel Walker's preference for heated confrontation. Walker fought with everyone — Republicans and regular Democrats, fellow statewide officeholders, the legislature and reporters. And while he presented himself as an old style populist, his delivery was never as successfully relaxed as Thompson's tee-shirt, geewhiz approach to the governorship. Moreover, it's possible to argue that Walker accomplished less in four years than Thompson has in two. The public is clearly happy with a governor who handles himself well in public while dealing with continuing problems: overflowing prisons, an understaffed child welfare agency and bureaucracy. Thompson has given more money to the Department of Children and Family Services (DCFS) for extra caseworkers, begun two new prisons and promised two more, and reorganized minor agencies. Yet the caseload for DCFS social workers is still atrocious (50-1), the prisons are still overcrowded so that two and three inmates live in cells designed for one, and the bureaucracy is more complex than ever, with few of the major agencies having been touched. But if Thompson has few solutions to the problems, he hasn't increased taxes statewide and there have been no major scandals. He has quietly and effectively gone about the job of working with the legislature to hold down spending. And it is a Democratic legislature. Thompson has taken a hard stand against violent crime by signing a tough, new sentencing law and supported construction of new prisons. These are popular positions in a time when many voters are concerned with holding on to what they have. In short, Thompson has shown himself capable of accomplishing what he attempts — even if what he attempts is very little. Until Proposition 13 encouraged a demand for property tax relief, Thompson was set up for an easy reelection bid. Bakalis must be credited, however, with being the first to try turning this demand to his advantage. He lobbied on the floor of the General Assembly fora tax rebate bill, which finally passed. Pressure was then on the governor to sign it, and the bill was publicized for all it was worth by Bakalis and Democratic legislative leaders. After Thompson vetoed it, he was left holding the bag, without a plan of his own. 4/November 1978/ Illinois Issues Then he came up with the Thompson Proposition, literally inspired by a dream, he said. The proposition calls for an advisory tax and spending ceiling question on the November ballot. Thompson forces miraculously succeeded in gathering 607,415 signatures on the nonbinding petition aimed at advising the legislature to control spending. Unfortunately many of the petitions were invalidated. Challengers led by Rep. Dave L. Robinson (D., Springfield), went before the State Board of Elections, which ended up invalidating over 15,000 improper signatures, and charges of fraud are under investigation in several counties. But as of mid-October, the Thompson Proposition will be on the November 7 ballot, (see page 2). The governor came out well in this political taffy pull. Apparently the spending ceiling is now synonymous with his name and the petition problems aren't. No one has accused Thompson personally of doing anything wrong or of knowingly allowing any wrong. Meanwhile, Bakalis is remembered as having opposed the symbolic gesture in favor of a less popular concept — a three-point property tax rebate program, vaunted much in television ads. Unfortunately for the Democrats, Richard Day's poll shows that voters prefer a spending lid to a rebate on property taxes by a 3-to-1 edge. Bakalis' tax plan But, Bakalis countered with a new three-point tax cut program in early October. The Bakalis program would give the average Illinois taxpayer a 20 per cent reduction in property taxes through rebates. It would cost $1 billion over four years, which Thompson said would be detrimental to the state's school system and to basic services of state government. It was Bakalis' last major salvo as of mid-October, and it had all the signs of political desperation because Bakalis was proven wrong on the cost of his own tax cut program. He originally said it would cost $360 million - actually the cost for the fourth year. He finally admitted his error after the TV cameras were turned off following the final gubernatorial debate in Chicago on October 12. The four televised debates sponsored by the Illinois League of Women Voters clarified position differences between Thompson and Bakalis. For example, Bakalis is unalterably opposed to a gas tax increase. Thompson says he would support a boost if bond funds and federal dollars are exhausted, and if the public still supports needed road work. Thompson implied in debate No. 3 that such a gas tax increase will be necessary since "we've just about exhausted our bonding capacity" and since the feds have been unresponsive to pressure for more funds. But Bakalis blasted the whole state road program, saying the road fund is virtually bankrupt and calling it a "paper program." Bakalis also said the state should stop diverting road fund money to non-road fund uses, such as the State Police and some functions of the Secretary of State's Office. Bakalis argued against using bond money to match federal road money, saying it "is an extremely dangerous