By ROBERT KIECKHEFER

Politics

IT LOOKS LIKE Sen. Charles H. Percy against the world in next year's elections.

With nine months to go before the primary, the field of potential challengers in both parties is large and formidable. It also ranges the political spectrum. And developments on the national front, especially economic developments, may have a major impact on the outcome.

The candidates — announced and potential — include Ottawa Republican, U.S. Rep. Tom Corcoran, and these Democrats: state Senate President Philip J. Rock of Oak Park; U.S. Rep. Paul Simon of Carbondale, a former lieutenant governor; state Comptroller Roland W. Burris, the first black man elected to statewide office; and attorney Alex Seith, who turned in a respectable showing against Percy in 1978.

Also mentioned as potential candidates but less likely to run are former Lake County Clerk Grace Mary Stern, who was Adlai E. Stevenson's running mate last fall; former Gov. Daniel Walker, now a fast-change motor oil magnate in the Chicago suburbs; and Cook County Assessor Tom Hynes, former state Senate president.

The campaign actually has been going on for months, albeit quietly. It surfaced publicly only at the time of a dinner in Percy's honor, featuring President Reagan as the main speaker. Corcoran let it be known at the White House that since he was thinking of challenging Percy, Reagan might want to drop in at his own hastily organized testimonial.

Reagan snubbed Corcoran, but the congressman's ploy attracted a lot of attention in conservative circles, attention that might translate into campaign contributions from Republicans who long have thought Percy too liberal. The president also took a little heat from those same conservatives siding with Percy in a clear-cut confrontation. Reagan almost certainly would be a major issue in any all-out battle between Percy and Corcoran. If the economy and Reagan's image continue to improve, the conservative wing of the GOP could be buoyed enough to give Corcoran a lift. If things don't get better, Percy is in a better position to disassociate himself from Reagan and Reaganomics.

The Chicago suburbs will be a major battleground in both the GOP primary and the general election, and Corcoran notes turnout in that area has been slipping. As a result, he argues, the party must put up its best candidate to stimulate suburban turnout in the November general election.

Things could be even more interesting on the Democratic ticket, simply because of the diverse field.

Simon has been under increasing pressure to run and reportedly has been offered substantial campaign contributions. Although he has resisted similar pressure in the past, associates say this year's urgings are stronger, and he is paying more attention to them.

Seith has been running quietly virtually since his 1978 loss to Percy. An attorney with international experience, Seith has kept in touch through personal appearances and a political newsletter bearing his name.

Rock is something of a hybrid city dweller-suburbanite, a combination, that might prove useful in next year's race. Although he lives in Oak Park, he has worked closely with the Chicago Democratic organization and would be an appealing candidate for what's left of that machine.

Burris' decision, however, might be the most important of the year politically. Burris unquestionably would benefit from the vastly increased black voter registration of the past year. If he could sweep the Chicago black community while two or more other candidates split the remaining suburban and downstate vote, he could duplicate Harold Washington's victory in the February mayoral primary.

Stern, while ambitious for higher office and a fine campaigner, probably does not have enough statewide support to field a credible campaign. Hynes would be an alternative to Rock, but it's unlikely both will run. Walker, now 60, exhibited little of his old campaign flair when he flirted with the idea of running for governor in the 1982 primary.

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Which candidate would have the best chance against Percy? Seith, although polls showed him in a close race in 1978, lost to Percy by 250,524 votes. Percy, obviously spooked by the polls, admitted he hadn't been paying enough attention to his home state and vowed he had "learned my lesson." Perhaps he did learn a lesson, but Percy, boosted to the chairmanship of the Foreign Relations Committee, hasn't been much more visible in his home state in the past four years than in the previous 12. Where Seith could pick up 250,000 votes in a race against Percy, however, is a question yet to be answered. He might fare better against Corcoran simply because Corcoran would have to start from scratch in building statewide name recognition.

In a general election contest, Burris would have to couple downstate support with rock-solid support in the Chicago black community to have a chance against Percy. He is a native of Carbondale and could use that fact as the basis of a downstate campaign effort. His election and Washington's have done much to minimize racism in Illinois politics, but it certainly would remain more of a factor in a senatorial race than in the comptroller's campaign.

Simon, who lost to Walker in the 1972 gubernatorial primary, likely would stand the best chance of neutralizing Percy's appeal downstate. His problems would be making inroads in the suburbs and getting a good turnout in Chicago's Democratic wards. One of the drawbacks of Illinois' early primary is that candidates have to make up their minds whether to run 11 months before the general election. Conditions can change so radically in that time period that predictions become almost meaningless. For a Simon or a Corcoran, it's like shooting craps; they'd have to give up a safe job to undertake such a quest. Neither Rock nor Burris is faced with such a risk; their current terms are up in 1986. □

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