By RICHARD DAY
Survey shows incumbents ahead
Controlling state costs A NONPARTISAN survey of Illinois voters late this summer shows that Republican incumbent Gov. James R. Thompson is likely to defeat his Democratic challenger Michael J. Bakalis in the November 7 gubernatorial election. At the time of the poll, Thompson drew 55 per cent of the vote, Bakalis had 28 per cent, and 17 per cent of the voters were undecided. The survey indicates five reasons for Thompson's popularity:
1. Voters think more highly of him than Bakalis. Asked to rate their esteem of the candidates on a 0 to 10 scale, with 10 representing the highest esteem, voters gave Thompson a 6.3 overall rating, the highest of any political figure, including President Jimmy Carter. Bakalis received a rating of 5.2, essentially a neutral rating. 2. Thompson is better known. Only 3 per cent of the voters failed to recognize his name while 12 per cent said they didn't recognize the name of Michael Bakalis. 3. Voters who said they support Thompson cited his ability or his record. Bakalis' backers were more likely to support him because he was from the "right party." 4. When asked if they would prefer a ceiling on state spending (Thompson's plan) or a rebate on property taxes (Bakalis' plan), voters chose the spending lid by a 3-to-1 margin. 5. Law-and-order issues are important to the voters, and Thompson has on record the passage of the Class X legislation during his administration. But there are some reasons to believe that Bakalis will gain more votes by November 7. The most important is that 47 per cent of the voters call themselves Democrats (34 per cent said they were Republicans, and 19 per cent Independents). While party identification is not an absolute indicator of one's vote, party identification is clearly one of the most effective indicators among the variables in an election. Another factor that appears to favor Bakalis is that the undecided vote looks much like a Democratic vote. Those who were undecided on a gubernatorial candidate are disproportionately Democratic and Catholic and are more likely to be female and from downstate. This group also tends to be less issue-oriented than those who declared a preference. When it comes time to make a choice November 7, they are more likely to choose Bakalis over Thompson because of party considerations. A second interpretation of this undecided — and apparently Democratic — group is that they don't particularly like Bakalis and will resolve their dilemma by not voting. But even if Bakalis receives a large share of the undecided vote, he can't win unless he persuades already committed Thompson voters to switch. A very critical problem for Bakalis is that he's running very badly in the Chicago metropolitan area. In his 1976 election for comptroller, he did very well in this same area. Bakalis v. Thompson Voters were asked who they would choose as governor if the election were held tomorrow. They were then asked how strongly they would support their choice (see table 1). At the time of the poll in mid-August, 17 per cent of the Richard Day Research conducted a telephone survey of 778 voters during mid-August of Illinois residents likely to vote in the November 7 general election. The weighted sample of 811 responses and the polling procedures used ensure accuracy within 2 or 3 per cent in 95 cases out of 190. The sample was developed to reflect the percentage of votes cast by regions (Chicago, Cook County suburbs, five collar counties surrounding Cook, six Downstate urban counties and the 90 rural Downstate counties) during the 1974 statewide election. As a result, the initial sample was weighed to reflect this outcome within 1 per cent. Some of the information contained in this article was published previously in "The Illinois Voter," a series used by several newspapers around the state WLS-TV in Chicago. A similar Richard Day Research survey conducted before the 1976 election was within 1 per cent of the final division of the state electorate. The interviewing was conducted between August 9 and August 17, by telephone, from two central locations by trained, supervised interviewers. Interviewing was conducted in the evenings during the week and during the day and evenings on the weekends. In the six-county Chicago metropolitan area, random digit dialing was used to avoid the bias of unlisted phone numbers. For each name or number selected in the sample, a maximum of five call backs was made at different times of the calling period. November 1978/Illinois Issues/7
voters had not made up their minds. Combining the strong and the less strong support for each candidate, James Thompson would have received 55 per cent and Michael Bakalis 28 per cent. If the 17 per cent undecided vote is divided in proportion to those who made a choice, Thompson would have won 67 per cent to Bakalis' 33 per cent. Table 1 also indicates that strong supporters of Thompson outnumber the strong Bakalis voters two to one. Those who expressed a choice for governor were also asked why they support their choice. Table 2 shows seven categories which include 514 of the most frequent explanations. Respondents were also asked why they would not vote for the other candidate. Table 3 shows seven categories which include a total of 554 responses. Examination of the Thompson vote and the Bakalis vote shows that Bakalis voters are nearly three times more likely to vote against Thompson because he is a Republican than Thompson voters are likely to vote for Thompson on a party basis. Thirty-one per cent of the Bakalis voters say that Thompson "has done a bad job" or "hasn't done anything." On the other hand, Thompson voters generally say that they wouldn't vote for Bakalis because they "don't know him" (37%), "don't like him" (19%) or simply that they prefer Thompson (17%). Geographically, the traditional Republican areas of suburban Cook and the collar county areas went for Thompson over Bakalis approximately 60-20 with the rest undecided (see table 4). The Thompson vote in the collar counties appears to be particularly solid: only 12 per cent is undecided and he has 65 per cent. But the traditional Democratic Chicago area is not supporting Bakalis enough (38%) to offset Thompson's strength there (50%). Only 12 per cent of the Chicago vote is undecided which must be particularly distressing to Bakalis. With 60 per cent of the Illinois voting population residing in the Chicago metropolitan area (Cook County plus the five collar counties), Bakalis must come out of the area at least even with Thompson and then hope to win the edge downstate.