form of financial manipulation, and one that will ultimately result in fiscal chaos." Voters have also been offered a choice as to how they want the governor to handle public utilities. Bakalis wants to place a one-year moratorium on rate increases. He would call for the voluntary resignations of the five members of the Illinois Commerce Commission (IICC), responsible for reviewing utility rate requests. He would appoint more consumer-oriented members of the IICC and demand that they "go into emergency session if need be and reconsider or revoke increases that are going to work severe hardships on families throughout Illinois." During the second debate Gov. Thompson seemed surprised by the Bakalis IICC stand. "It's popular — even populist to campaign against monopolies. But what are they to do about inflation and higher construction costs?'This sounds like the governor fixing utility rates," Thompson said. In debate No. 3 Bakalis was asked if he thought appointing a new IICC could have a negative effect on utility firms and their ability to operate. "I think the key is for a governor to appoint a consumer-oriented commission. I wouldn't expect to have no rate increase but it's a matter of degree, of balance, of having people ask hard questions about any proposed increases." Thompson defended the record of the IICC under his administration, insisting "only four electrical rates have been increased in my 18 months, none of them significant, and only one gas company increase has been given that was anywhere near what was asked." The two candidates also disagreed about whether the state income tax should be indexed — that is, tied to the rate of inflation to prevent loss of buying power. Bakalis supports indexing "in principle." Thompson says he does not believe it necessary since the state's flat rate income tax tends to blunt the impact of inflation. The candidates also disagreed on the issue of Illinois coal use. Thompson said the state is committed to research permitting the use of high-sulfur Illinois coal without polluting the atmosphere. "But we won't be able to do our share in Illinois," said Thompson, "until the federal administration gives us a comprehensive energy policy." Bakalis replied, "It's only fair to point out that after 18 months, we still don't have any state energy policy either, and that would be a good first step." Bakalis supports a bill that would increase pension benefits for the state employees' pension system by 1 percent and employer contributions by 1 1/2 per cent. He said the bill is needed for retirees hit with inflation and by the system itself, since liabilities have been underfinanced. Gov. Thompson answers that "Illinois has improved the ratio of assets to liabilities over the last five years." Thompson says alternate plans are being considered to increase funding, and increased efforts have been made to hold down liabilities during his term. On the Regional Transportation Authority (RTA), Bakalis does not like proposals to raise more money through increased taxes in the six-county area it serves. Instead, he suggests that a bond issue might be floated to keep the financially strapped system alive. Thompson agrees that a tax increase is not the answer, but criticizes Bakalis for inconsistency on supporting bond issuance. Unfortunately, none of these issues matters very much to the voters at large, with the possible exception of property tax reduction methods. The public is crying out for fiscal management, and Thompson has proven he can hold down spending responsibly. And so, he will win the election. Bakalis is going to lose the election because his image is worse than Thompson's. In the final weeks before the election Bakalis must try to convice November 1978/Illinois Issues/5 people that Thompson has been a bad governor, something few people will accept since taxes have not been raised on the state level and spending has been limited. And Thompson has a new baby daughter. Bakalis calls the property tax "Thompson's tax," but few believe him. Few are willing to blame a governor for the costly actions of a harried county assessor. Thompson still has a reputation as Mr. Clean — a stern prosecutor of the criminals in private and public life. He won an election two years ago by over 1.3 million votes. Many things can and will erode his margin: a good campaign by Bakalis in the last weeks before the election, Thompson's fumbling of the petition football, and the likelihood of a much lower turnout in a non-presidential year. But the governor's lead appears insurmountable. Other state campaigns Elsewhere, a truly close statewide contest is shaping up between Democrat Jerome Cosentino and Republican James Skelton in the race for state treasurer. Both candidates are relative unknowns, and the treasurer's office is just a little misunderstood by many voters. The treasurer's office is no longer a powerful post, since it merely oversees the receipt, deposit and investment of state funds, and disburses funds upon order of the comptroller. The comptroller is actually the state's chief fiscal officer, charged with keeping an eye on state expenditures. But many voters doubtless confuse the two since there was no such animal as a comptroller until 1970. In both the treasurer's