An agenda for the GOP

OVER the course of the past 30 years the Republican party in Illinois has been transformed from majority to minority status. A measure of this assertion may be seen in election results for little-known University of Illinois trustee candidates, where party affiliation is about the only cue available to the electorate. Support for Republican trustee candidates, who run statewide, has declined rather steadily: from 52.8 percent of the two-party vote in 1948 to a low of 46.4 percent in 1978 (based on a moving average technique that produces a trend line).

Why? First, to put it baldly, there is a significantly smaller proportion of whites in the state than there once was. This is the group from which most Republican votes come. As reported in Illinois Issues (December 1982), estimates of net out-migration by Illinois whites during the 1970s range from 700,000 to 900,000. In the same period the black population increased by 17.5 percent and today accounts for 1.67 million of our 11.4 million residents; Hispanic numbers are up sharply as well. The ratio of nonwhite to white population has shifted from one in thirteen in 1950 to one in five in 1980. If the trend continues, one in three residents will be nonwhite by the year 2000. Traditionally, these groups have voted overwhelmingly Democratic in national and state elections. A second, less important, factor is that throughout this 30-year period the official Republican party has basically been impotent. Several factors account for this. In contrast to the Democrats, who have been able to control Chicago's City Hall continuously since the Depression, Republicans have alternated possession of the governor's office — the other significant power base — with the Democrats. And when in control, Republican governors have built personal — rather than Republican — organizations that wither when they leave office.

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Governors William G. Stratton (1953-1961), Richard B. Ogilvie (1969-1973) and James R. Thompson (1977-present) have given lip service to the official party but have seen no reason to develop it. This is somewhat understandable, since a governor, to be effective, needs all the resources he can muster. Why share authority over patronage and campaign funds with an official party that has a broader range of interests than the governorship? For example, at one point in Stratton's tenure, 82 of 102 GOP county chairmen and 23 of 25 state central committeemen were on his payroll. They were put there by Stratton, not by the official party they represented; they did the governor's bidding, not the party's.

And when there is no Republican governor, the Illinois Republican party is unable to fill the void. The key elements of the party organization are the 102 county central committees and the state central committee. The county units work at the precinct level to influence voter turnout and outcomes, while the state committee has developed an effective direct mail fundraising apparatus. Unfortunately, there is nothing that links the county and state units. They are truly independent of one another. As a result, party efforts lack unity, and impact is diffused.

In addition, both major political parties have fallen out of favor with much of the public. Ticket-splitting has become the rage. For example, as many as four of every five voters split their tickets in recent elections in Macon and Champaign counties in central Illinois. This has further weakened the influence of the divided Illinois GOP party organization.

Can anything be done about the decline of the Illinois Republican party? This question must be addressed on two dimensions: organizational effectiveness and attractiveness of the party program.

The party organization can be strengthened by three actions; each would require change in state statutes. First, unify the party organization. This could be accomplished by empowering the county chairmen (and the ward and township committeemen in Cook County) to elect the state central committeeman in each congressional district. This would link the county and state committees, and provide greater unity over time. Second, increase party resources. This would occur indirectly if severe limitations were placed on contributions that individuals, corporations and political action committees could make to individual candidates. This is the case at present for federal candidates. Third, increase the influence of party organization in elections by reverting to a "closed" primary system wherein only registered Republicans or Democrats, respectively, could take part. This is the approach in many states.

It is extremely difficult for a state party to develop a clear, attractive program. In the normal course of events, party ideology and programs are developed over time by national leaders. Yet President Reagan, for all his personal popularity, is not developing a clear, attractive set of programs that will ultimately benefit the Republican party. Substantial segments among women, young voters, blacks and Hispanics view the Republican party as insensitive, out of touch.

The Illinois Republican party has not had its own programs. Its platforms have been innocuous, unread, unheeded. Nevertheless, because the Illinois GOP is clearly No. 2, it is going to have to try harder, it is going to have to be different.

The Illinois GOP should definitely not try to be all things to all groups. Instead the party should focus its energies and limited resources on a single problem that is of central concern to all. In this way, should the approach be sensible and caring, the effort would communicate the perception that the party also reflects these qualities generally.

I recommend health care as a problem area that cries for attention. Costs have skyrocketed, and will continue to do so, as the fruits of our technology extend our life spans. All are affected; the poor and the comfortable alike are deeply anxious about their abilities to pay for catastrophic and long-term illnesses. It is a problem shared by the private and public sectors; both must participate in developing creative, courageous policies.

The health care problems can't be solved by the Illinois Republican party alone. Nevertheless, through intensive focus, options development and leadership in health policy innovation, the state party could make a significant contribution to the commonweal. Attendantly it could establish itself as a responsible, caring participant in the policy process, a party worthy of support from all segments of society.

Should the Illinois Republican party fail to make concerted efforts somewhat along the lines suggested here, it will serve in the future only as a medium for individuals who want to run for office on their own personal agendas.

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