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By ROBERT MACKAY

Carter-Kennedy race divides Democrats

[Robert Mackay, a native of Joliet and a reporter with UPI's Washington bureau, is our new columnist in Washington. He replaces Mark Gruenberg, who has joined the staff of a suburban New York newspaper. — Editor]

THE CONSENSUS among the Democratic members of the Illinois congressional delegation is that the battle between President Carter and Sen. Edward Kennedy in the Illinois primary next month will be close, with the winner anyone's guess.

Kennedy seemed to be invincible in early October, before he announced he was running for the nomination, but he has since slipped in popularity and Carter has gained support. Kennedy no longer seems unbeatable — that's the feeling among political observers in Washington.

And in a pivotal decision, Kennedy officials have decided against mounting an all-out effort to win the Florida primary in March and instead will concentrate on later primaries outside the South, such as Illinois, New York and Pennsylvania.

But Kennedy cannot be assured of a victory in Illinois. The politics in the state and within the famed (or in famous if you prefer) Cook County Democratic organization have changed considerably since Mayor Richard J. Daley handed John F. Kennedy the state of Illinois in 1960 and gave JFK the margin he needed to win the presidential election.

Daley was both mayor and Cook County Democratic party chairman and, ruling with an iron hand, was able to turn out a huge vote for the candidate of his choice. Many joked that half the residents of the cemeteries in Chicago voted Democratic on election day.

But the youngest Kennedy brother cannot count on that kind of support from Chicago, and without Chicago Kennedy will be hard put to win Illinois, a state he needs to wrest the nomination away from Carter. And since Kennedy strategists have already made Illinois a key primary state in their campaign, a loss would have a bad psychological effect on Kennedy supporters and give momentum to the Carter reelection bid.

The Illinois Democratic congressional delegation agrees on several points: the once strong Cook County Democratic organization is divided in its support of a presidential candidate for the first time since before Daley took control; Mayor Jane Byrne's flip-flop endorsement of Carter and then Kennedy may have helped Carter more in the long run, since it helped divide the organization and angered some voters who felt Carter got a raw deal from the mayor; and Carter's handling of the Iranian crisis has made him appear like a leader at a time Kennedy was telling voters the country was without leadership.

A definite split

"I think it's going to be an awfully close race," said Congressman Martin Russo of the 3rd District in Chicago. "There is a definite split within the organization. Mayor Byrne's endorsement seems to be helping Carter. Seventy percent of my district is suburban, and if the election were held right now, Kennedy would lose 2-to-1."

Congresswoman Cardiss Collins of Chicago's 7th District agrees Illinois will be a "toss-up," because "Carter has very strong forces working for him outside Cook County." A supporter Kennedy, she says most of the voters in her district — which is 55 percent black and 25 percent Hispanic — are leaning toward Kennedy. Other Chicago South Side congressmen, Stewart Bennett of the 1st District and John Fary of the 5th, said their predominantly black constituents appear to be leaning toward Kennedy. But that doesn't mean they're Kennedy supporters -yet anyway.

"Congressman Stewart is a member of a transportation subcommittee," said Stewart's press aide Rich Weston. "Since Byrne's decision [to endorse Kennedy], I think he's feeling that keeping a line out to [Transportation Secretary Neil] Goldschmidt might be a good idea." Goldschmidt has said Chicago might not get some federal transportation grants since Byrne endorsed Kennedy only about a week after saying she supported Carter's renomination.

Downstate anger

Some political observers have said Byrne's endorsement only served to further anger downstate voters, who feel as if they are being constantly pushed around by Chicago politicians. Not so — or at least not to any great extent, said Terry Michaels, spokesman for Congressman Paul Simon of the 24th District, who endorsed Kennedy on Nov. 20. "There's always a split between downstate and Chicago," said Michaels, who has joined the downstate Committee for Kennedy. "But I don't think people are going to go out and vote for Carter because of any ill feeling toward Jane Byrne." Besides, Michaels said, many of the voters in Southern Illinois were leaning toward Carter before the Byrne endorsement. "That is a very strong southern Baptist area which went for Carter in '76," he said. "If you expect Carter to do well anywhere in Illinois,

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32/February 1980/Illinois Issues


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Washington
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Carter-Kennedy race

it's going to be in that area."

With Carter entrenched in Southern Illinois and still having a good organization left over from '76 in central Illinois, it appears Kennedy will have to sweep Chicago to hope for a victory. And with the split within the organization, that does not appear likely.

But then there is some disagreement about how badly the organization is split. Ironically, Congressman Dan Rostenkowski of the 8th District, who was one of the first members of the organization to question Byrne's endorsement of Kennedy and who tried to keep the slatemaking committee from endorsing a candidate, said, "I don't think it's as much of a split as has been reported in editorials and newspapers. The organization [slate of delegates] always goes uncommitted. Now they're committed to Teddy Kennedy, but they don't seem very enthusiastic."

Who is Rostenkowski going to endorse? For years considered Chicago City Hall's main voice in Washington, Rostenkowski said, "My son, the political situation in Illinois is changing each day. The best thing I can do is keep my mouth shut and stay out of it."

February 1980/Illinois Issues/23


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