Abortion: an issue feared by politicians

It appears that many politicians in Washington have gotten their wish regarding the abortion issue. For years many members of Congress wanted to "remand" the issue to their brethren at the state level, thereby taking the heat off themselves.

Richard Day Research has been asking questions about abortion in Illinois and across the nation for over 10 years. We have found attitudes to be quite stable on this issue over time. Generally, between 20-25 percent of the voters choose the option that abortion should be "legal under any circumstances," about 55 percent prefer the middle position of "legal under certain

Voters expect their candidates to always take their side on an issue that is important to them, and voters never forget when a candidate does not

circumstances," and 15-25 percent say it should be "illegal under all circumstances."

The best predictor of a person's attitude on this issue is socioeconomic status: the higher the education and income the more likely to choose the "legal under all circumstances" option. Of course, age and race are also highly related to socioeconomic status; that is, older voters tend to be less educated and affluent than younger voters, and blacks tend to be less affluent than whites, so they take the predictable position.

There are ironies. The leadership on both sides of this issue are not like their base of followers. The leaders of the pro-life movement tend to be upper middle class, educated and generally young to middle age. In short, the leaders of the right-to-life movement look like the supporters of the pro-choice movement. The base of the pro-life movement, that is, elderly and downscale, tend to be much more concerned about issues that affect their own survival, such as jobs, social security and crime.

The pro-choice groups are generally "led" by the more strident feminists, who represent a very small contingent of the group that supports their position. A likely advocate of the pro-choice side is a 40-year-old University of Illinois graduate who lives in Wilmette and has two children.

Now that this issue has moved from the courts to the states, it has to be dealt with directly by state legislators.

What is it that makes them cower? These politicians fear the single-issue voter: someone who cares so much about one issue that he or she will vote for or against a candidate solely because of the candidate's position on this one issue. Voters expect their candidates to always take their side on an issue that is important to them, and voters never forget when a candidate does not.

Our research has included this question on single issues for a number of years, and depending on the year, the most dominant single issue is jobs or crime. On the issue of abortion, we find a small but equal number of voters (about 1-2 percent for each side of the issue) who say that they will vote against a candidate if he or she doesn't support the voter's position.

In addition, politicians cower before the abortion single issue because they do not want to be confronted by an angry mob of voters who are either pro-choice or pro-life. (My rule of thumb, however, is that the louder a group is, the less real influence they have.) Since 1985 we have been advising clients to switch the debate slightly on abortion. Instead of ducking and obfuscating the issue, I recommend finding out the voters' answers to this question: "Who do you want to decide whether or not a woman has an abortion? The woman and her doctor, or politicians in Washington or Springfield." To that question, the response is very consistent: 75 percent say "the woman and her doctor," and 25 percent say "the politicians in Washington or Springfield."

As this issue goes through the state legislatures, it will be one of many that politicians will have to face. They will have a difficult job dealing with both sides of every issue: contending with the screamers, the PACs, the need to communicate, reach out, balance competing interests and get reelected. It boils down to an ability to deal with relentless pressure, and the more competitive the seat or the higher the office, the greater the pressure.□

Richard Day has his own survey research firm, Richard Day Research, in Evanston. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

August & September 1989 | Illinois Issues | 65