Threshold for
winning
the mayor's race

On the last Tuesday in February, Chicago voters will again cast their votes in primary elections. On the first Tuesday in April the process will be complete, and the winners and losers will surely begin another four-year process of developing a winning strategy. The names on the ballot remained a mystery until the day the primary ballots had to be printed. It was a cat-and-mouse game of who would run under which party label and in which election with key players waiting for each other to make the first move.

The deliberations of Mayor Harold Washington's Democratic opponents to enter the "right" election were to ensure a one-on-one contest because otherwise they believed they could not win.

The validity of this strategy is clear based on our analysis of returns in Chicago precincts in 1983 (see table 1). While exit polls then confirmed these vote distributions, the data should be considered quasi-official since they are based on actual returns in 1,300 precincts, returns for half of the city for precincts characterized using Census descriptions.

The 47 percent/47 percent split between Jane Byrne and Richard M. Daley of non-black voters coupled with Washington's 81 percent of black voters proved to be Washington's winning combination in the 1983 Democratic primary.

In the 1983 April general election, based on reports to us from election judges in the same precincts on election night, Washington's support among black voters and other voters improved (see table 2). This was the one-on-one contest which his Democratic opponents want now.

At the time of the primary in February 1983, Washington's support in the black community was not fully developed; two months later, he got 97 percent of their votes.

This year Washington's margin among black voters will surely be above 90 percent according to available poll data. The current Chicago Tribune Poll shows Byrne, his strongest rival, with only 5 percent of black voters, well under her 14 percent in the 1983 primary.

The Washington win in 1983 was also made possible because of voter registration, not just voter preference. This was due to a drive to register black voters which began in mid-1982. Its first result was a near win by Adlai E. Stevenson III in November ballots as if it were a contest for president.

February 1987/Illinois Issues/38

In anticipation of the coming Chicago contents, but in the absence of knowing the general election mayoral contestants, this is a good time to examine information availiable to us now: the trend in voter registration and turnout in black and other wards. What models are operative for the February and April elections? Although voter registration was to continue until January 27, where does Chicago's black voter registration stand as of the November 1986 Illinois general election in relation to total Chicago registration? What has the trend been since 1983? This analysis is based on the 19 predominately black wards of the city's total 50 wards (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 15, 16, 17, 20, 21, 24, 27, 28, 29, 34 and 37); 13 were 90-plus percent black, according to the 1980 Census, and many of the rest were redrawn to improve black voter representation.

Voter registration in these 19 black wards peaked at 637,177 in the April 1983 general election contest between Washington and Republican candidate Bernard Epton. But the four-year trend is down 8.1 percent to 563,357. (Table 3 presents voter registration in the 19 wards during key election periods along with the precentage increase since November 1982 — the period of the black voter registration drive.)

1986 was an off-year election. But so was November 1982. November 1986 registration in the black wards was 49,500 under November 1982, and that 1982 number was the magnitude of registration that persuaded Harold Washington to enter the 1983 — primary in the first place!

This drop could be a cause for alarm in the Washington camp were it not for the trend in the rest of the city. The number of voters in the rest of Chicago is also down since the 1982-83 period. In fact, no section of the city can match its April 1983 voter registration level.

Registration steadily declined in most areas since April 1983 — even during the 1984 presidential general election (see table 4). There was one exception: Lakefront wards increased during the 1984 presidential election. (The one place in Chicago where voters place more emphasis on selecting a president than a mayor).

The meaning of this lack of voter interest is not clear. Some is attributable to events which led to a situation of no candidate for governor on the Democratic ticket last November. And, with the negative ratings of higher profile mayoral candidates, there may also have been less enthusiastic anticipation for the upcoming city elections.

How has the voter mix changed with all these declines? Percentage of total Chicago registration in the same 19 wards analyzed earlier is shown in table 5. Even with sharp declines in voter registration, these wards now have a slightly larger share of the city's voters than they did at the time of the 1983 February primary. (Assuming some black voters live in other parts of the city, we place the actual percentage of blacks at above 41 percent.) Increases in registration were possible by January 27, but it will be difficult to significantly alter this mix.

As for turnout (ballots cast/registered voters), April 1983 was recordsetting. General election turnout in these 19 wards was 81.5 percent — nearly equal to the historic city wide level of 82.1 percent. In all other elections during this period (including February 1983) voter turnout in the 19 black wards lagged citywide turnout by several percentage points. (See table 6.)

Turnout in black wards has always lagged other city wards. The unusual year was 1983. The turnout difference has historically been more like last November, but obviously black voters have more at stake in the 1987 city elections than they did in the state's November election.

What will the formula for the winner of a one-on-one contest be in 1987?

Assume that voter registration will top out at 1,480,000, a net gain of 40,000 over November 1986. The exact number isn't important. The mix is important, and the mix should be 41 percent black or 606,800 (after allowing for voters living outside the 19 wards) plus 873,200 other voters.

Assuming as much as a negative four-point difference in turnout in the black community — say, 74 percent vs. 78 percent — a total of 1,130,000 voters will vote. That's 449,000 blacks and 681,000 others.

February 1987/Illinois Issues/39

In order to exceed 50 percent of the total city or 565,000 votes, he will only need 143,000 more votes or 21 percent from the rest of the city

All signs point to the fact that Washington will do much better than 90 percent among his own constituents. Let's say he gets 94 percent; that would be 422,060 votes so far. In order to exceed 50 percent of the total city or 565,000 votes, he will only need 143,000 more votes or 21 percent from the rest of the city.

So even after allowing for some black voters not voting and some voting for someone else, Washington's threshold for victory in a one-on-one contest could now be as little as two points more than he got among nonblacks in his 1983 race against Epton. Any three-way race will mean he won't have to equal his 1983 performance.

So far we have ignored the Republican mayoral primary. So has just about everyone else over the past 20 years snce it has only attracted between 0.9 percent and 2.7 percent of th city's voters.

In the absence of a significant contest, 1987 will have a Republican mayoral primary turnout at the low end of this range. This also means there is no reason for Democratic voters to cross over to the Republican primary. Without a Republican primary contest, the threshold levels for winning the Democratic primary are the same as for the general election.

Nick Panagakis is president of Market Shares Corporation, a marketing and public opinion research firm in Mount Prospect. Panagakis is best known for preelection and exit polls conducted for the news media in Chicago, St. Louis and Milwaukee. His Chicago clients include WBBM-TV (1974-1985) and the Chicago Tribune as of this year.

40/February 1987/Illinois Issues