Wooing the collegiate vote

By CHARLES J. ABBOTT

OPTIMISM is a salient part of Republicanism these days. Along with breakfast at the 1984 presidential convention, GOP delegates got doses of charts in which the GOP numbers climbed relentlessly upwards to surpass the Democrats. It was the same enthusiasm portrayed in the advertisement for President Reagan that opened with the line, "It's morning again in America."

The presidential election was going to demonstrate, Republicans said, political realignment, an end to 50 years of dominance by Democrats. To some extent, they were right. Republicans control the terms of debate on many issues today; consider how they turned the $2 trillion national debt into a plan to balance the budget. Democrats in Congress yelped last year about Reagan's moves on South Africa, military procurement and international trade, but they could not force anything tougher. Remember, too, Democrats spent 1985 in soul-searching.

But, Reagan had a lonely landslide for reelection. Republicans hold a slim majority in the Senate, and they gained only 14 seats in the House, where they are a distinct minority. So, clues still are sought about realignment, and the college student vote is one of the areas of dispute. College students voted 3-to-2 for Reagan, about the same split as the rest of the population. Normally, they favor Democrats. "The young are more interested in the future than the past," two White House staff members wrote in the magazine Insight. They contend Democrats have lost their appeal, perhaps for good.

College students account for only a quarter of the 18-24 age group, but their voting patterns are watched closely. They are at the age when preferences are set; people tend to stick with the first political party they voted for, politicians say. Plus, college students are likely to become the successful people who are active in politics. "If we lose them, we won't have candidates to field or community support for them," said U.S. Rep. Richard Durbin (D-20, Springfield). Durbin was the author of the "forums for the future" that House Democrats held last fall to find out what college students are thinking. Plans called for a second round this month.

The project attracted some derision. Bright young Democrats, as defined in Congress, tend to be age 40 or so — twice the age of most college students.

The forums were useful, Durbin said, and even encouraging. Democrats face problems in communicating their ideas, but they hold the "right" positions, he said in an interview, on issues that matter to students: the environment, opportunity for women, South Africa. "We have to change the historical context. The students have not been alienated from the concept," Durbin said.

By context, Durbin means this: Democrats frame their discussions around President Kennedy and the Vietnam War. To many college students, Vietnam is just a piece of history. News accounts of the forums indicate students were captivated when congressmen described the Kennedy vigor that drew them into politics, but attention faded when the talk turned to what Democrats had done in the past 20 years. "The common refrain was 'What are you doing now, what are you doing tomorrow?' " Durbin said.

In Durbin's view, there is no shift toward conservatism, but there may be clustering in the middle of the road. Some statistics from the 1984 election agree with that. The Congressional Quarterly reported last November that colleges with a history of liberalism stuck with Democratic nominee Walter Mondale. There was ticket splitting: Two University of Iowa precincts went for Reagan and Democrat Tom Harkin for Senate. In an interview, U.S. Rep. Terry Bruce (D-19, Olney) said he was surprised to realize Mondale won the student precincts at the University of Illinois, 52 percent to 48, while losing the district by 73,000 votes.

The magazine Public Opinion last summer published an article discussing a survey of college freshmen by the Cooperative Institutional Research Program at UCLA. It showed a drop in support for abortion, legalization of marijuana and preferential admissions policies for disadvantaged students. But the freshmen held liberal views on consumer protection, pollution controls, energy conservation, school busing and equal pay for women. It suggested students (and the rest of the country) are winnowing the ideas of the 1970s into what will work in the 1980s.

There are arguments for a conservative shift. Without a booming economy, students devote attention to their own welfare and less to others. Many students come from conservative households and have not been challenged in their beliefs. During their formative years, Democrats were associated with inflation, Iran and ineffectiveness. In contrast, Republicanism declares things will get better.

Durbin and Bruce do not concede the college vote. Bruce said students base their votes on the candidate, not labels. Democrats need to articulate their philosophy, he said. Durbin said college students are up for grabs and he expects a major effort by Democrats to get their votes, just as Republicans will try to hold on to the advantage they won in 1984.

As the commercial for President Reagan said: If you think there's a bear in the woods, doesn't it make sense to be as strong as the bear?

February 1986/Illinois Issues 51