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QUICK NOW -- What do these Illinois politicians have in common: Paul Simon, Richard E. Carver, Daniel Walker, William J. Scott, Alan J. Dixon, Michael J. Bakalis, Richard B. Ogilvie, Cal Skinner Jr. and Thomas M. fully?

The answer is: They've all been mentioned -- at least in passing -- as potential candidates for the Senate seat now held by Adlai E. Stevenson III. Some of them are unlikely candidates at best. Two already have announced their candidacies. Two have indicated they will not run. But some are waiting to see how the others on the list decide to spend the coming campaign season.

First things first. What happened to Stevenson? Why did he bow out?

Well, the senator is a tough man to figure out. And his self-contradictory statements of recent months don't make it any easier to explain his decision. First Stevenson was criticizing President Carter and thinking out loud about challenging him for the presidency. Then he was backing away from that position but still not sure he wanted to seek another term in the Senate. Finally, he said he had made a decision but wouldn't tell anyone what it was.

Even when he announced, he didn't provide a single clue as to his motivation. Nor did he make himself available for questioning. So the question remains: Why would an incumbent, well-regarded and relatively safe senator step aside?

Shortly after the November election, Stevenson mused to reporters in Springfield that the hard time Sen. Charles H. Percy had in getting reelected signaled the beginning of hard times for incumbents. From now on, Stevenson said, incumbency would be a handicap rather than an advantage. He sounded as if he were having second thoughts about whether a tough race -- something he certainly isn't used to -- would be worth the prize of another term in the Senate.

On the other hand, Stevenson has advanced in seniority, and now he has an important role in the Senate. Congressional observers say he is respected on Capitol Hill and relatively influential. There has been no hint of scandal, nor has Stevenson's privacy been particularly compromised by his tenure in public office.

He said in his criticism of Carter he felt the party lacked leadership. Yet, in the only chance he has had to exert leadership in the state party -- the flap in late 1977 over slating of candidates for statewide office -- Stevenson came out looking like anything but a leader.

Whatever the motivation behind Stevenson's back-and-forth motion, it produced some results on the home front.

Skinner, a Republican state representative from Crystal Lake, was the first to" announce his Senate candidacy Although he is not generally regarded as a serious threat for statewide office, Skinner knows how to draw attention and, given money to pay for it, he could stage an interesting campaign.

Whether Skinner gets the chance will depend on what happens to Scott. Before the attorney general was indicted April 9 on federal income tax charges, he had formally announced his candidacy. He is one of the party's all-time leading vote-getters, and Skinner said before the indictment he would not stay in the race if Scott was a candidate. If Scott can escape his legal entanglement Skinner will probably make good on his decision to drop out.

Skinner's exit from the fray, however isn't likely to leave Scott with a clear field. Carver, the 41-year-old lumber dealer and mayor of Peoria, is likely to see to that. Carver has been moving around the state for more than a year, drumming up support, media contacts, funding possibilities and all the other things he will need to run for statewide office.

Carver has not formally announced. But as early as last summer, he confided to anyone who would listen that he planned to run unless he found some good reason not to do so. A lack of money would be a good reason. Scott's candidacy, he said recently, is not a good reason. "I can very truthfully say that any decision I make is not going to be influenced by Bill Scott's announcement of his candidacy," Carver said.

Another Republican who might make the race but probably won't is former Gov. Ogilvie. Ogilvie, firmly ensconced in a comfortable and lucrative law practice, and still remembering, no doubt, the way he was treated in 1972 by Walker, is about the least likely candidate on the list.

The Democratic side of the ballot was

34 / May 1979 / Illinois Issues

more quiet, as most would-be and might-be candidates waited for Stevenson to tip his hand. The list included: Simon, the former lieutenant governor, Walker victim and now congressman from Southern Illinois; Dixon, a lifelong politician who likes the legislative process and currently benefits from the exposure of the secretary of state's office; Bakalis, former state schools superintendent and comptroller; Walker, currently heading a financially troubled chain of law offices; and former Cook County Assessor Tully.

Simon and Dixon, however, are mutually exclusive. They like each other and would have drawn votes from roughly the same constituencies. It was only natural, therefore, that as Dixon hurried to announce his candidacy, Simon equally hurriedly endorsed him.

Bakalis said after his defeat in the 1978 gubernatorial election, he would not be a candidate again. Yet he's a natural politician, a good campaigner and holds an IOU from the party for agreeing to take on Gov. James R. Thompson last time around.

Walker does not have the money for a statewide campaign and has a history of terrible fund-raising problems. He has, however, been making quiet noises recently about getting back into politics. And Stevenson's seat is the only opening.

Tully, who stepped down voluntarily from the Cook County assessor's job, has the money to start a campaign. But organization Democrats have a tendency to feel that Washington is a place of exile — away from the real power center on the fifth floor of City Hall.

22 / May 1979 / Illinois Issues