The Chicago metro area provided the margin for Bakalis in his successful 1976 comptroller race against incumbent George W. Lindberg, but the voters in the area in 1978 seem to be saying that they have two standards — one for statewide offices and another for governor. Mike Hewlett can attest to this.
Thompson also appears to be running well across the rest of the state except for the downstate urban counties (Madison, Peoria, Rock Island, Sangamon, St. Clairand Winnebago), where Bakalis leads Thompson 48 per cent to 34 per cent. These downstate urban counties account for approximately 11 per cent of the total vote. The largest concentration of support for Bakalis is among the youngest group. He is doing slightly better than his statewide average of 28 per cent among voters between the ages of 18 and 35. Bakalis is also doing better than his average among Catholics (who are disproportionately Democratic), and Thompson is doing well among the Protestant voters. The largest concentration of undecided voters by religion is among the Catholics.
Although black voters generally define themselves as strong Democrats, 25 per cent of the black voters said they would choose Thompson for governor. Support for the candidates by sex shows 55 per cent of the Thompson voters are men, while 53 per cent of the Bakalis voters are women. The largest group of undecided voters are women. (The sample was evenly divided among men and women.) At the time of the poll, the typical undecided voter in the gubernatorial contest was likely to be a Democratic female and Catholic, age 45-65, with a household income between $5,000 and $15,000 and from either the Cook County suburbs or rural downstate counties. On the basis of this profile, it appears that a significant portion of the traditional Democratic vote has not yet decided whether they will support their party's candidate. Spending control There are two main issues in this election: "taxes and spending" and "law and order." And both appear to belong to Thompson. The survey shows that voters are not nearly as concerned with rebates or even tax reductions as they are with controlling government costs (see table 5). On a scale of 0 through 10 (10 is of highest importance), a total of 78 per cent of the voters gave the issued controlling the costs of state government a rating between 7 and 10. In addition, 72 per cent of the respondents said they were willing to face a decrease in state services in order to keep their taxes at the same level; 28 per cent said they were not (see table 6). Thus the loss 8/November 1978/Illinois Issues of services is considered to be less threatening than increased taxation. The Bakalis rebate plan for property taxes and the Thompson plan to place a ceiling on state spending and taxes were both explained to those polled but without the candidate's name tied to his plan. A clear majority opposed the Bakalis plan (61%) and supported the Thompson ceiling plan (77%). The respondents were then asked to choose between the two plans. Seventy-two per cent preferred the ceiling plan while 21 per cent chose the rebate plan; 6 per cent said neither and 1 per cent said both (see table 7). Thompson's advisory proposition to impose a ceiling on state taxes and spending has apparently captured the tax issue. Law and order There are two parts to the law-and-order issue. One is prosecution of welfare and Medicaid fraud and abuse, which 84 per cent of the respondents rated between 7 and 10. The other is support for stronger law enforcement and prosecution, and 78 per cent of the respondents gave this issue high ratings. Thompson's leadership on the Class X legislation, along with his career as a prosecutor, seem to give him credibility as a law-and-order candidate. But the prosecution of welfare and Medicaid fraud and abuse has not been addressed much by the candidates. Given Bakalis' low standing in the polls, it could be worth his while to tackle this issue since it appears of such great concern to voters. Jobs, roads, fed funds On the other issues, three-fifths of the respondents rated increasing jobs in Illinois as highly important, while 13 per cent rated it in the important (4-6) category. A slight majority (55%) feel that improving highways, roads and bridges is very important, while 10 per cent rated this issue in the 0-3 range. The idea of "free money" — more federal money for Illinois — was rated fairly high but most of the high rating comes from Democrats — largely Chicago Democrats.
School aid, welfare
Of all the issues related to government funded services, increasing state aid to public schools received the second lowest rating — 6.3 on the 0-10 scale. The issue with the least support was increased welfare payments to the needy, 5.9. The lack of support for this issue is especially interesting since the respondents were allowed to provide their own standard of "need," and they still gave it very little support. It would appear that the area where voters strongly agree the state should spend more funds is law enforcement, including prosecution of welfare fraud. Taxes A number of questions dealt with the issue of taxation. Probably one of the more controversial tax issues likely to come before the next General Assembly and governor is the question of increasing the gasoline tax by 1 per cent in order to pay for road repair. Respondents were nearly evenly divided between support and opposition to this question. Voters were asked to name the most unfair of the three major state taxes — sales, income and property. A 58 per cent majority chose the property tax as the most unfair, followed by the income tax (23%) and sales tax (18%). Among these same three taxes, the sales tax was named the most fair by 59 per cent; not suprisingly, the property tax was named as the fairest tax by only 12 per cent (see table 8). Other races Lopsided races and lack of name recognition characterize the other statewide contests. In many cases these two characteristics complement each other. In races where neither candidate is known, the races are very much undecided. The undecided vote for treasurer is 56 per cent, and for comptroller it is 59 per cent. If the undecided vote is apportioned proportionately, then Democrat Roland Burris, who received 25 percent to Republican John W. Castle's 18 per cent, would receive 59 per cent for comptroller. And Democrat Jerome A. Cosentino, who received 27 per cent over Republican James M. Skelton's 21 per cent, would receive 56 per cent for treasurer after the undecided votes are apportioned. These Democrats would win simply because there are more Democrats than Republicans in Illinois. When little is known about a candidate, voters tend to vote on party lines. In both races, 49 per cent of the Republicans and 49 per cent of the Democrats prefer the candidate of their party. The difference in the outcome is that Democrats account for approximately 48 per cent and Republicans 34 per cent of the sample. At the time of the poll, Republican incumbent William J. Scott already had a majority (52%) of the vote for attorney general, and 26 per cent were undecided.