race and comptroller's race the Democrat is ahead, according to the Day poll. But over half of those polled were undecided, probably because none of the candidates is well-known. For comptroller, Democrat Roland Burris has an 18 per cent lead over Republican John W. Castle — 59 per cent to 41 per cent. In other races, all the early-on favorites are still ahead. The most that can be said for the underdogs is that they have raised (in desperation) some severe questions, either about their opponent's competency or about their own. For example, in the attorney general's race Richard J. Troy, the Democratic candidate, cast aspersions early in the campaign upon the ethics of Republican incumbent William J. Scott, in a TV cartoon, implying Scott was up to no good with campaign funds. The cartoon showed Scott cavorting in a "secret" cash stash in a bank box safe. Troy later sullied his own credibility by declaring that Scott had not done enough to help prosecute heroin traffickers. He said Illinois was fast "becoming the heroin capital of the world." Of course, the Illinois attorney general has had absolutely no criminal jurisdiction, but Troy forgot to mention this. Scott has pushed repeatedly for the power to convene statewide grand juries to investigate inter-county criminal matters. Scott was jubilant when the Illinois Supreme Court in early October upheld his authority to initiate criminal prosecution where county state's attorneys raise no objection. But Chicago Democrats are staunchly opposed to the removal of local power. The campaign charges unleashed by Sharon Sharp, the Republican candidate for secretary of state, against incumbent Alan J. Dixon have been no less harsh. She criticized his refusal to take a breathalyzer test when he was arrested for drunk driving in California earlier this year. She also accused Dixon of unethical conduct in accepting some campaign contributions from 500 individuals and businesses — driving schools and auto dealerships — which his office regulates. Dixon retorted that he is the first secretary of state to report all campaign contributions, but Sharp had reported only those over $150 as required by law. It has been a hardhitting but above-board campaign, and although Sharp will lose, she may have cut into Dixon's lead and certainly has a future in Republican campaigns for statewide office. In the battle for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Charles H. Percy, underdog Alex Seith has nipped at the heels of his venerable foe like a terrier on a short chain. Seith can't seem to get at Percy, who seldom replies directly or takes much apparent notice of Seith's charges, which have centered on inflationary overspending. Congressional races There appears to be one very surprisingly close race for a U.S. Congressional seat in the upstate 13th District, which takes in most of Lake and Kane counties and a part of McHenry. U.S. Rep. Robert McClory (R., Illinois) is being challenged by a heavy-spending grass roots campaign from Elgin lawyer Frederick J. Steffen, former Kane County Democratic chairman. Steffen has spent between $35,000 and $45,000. with two offices in the district and six campaign staffers, according to his campaign manager Marc Cutright, who ran Jimmy Carter's Illinois campaign two years ago. Steffen has received campaign help from the national Democratic party, including a visit to the district by Vice President Walter F. Mondale. The unexpected death of maverick Democratic Congressman Ralph H. Metcalfe at age 68 on October 10 left an open spot on the ballot in the 1st Congressional District race. Metcalfe was a shoe-in for reelection, having never received less than 90 per cent of the vote in a general election. But he was a political free agent, who had broken with Mayor Richard J. Daley and regular Democrats in 1972 and had continued to feud with them after the mayor's death. However, machine ward committeemen met in secret to choose a successor from their own ranks. It was reported October 13 they had picked 21st Ward Ald. Bennett M. Stewart to replace the popular Metcaife on the ballot, apparently freezing out independent candidates including Metcalfe's son. Maybe the closest congressional race of all will be down in the 22nd District in southwest Illinois. Former state Sen. Terry L. Bruce (D., Olney) is slugging it out there with Republican Dan Crane of Danville, the dentist brother of presidential hopeful Philip M. Crane (running this November for reelection to Congress from the 12th District). This seat was opened by the retirement of Congressman George Shipley (D., Olney) after 20 years in Congress. A close race is also expected in the 10th District on the affluent North Shore of Chicago's lakefront, where incumbent Rep. Abner Mikva won two years ago by the slimmest of margins. State Rep. John Edward Porter (R., Evanston) is the Republican candidate in the district race. Both the 10th and 22nd district races have gained national attention. Pundits forecast a low turnout for the election and speculate this will be an advantage for statewide Democrats whose Chicago organization always turns out the vote when apathy may keep Republicans at home. 6/November 1978/ Illinois Issues
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