By CHENG H. CHIANG and RICHARD KOLHAUSER

Who are we? Illinois' changing population

In several ways, Illinoisans are not the same as they used to be. Initial analysis of 1980 census data for the state shows that its citizens are less young, less white and less likely to be married than at any time in the past. The figures also indicate that Illinoisans are leaving the state at a rate 10 times greater than in the previous decade. It is too soon to say with any precision why these changes have occurred, but such questions will undoubtedly be pondered mightily by state policymakers in the 80s

THROUGHOUT Illinois and the U.S. as a whole, far-reaching demographic changes are underway. The breadth and scope of those changes are now becoming clear as the newest 1980 census data come in. Perhaps the most striking conclusion from the census data is that Illinois and the nation are becoming truly multiracial. In Illinois, for instance, the ratio of nonwhite to white population has shifted from one in 13 in 1950 to about one in five in 1980. If the trend continues, by the year 2000, one in three persons will be nonwhite. Pronounced changes are also apparent in how people are living together — more people are living alone; families are smaller; more men and women without partners are heading households; and in Illinois husband-wife families have declined. And the labor force in both Illinois and the U.S. has swelled as members of the baby boom generation reach the age when they want their first job. Finally, Illinois is growing more slowly than the rest of the nation, a fact that is but the first and most obvious sign of the extensive out-migration that has occurred in the state.

The newest 1980 census data help draw a new picture of Illinois. Although many of Illinois' population trends are similar to those of the U.S., not all changes are parallel.

How many of us are there?

Illinois is the fifth most populous state in the nation with 11.4 million persons counted in 1980. Its growth rate in the 1970s was only 2.8 percent, much slower than in the 1960s and far below the 11.4 percent increase in the U.S. population. In each of the previous three decades, Illinois' population grew by at least one million persons, compared to only 300,000 during the 1970s (table 1). (It should be noted that the U.S. Bureau of the Census estimated that about 2.7 percent of Illinois' population or over 300,000 persons were not counted in 1970. The corresponding error in the 1980 census is believed to be much smaller, perhaps only one-half of 1 percent. If the population counts in 1970 and 1980 were

Table 1 Illinois' population, 1950-1980
	1950	1960	1970	1980
Population size (in millions)	8.7	10.1	11.1	11.4
Percent increase	10.3	16.1	10.2	2.8
Percent of U.S. Population	5.8	5.6	5.5	5.0

adjusted for the underreporting, Illinois' population would appear not to have increased at all.) Although Illinois has always lagged somewhat behind the national rate of population increase, the gap has widened. In the 1970s, the U.S. population grew four times faster than Illinois'; if Illinois' population had kept pace with the national rate, there would be nearly one million more people in the state today.

The explanation of why Illinois' population is growing slowly leads to an understanding of other major changes.

Population change from one period to the next is related to three factors which together account for population change— births, deaths and migration. For example, to reach the 11.4 million population count in 1980, you start with the 11.1 million people in 1970, add 1.8 million births, less 1.1 million deaths, less 420,000 net out-migrants (more persons are leaving the state than arriving). Since the birth and death rates in Illinois are in line with national rates, migration is the key to understanding Illinois' slow population growth in the 1970s.

It was during the 1960s that people first began to move from Illinois in greater numbers than those moving into the state. The Bureau of Census estimates that from 1960 to 1970 Illinois experienced a net out-migration of about 43,000 people. The trend accelarated tenfold in the 1970s when it is estimated that about 420,000 more people left the state than moved in. (Net out-migration might be as high as 700,000 if the 1970 census were adjusted for the estimated undercount.) The national picture, in contrast, shows more people coming into the United States than leaving in the 1970s; because of this net in-migration alone, the U.S. population increased about 2 percent. In short, net out-migration from Illinois is the major reason Illinois failed to keep pace with the nation's population increase during the 1970s.

With available information, it is not yet possible to specify the ages of in-migrants and out-migrants. Until additional census data become available next year, only the age, sex and race of those in the net number of out-migrants can be estimated. By age, the largest net exodus was the 201,000 people of work force age, 20-64 years old; the smallest consisted of young persons, up to age 19, about 94,000 people. Those aged 65 and older numbered 125,000.

By sex, net out-migration during the 1970s was significantly higher for women (235,000) than for men (185,000). Women outnumber men in the state but not in sufficient numbers to explain this difference. One possible explanation to be tested when more data are available is that while men and women left Illinois in roughly equal numbers, more men than women moved into the state.