November 1978/Illinois Issues/9 It seems unlikely that Democrat Richard Troy would have a chance, since he is virtually unknown. If the undecided vote is apportioned, then Scott would have received 70 per cent with Troy getting 30 per cent.
The race for secretary of state is equally lopsided in favor of the incumbent, Democrat Alan J. Dixon, who received 62 per cent of the vote at the time of the poll. Republican challenger Sharon Sharp received only 15 percent, and 23 per cent were undecided. Proportionately dividing the undecided group would give Dixon 80 per cent of the vote. Republican Charles H. Percy already had 58 per cent of the vote in his reelection bid for U.S. senator; Alex Seith had 27 per cent. If the 15 per cent undecided vote is apportioned in the same way, it would be 68 per cent for Percy and 32 per cent for Seith. One of the best explanations for these results is to look at the esteem and name recognition that the candidates had at the time of the poll. These two measures have proven to be very reliable indicators in predicting election results (see table 9). In the race for governor, for example, Thompson got more high ratings than Bakalis in every region except for the downstate urban counties, which is the only area where Bakalis had more supporters than Thompson. Percy received much higher esteem ratings than Seith. Only in the downstate rural counties did Seith match Percy in percentage of high ratings. More instructive, however, is the number of respondents who gave high ratings; for Seith it was 40 respondents and for Percy it was 298. The same uneven findings appear in the races for attorney general and secretary of state. In terms of party support Thompson received high ratings (7-10) from 38 per cent of the Democrats while Bakalis received high ratings from 17 percent of the Republicans (see table 10). The most crucial group, however, was the independents. Thompson received high ratings from 43 per cent of the independents compared to 16 per cent for Bakalis. Percy received high ratings from each group but not as many as Thompson. But Percy received more high ratings from Democrats than Seith. Recap Democratic candidates have had over two months since this survey was conducted to cut into the apparently large margins of the Republican big three incumbents — Thompson, Percy and Scott. Bakalis has the best chance of the Democrats to close the gap against the incumbents, but, as the survey shows, this chance is slim.
Here's why: First, Thompson has a significantly higher esteem rating among voters; second, Thompson has greater name recognition than Bakalis; third, Thompson has an advantage on the issues. Thompson's spending lid plan is much more popular than Bakalis' rebate plan, and Thompson is perceived to be a law-and-order candidate because of his Class X legislation. There has been considerable discussion regarding the way signatures for the Thompson proposition were collected, but it is unlikely that many voters will link Thompson himself to these irregularities. Finally, Thompson is ahead in most parts of the state, including the City of Chicago, and even if Bakalis gets all of the undecided votes there (12%), he still cannot win. Bakalis needs some of the voters who are presently supporting Thompson, and they do not seem inclined to switch. The only issue available to Bakalis that would have any significant impact on the voters appears to be increased prosecution of welfare and Medicaid fraud and abuse. The survey clearly shows how strongly voters feel about this issue. So far, neither candidate has been willing to address it. Percy appears to have an easy race also. Hisesteem rating, while lower than Thompson's, is higher than Seith's; more important is the fact that 69 per cent of those surveyed in August did not recognize Seith's name, as opposed to 4 per cent for Percy. The situation is similar in the attorney general's race: 85 per cent of the voters do not know who Troy is and his esteem rating is less than neutral among those who do know him. Barring any catastrophic revelations by the federal grand jury in Chicago investigating Scott's handling of previous campaign funds, Scott's reelection seems assured (see October, "Doing justice to William J. Scott"). Dixon's reelection as secretary of state seems as certain as Percy's. He is the only Democratic incumbent running statewide. Sharp's esteem rating among those who know her is higher than the other statewide candidates challenging incumbents, but 79 per cent of the voters are unfamiliar with her name. The races for comptroller and treasurer will be much closer. The Democrats, Burris and Cosentino, are not much better known than the Republicans, Castle and Skelton. Without name recognition, however, voters are more likely to vote their party, and there are more Democrats than Republicans in the state. But the Republican victories at the top could bring Castle and Skelton the necessary votes. It's a toss-up.
10/November 1978/Illinois Issues
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