The State of the State

The facts of life in Illinois: Grim

WHEN the governor is inaugurated January 10, he'll have to assess the state of the state as well as the state of state government. What's the situation? Here's some statistics designed to show the changes since the last inauguration in 1979. They're the latest available, usually from 1981.

The gross state product in Illinois climbed 23 percent from 1978 to 1982; it reached nearly $150 billion in 1981, according to the Illinois Department of Commerce and Community Affairs (DCCA).

In exports, manufacturing shipments increased 61 percent from 1978 to 1981, bringing in $17 billion in 1980, DCCA figures show. During the same period, however, agricultural shipments increased only half as much, totaling $3.6 billion.

Personal income in Illinois climbed 31.6 percent from 1978 to 1982; it reached $133.7 billion in 1981, DCCA reports. Personal income per capita went from $8,814 in 1978 to $11,576 in 1981.

The unemployment rate in Illinois soared to 12.5 percent of the labor force by October 1982 — 706,000 people were out of work. That's the highest rate since 1948, when the Illinois Department of Labor began to keep records. One usually overlooked reason is the increase in the size of the labor force. From 1978 to October 1982, Illinois' labor force increased 4.5 percent to 5.664 million. During the same period employment fell 2.6 percent to 4.958 million while unemployment rose 118.6 percent to 706,000.

State government's cost of paying unemployment insurance (UI) benefits soared equally high, not only because the number of jobless rose, but also because the amount of benefits per case rose. Springfield has had to borrow from Washington to cover the cost and by July 1982 Illinois owed a staggering $1.630 billion — roughly what the state will spend on UI benefits in 1982. The cost of UI benefits had increased an incredible 78.2 percent from January 1978 to August 1982; the seven-month total for 1982 was $1.130 billion. During the same period, January 1978-August 1982, the maximum weekly benefits for a single worker rose 27.3 percent to $154 while that for a married worker with a family rose twice as much to $206.

Unemployment in manufacturing alone shot up 11 percent from 1978 to 1982, hitting 141,000 in 1981, according to DCCA. During the same period, ironically, manufacturing's share of the gross state product increased by the same percentage, totaling $40 billion in 1981. In two years, from 1978 to 1980, however, the number of manufacturing plants in Illinois slid by 413; the number of plants as of January 1980 was 17,524.

The only yardstick available for measuring business failures, DCCA reports, is the number filing for bankruptcy. Seven-month figures for 1981 show an average of 68 a month. At that rate, the total for 1981 will be 742, nearly double that for 1978.

Farmers may be harvesting more but they are making less. Net income per Illinois farm went from $15,435 in 1978 to $7,043 in 1981, according to the Illinois Department of Agriculture. During the same period, cash receipts of all commodities swelled 16.6 percent, stretching to $7.6 billion in 1981, while net income for all Illinois farms shrank 55.6 percent, shriveling to $754 million.

In housing, from January 1978 to December 1982 so-called "new home starts" will have plummeted a scary 81.2 percent, according to the Association of Illinois Home Builders, whose projections of only 15,000 new homes for 1982 were still on target by October. In 1978 contractors began 79,700 new homes.

In the auto industry, from January 1977 to January 1982, new car sales will have sunk by a sorry 19 percent, according to the Illinois New Car/Truck Dealers Association. In 1979 dealers sold about 626,000 new cars. In 1982, according to the association's six-month figures, they should sell 508,000.

In elementary and secondary education, enrollment may be going down but spending, including teachers' salaries, is going up, according to the Illinois State Board of Education. Enrollment dropped 8.8 percent in the four

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years from academic year (AY) 1978-79 toough AY 1981-82, when it totaled 1.9 billion. School related jobs dipped only 5.4 percent to 184,152. Spending, however, popped up 15.1 percent in four years, from AY 1978-79 through AY 1981-82, when it totaled $5.6 billion. It is the source of that spending that is at issue: federal aid remained at 9 percent, but state aid fell from 44 to 40 percent and local aid rose from 47 to 51 percent. According to the schedules set by the state's 1,000-plus districts, the median salary for beginning teachers shot up 24.8 percent in the four years to $12,600.

State government's cost in paying welfare benefits, medical as well as income, has literally skyrocketed, according to the Illinois Department of Public Aid (DPA). DPA kept calendar year (CY) records in 1979, switching to state fiscal year (SPY) records by 1982. The problem lies on the medical benefits side where costs are rising faster than the caseload. Spending for all medical benefits spiraled up 26.3 percent from CY 1979 through SPY 1982, when it reached $1.2 billion. At the same time, the average monthly caseload for medical benefits, however, climbed only 18.5 percent to reach 501,118. On the income benefits side, the largest program, Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), is usually considered the best yardstick. (DPA figures for AFDC, though, include the amounts for both medical and income benefits since recipients are eligible for both.) Total spending for AFDC has jumped 22.5 percent from CY 1979 through SPY 1982, when it stood at $1.3 billion. The average monthly caseload, however, went up only 10.6 percent to 228,853.

In transportation, Illinois is spending less and not surprisingly doing less to improve roads, according to the Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT). All spending for Illinois roads sagged 14.4 percent from SPY 1978 through SPY 1982, when it was at $570 million. One reason is the shift in the source of spending; federal aid rose from 57.5 to about 64 percent while state aid fell from 32.9 to about 30 percent and local aid fell from 9.6 to about 6 percent. Of the 1,700 miles of federal interstate and 17,000 miles of state highways, only the last 27 miles of I-255, the bypass around East St. Louis, is not finished. Despite the fact that widening, resurfacing and other work necessary to maintain roads continues, the backlog remains at 3,000 miles. Illinois is spending more to improve mass transit, though this is for capital subsidies not operating costs. Capital subsidies from the state went up 8.2 percent from SPY 1978 through SPY 1982, when they totaled $55.5 million.

From SPY 1978 through SPY 1981 the crime rate in Illinois sneaked up a scant 1.2 percent to 4,946 crimes per 100,000 persons in 1981, according to the Illinois Department of Law Enforcement. During the same period, the actual number of so-called "crime index" offenses — murder, rape, robbery, etc. — reached 546,775, up 2.8 percent.

Illinois prisons have reached, but not exceeded, capacity since 1978, thanks to the opening of three new prisons in East Moline, Hillsboro and Centralia. The population at Illinois' 13 adult prisons was 13,245 (capacity) in SPY 1982, an increase of 24.8 percent from SPY 1978, according to the Illinois Department of Corrections.

In energy — electricity and natural gas for residential customers — it's no surprise that consumption has gone down while prices have gone up. According to the Illinois Commerce Commission, for example, Commonwealth Edison (ComEd), the state's largest producer of electricity, had 3.7 percent more customers in 1981 than in 1978. Total consumption, however, dipped 2.6 percent, while average consumption per residence dropped 6.1 percent to 6,291 kilowatts in 1981. Despite the drop in consumption, customers paid a total of 49.9 percent more because ComEd's price per kilowatt rose from 4.66 to 7.17 cents. For natural gas, Illinois Power (IP), the state's third largest such utility, claimed 5.7 percent more residential customers in 1981 than in 1978. Yet total residential consumption plunged 17.8 percent and average consumption per residence fell even further, by 22.2 percent to 1,158 therms in 1981. Again, despite the drop in consumption, residential customers paid a total of 48.3 percent more, because the price per therm for IP rose from 22.45 to 40.48 cents.

Enough said. Happy New Year.

December 1982 | Illinois Issues | 5