Estimates for net out-migration by race during the 1970s show a tendency for the white population to leave the state and the nonwhite population to move into the state. Estimates of net out-migration for the white population range from roughly 700,000 to 900,000 persons, or up to 10 percent of the

6 | December 1982 | Illinois Issues

white population in 1970; this white out-migration was great enough to cause an overall decline in the white population. In contrast, estimates for the nonwhite population show net in-migration of between 160,000 to 400,000 persons. (The higher estimate is based on the

Table 2 Comparison population growth rates,* whites and nonwhites (% change over previous decade)
	1950	1960	1970	1980
White	7	12	7	-3
Nonwhite	70	61	41	33
*Comparison of the 1970 and 1980 census shows the change in the white population at -4 percent and the nonwhite at 45 percent. The data in table 2 have been adjusted for race classification differences between the censuses. The term white includes some persons of Spanish origin.

actual 1970 and 1980 census data. The lower estimate reflects both the 1970 census adjustments for undercount and the 1980 definition for racial classification.)

How is Illinois' racial makeup changing?

Since 1950, the growth rate for the nonwhite population has far exceeded that for the white population, though both rates are declining (see table 2). In 1950, the nonwhite population of Illinois was 7.6 percent of the overall population, about the same as the nation. The 1980 census reports that 19 percent of the Illinois population is nonwhite, compared to 17 percent for the nation.

The 1980 census shows that the state's white population declined by almost 3 percent from the 1970 census, while the nonwhite population increased by 33 percent. For the United States, the corresponding population growth rates are a 7 percent increase for whites and a 35 percent increase for nonwhites. The difference between Illinois and the U.S. is primarily a result of migration.

In Illinois, the comparatively rapid growth of the nonwhite population in the 1970s was the net result of a 17 percent increase in the black population (non-Spanish origin), a 74 percent increase in persons of Spanish origins and a 129 percent increase in Asians, Indians and others. Except for the black population, the large increases were due largely to in-migration. The present racial composition of the state is shown in table 3.

If the rapid transformation of the racial composition of the state (and the nation) continues at the same rate during the next two decades, as many as one in three persons will be nonwhite by the year 2000.

What are the age trends in Illinois?

The age composition of a population determines the number of workers, the number of children, the number of elderly and other groups. Rapid shifts in the number of persons in different age categories can empty or fill schools and nursing homes, drive up unemployment rates or create labor shortages, open new industries or close them down. In both Illinois and the United States, such shifts are well underway. There are proportionately fewer young people, more young adults and more elderly. The data for Illinois is shown in table 4.

Overall, this age shift represents one of the most significant demographic changes in the nation's history — a phenomenon usually referred to as the "baby boom," a period from about 1947 to 1964 when families were unusually large. Almost one in three Americans counted in 1980 is a member of the baby boom generation.

During the 1970s, the baby boom generation grew up: The youngest member is already 18 years old and the oldest is 35. Accompanying this "growing up" in the 1970s was a sharp drop in elementary school enrollments, an expansion of higher education enrollments and sharp increases in the size of the work force. The effects of this baby boom generation retiring from the work force will be felt just after the turn of the century. (For an assessment of the impact of the baby boom generation upon state government, see Cheng H. Chiang and Richard Kolhauser, "The 'Baby Boom' Generation," Illinois Business Review, July 1981.) In Illinois this group now numbers 3.5 million people between the ages of 18 and 35; this is over one million more than in both the 1950s and 1960s.

Since 1964, both Illinois and the nation have shown a decline in births, but Illinois now shows a greater decline in the number of young persons up to age 17. From 1970 to 1980, the number of persons in this age group declined by almost 16 percent, while the decline for the U.S. was only 9 percent. Since the Illinois and U.S. fertility rates are essentially the same and the proportion of women of child-bearing age is the same, the reason for the difference must be related to out-migration.

How many children?

The baby boom generation coming of age sharply increased the number of women in Illinois who can have children — by 700,000 from 1970 to 1980 — and yet there were far fewer births in the 1970s than in the two previous decades.

One reason for fewer births may be that men and women have been deciding to have fewer children within marriage and to delay marriage itself. Whatever the reasons, there is a decline in the fertility rate (the number of children born per 1,000 women between the ages of 15 and 44). Since 1960 the fertility rate has dropped 40 percent, from 119 to only 71. The drop in the fertility rate more than offset the increase

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in women of child-bearing age and resulted in fewer births. These trends hold true for the United States as a whole. In the 1980s, however, there will still be a very large number of women capable of having children so that even small changes in the fertility rate could produce a "baby boomlet."

How has Illinois' work force changed?

