Letters
Business incentives
Editors: Dan Elsass' article in the December Illinois Issues was interesting in discussing the aggressive and costly efforts of different states to increase industrial employment and the tax base in the respective states. There is no doubt that incentives and aggressive industrial development efforts are important. Nonetheless, I would suggest that the article did not adequately concern itself with the need for Illinois to keep the industry it has.
High and noncompetitive employer costs in Illinois for workmen's compensation and unemployment insurance head the list of general employer complaints. Average costs for manufacturers have more than quadrupled for workmen's compensation, and tripled for unemployment insurance taxes since the awful 1975 amendments. Illinois is considerably more costly than most states, including all neighbor states.
The trend of soaring state spending and high and rising state general obligation debt in Illinois means higher future state taxes for industry, and that bothers businessmen, particularly small manufacturers.
- Orville V. Bergren, President Illinois Manufacturers' Association
On Voting Patterns
Editors: The recent series by Peter W. Colby and Paul Michael Green on voting patterns in Illinois and other states has been an excellent analysis of aggregate election returns. Their conclusions are substantial, although sometimes surprising.
However, the unwary reader of "Vote Power: Suburbs Up, Cities Down" in your November magazine may be tempted to conclude something which Colby and Green did not: namely that the Republican party is in better shape than it is generally thought to be. Colby and Green base their argument on presidential politics. But it is important to realize that presidential politics and partisan politics have become increasingly disassociated. Indeed, this is why Republican presidental candidates have been successful. Survey evidence conclusively shows that Eisenhower and Nixon victories in 1952, 1956 and 1968 were made possible by Democratic votes.
In addition the 1976 Gallup Opinion Index shows that only 23 per cent consider themselves Republican. More ominously, the 18-24-year-olds were 20 per cent Republican. After the 1976 elections, the House was 292-143 Democratic, the Senate 62-38. At the state level, Republicans held 12 governorships, controlled 18 per cent of the state legislatures and less than 30 per cent of all legislative seats.
An analysis of the 1976 vote in California shows how weak the Republican preferences are in that state. First, the Democrats won 27 out of 43 House seats (63 per cent). More interestingly, Ford, a comparatively weak Republican candidate, ran ahead of his party's congressional candidates in 31 out of 43 districts (72 per cent). Indeed the disassociation of the presidential and congressional vote is so apparent that Republican congressional candidates, on the average, ran 6 per cent behind Ford. I must admit Colby and Green's argument is more persuasive when applied to Illinois where Republican party strength at all levels is greater than nationally.
Finally, one may wonder whether the suburbs are likely to be good hunting ground for Republicans in the future. It has been shown that in the Midwest (but not the East) Democratic identification predominates in the suburbs by about 4/3 margins and that suburban Democrats are not less loyal than urban residents in voting for Democratic presidential candidates. In presi- dential voting, the suburbs are respondingto national trends.
Republican presidential chances are good after 1980, not because of the suburbs but because of the increasingly apartisan character of presidential voting in the nation as a whole. But if the Republican party is to recover, it must rebuild its shattered base. Some of this rebuilding appearsto have taken place in 1978.
- David H. Everson
Associate professor, political studies, Sangamon State University
Editors: Professor Everson's comments are useful additions to our material. He is, of course, quite correct. Nationally, the Republican party is very weak and has been for a long time.
However, we do take issue with the notion that the suburbs are not "good hunting ground" for Republicans. In vote percentages, 1976 Republican congressional candidates captured 48.5 per cent of the total suburban district vote versus 46.2 per cent of the rural, 41.2 percent of the mixed and only 35.1 per cent of the urban. Prior to the 1974 "Watergate" elections, Republicans controlled 70 of the 125 suburban congressional districts. Since I then, "the incumbency factor" has helped hold Republican totals down.
As for Republican presidential chances in the 1980's, we agree with Professor Everson that they I are "good," even if we disagree on the reasons. Our I analysis indicated that key big states are becoming easier for Republicans to win. In California there have been five Republican presidential victoriesin 1 the last six elections, while in Illinois the GOP has 1 a recent won-loss record of 4-2.
Despite trends of ticket-splitting and voters independence, we believe that past presidential preferences in Illinois and across the country can I be used to gauge political trends for future presidential elections. In short, the final indicator of party preference is the ballot box. Suburban America votes Republican in presidential elect tions. In the 1976 presidential race, Ford obtained 53.4 per cent of the suburban district vote versus 50.8 per cent of the mixed, 49.9 per cent of the rural and only 44 per cent of the urban vote.
-Peter W. Colby
Paul Michael Green
Professors of public service,
Governors State University
State spending
Editors: It was a pleasure to read Richard Kolhauser's article "The Growth In State Spending" which appeared in the January issue, Mr. Kolhauser took a subject which is often considered too complex to be understood and presented a concise and clear explanation. Douglas L. Whitley, Executive Vice President Taxpayers' Federation of Illinois
March 1979/Illinois Issues/12