The greatest effect on the work force of the state and nation in the 1970s was the entry of the baby boom generation. Although the state's population increased by 2.8 percent in the 1970s, its work force (age 16 and over) increased 18 percent. This meant 800,000 more jobs were needed in Illinois in the 1970s, the largest number of new jobs ever required in the state in a 10-year period. The combination of a record number of job seekers during a period of economic weakness was too much for the economy to handle, and unemployment jumped.

For Illinois the job shortage was somewhat more acute because 62.5 percent of persons over age 16 in the state were in the labor force; the corresponding figure for the U.S. was 61 percent. While the labor participation rates appear rather alike, the 1.5 percent differential meant an additional 130,000 jobs were required in Illinois.

The impact was especially noticeable for young, inexperienced job seekers whose unemployment rates in Illinois were almost three times higher than those for older workers. For example, in 1980, the average unemployment rate for workers under age 20 was 19 percent while that for workers over age 20 years was 7 percent. The rate of growth for the work force should drop later in the decade after all the baby boomers have entered it. In Illinois, the workforce in the 1980s may increase by perhaps as few as 300,000. This alone may help bring down the unemployment rate in Illinois.

Another trend of the 1970s which increased the size of the labor force in Illinois and the nation was the entry of women into the workplace. From 1970 to 1980, the number of women in the Illinois labor force jumped 31 percent, from 1.8 million to 2.3 million. The number of male workers increased only 11 percent (from 2.8 million to 3.1 million) during this time. In 1980, 43 percent of both the state's and the nation's labor force consisted of women. And in 1980, both the husband and the wife worked in about 50 percent of marriages.

Whom do we live with?

Some striking changes occurred during the 1970s in how people decided to live together. For example, husband-wife families are still the dominant household form in Illinois (about 60 percent of the state's 4.1 million households), but there were fewer such families in 1980 compared to 1970. This is quite remarkable because the total number of households in the state increased by 16 percent (see table 5).

While the number of husband-wife families declined in Illinois by over 2 percent from 1970 to 1980, such families increased in the U.S. as a whole by 8 percent. The most likely explanation is that the out-migration from Illinois consisted largely of husband-wife families or persons very likely to form such families.

In Illinois and elsewhere in the nation

Table 5 Illinois household types in 1980 (thousands)
Type of household	Number of household	% of households	% Change 1970-1980
Family:
Husband-wife	2,350	58	-2
Female-headed	470	12	58
Male-headed	120	3	40
Total family	2,940	73	6
Nonfamily:
Living alone	970	24	N/A
Two or more unrelated	140	3	N/A
Total nonfamily	1,110	27	55
Total households	4,050	100	16

many people decided to live alone during the 1970s. As a result, almost one in four households in Illinois consists of a single person; they tend to be in the baby boom generation, or over age 65. The migration into Illinois also helped increase the number of single-person households. Typically, a person moving to Illinois was male and unaccompanied by his family.

There was also an exceptionally large increase (58 percent) in the number of Illinois families headed by females. The underlying reasons for this trend are not especially obvious. Among nonwhite female-headed households, the increase was 120 percent; the increase in households headed by white females was 31 percent. By 1981, almost 40 percent of all nonwhite families in Illinois were headed by women. Illinois was not unusual in these trends since the U.S. growth for households headed by females was 51 percent for nonwhites and 34 percent for whites. A complex blend of factors underlie these changes in the way people live in Illinois; the more detailed census data available later may help better explain the changes.

Conclusion

The population shifts now underway in Illinois and the nation will, in a comparatively short period of time, redefine who we are and how we live, The economic and social implications of increasing immigration, an aging population, a changing racial makeup, a slower growing labor force, and changing household composition are enormous.

Take, for example, just one of the Illinois population trends uncovered here, the loss of population through out-migration. Why are more people leaving Illinois — climate, open space, jobs? What occupations are leaving? Will out-migration continue, perhaps increase? Why are the people leaving likely to be, as it appears, white, husband-wife families and of higher income? What has been the impact of this migration on the state's economic growth? Can and should state economic development policies be adopted to influence this migration?

These questions suggest the economic implications of out-migration; should it continue, out-migration will significantly influence the state's economic future. Each of the other population changes identified here raises equally significant questions about the state's economy and how well its people will live. It will take another article to identify and measure just some of the economic implications of Illinois' changing population.

Richard Kolhauser is deputy director of the Illinois Bureau of the Budget and has worked in the area of state finance since 1970. He has written several articles on state finance and demographics. Cheng H. Chiang received his Ph.D. in sociology from the University of Chicago and is currently employed as a demographer by the Illinois Bureau of the Budget.

8 | December 1982 | Illinois Issues