Population Changes in Illinois Cities

By NORMAN WALZER and FIONA DAVIDSON*

During the 1980s, the population in the Midwest increased very slightly (1.36 percent increase), much slower than the national average. Within the region two states experienced population declines (Iowa and North Dakota) and of the remaining states, only Minnesota had a population increase greater than the national average. Of the ten states with population increases, Illinois had the smallest, with an almost stable population between 1980 and 1990 (a .04 percent increase).

Even within Illinois, cities and counties differ substantially in population changes and metropolitan areas, on average, fared better than rural areas. On the average, metropolitan Illinois¹ increased 1.18 percent in the 1980s compared with a 5.08 percent decline in non-metropolitan areas. In 1970, rural areas in Illinois contained 18.04 percent of the state population. By 1990, that percentage decreased to 17.51 percent. Thus metro areas have gained during the past two decades relative to rural areas.

Not all metropolitan areas experienced population gains, however, and some of the largest Illinois cities reported substantial declines. Population changes, of course, are especially important because motor fuel taxes and income taxes are shared with cities based on population. This article examines population trends in Illinois cities during the 1980s. The amount of information released by the Census of Population is limited at this time and more detailed comparisons of income and economic characteristics must wait until additional data have been released.

Size Distribution of Cities

One of the largest changes in the distribution of municipal populations is the declining proportion represented by the City of Chicago (Table 1). In 1970, Chicago contained 36.2 percent of the municipal population in Illinois but by 1990, the proportion had decreased to 28.6 percent. Outmigration to the suburbs is an obvious explanation.

A second interesting change is that cities of 25,000 and larger represented 65.3 percent of the total municipal population in 1970 compared with 61.7 percent in 1990. Given the decline in relative population ac-

Table 1. Size Distribution of Illinois Cities, 1970-90
Size Category	No. of Cities 1970	*Cum. Pct.	No. of Cities 1990	Cum. Pct.
over 200,000	1	36.2	1	28.6
100,000 -199,999	2	39.2	3	52.2
50,000 - 99,999	17	51.5	18	44.7
25,000 - 49,999	38	65.3	48	61.7
10,000 - 24,999	93	80.9	110	79.9
5,000 - 9,999	92	88.0	110	88.1
2,500 - 4,999	127	92.9	147	93.5
1,000 - 2,499	239	96.9	236	97.2
under 1,000	658	100.0	635	100.0
Total	1,267		1,279
Pct. with municipal government	83.7		83.8
*base is population residing in municipalities Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Population 1970 and 1990.

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Table 2. Population change by city size, 1970-90
City size	No. of Cities			Cities with pop decl. 70-80	Cities with pop decl. 80-90	Decr. 70-80 but incr. 80-90
	1970	1980	1990
					(percent)
less than 500	410	374	397	33.7	80.2	6.4
500 - 999	258	250	237	21.7	76.0	6.0
1,000 - 2,499	236	251	228	20.8	72.5	4.0
2,500 - 9,999	218	223	236	25.2	55.2	6.7
10,000 -19,999	77	94	87	45.5	47.9	4.3
20,000 - 49,999	57	65	70	56.1	56.9	1.5
more than 49,999	21	20	22	61.9	55.0	5.0
Source: 1990 Census of Population

counted for by Chicago, this comparison shows that mid-size cities (between 25,000 and 199,999) increased substantially in relative importance. In fact, very little difference is found in the proportion represented by cities of 10,000 and larger in 1970 and 1990. Cities outside of Chicago increased sufficiently to offset the decline in Chicago.

A third finding is that cities smaller than 1,000 represent a smaller proportion of the municipal population than 20 years earlier. In 1970, these communities represented 3.1 percent of the municipal population compared with 2.8 percent in 1980.

Population Change by Size of City

The population changes are seen more clearly by examining the probability of a population decline, given size of city. The probability is expressed simply as the percentage of cities in a specific size category reporting a decline. The above comparisons indicate that the very smallest cities had the highest probability of decrease since, as a group, their proportion of population has declined. This is, in reality, precisely what happened during the 1980s (Table 2).

The vast majority (80.2 percent) of communities with populations (1980) smaller than 500 lost population. More than three-quarters (76.0 percent) of the next larger city size (500 to 999) lost population also. In fact, the probability of a population decline is more than half for all cities in Illinois smaller than 20,000 residents. The chances of a decline continually decrease, though, up to 20,000 population. For cities larger than 20,000, the probability increases substantially and seems to hold until 50,000.

The 1980s were tough on small cities, especially in rural areas. Many were hurt by the depressed farm economy during the early part of the decade. Family farms were steady customers of main street businesses and as these farms consolidated, new owners bought supplies and marketed produce in larger cities. Farm families also rely on off-farm employment to supplement on-farm income. Because this employment is often in larger cities, workers also shop in these larger centers and, thereby, develop strong linkages. Retailing changed substantially during the 1980s with growth of discount stores in cities of 10,000 and above. These centers redirected retail trade from the smallest communities to larger centers.

The probability of having experienced a population decline was substantially higher in the 1980s than in the 1970s. Readers will remember a brief rural revitalization, a period in which it appeared that residents were seeking a less complicated life in a more rural setting, during the 1970s. That movement, however, was short-lived and the 1980s resumed the long-term decline for small towns. The probability of having a decline in the 1980s was higher for virtually all city categories smaller than 20,000. For very small communities, the difference in probability of decline was nearly 2.4 times higher in the 1980s than in the earlier decade.

Future Implications

The fact that population in Illinois was stagnant and that non-metro areas lost considerably compared with

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metro areas, creates several policy concerns. First, in some rural areas the threshold size for public services may not be met. Public schools immediately come to mind. There is a controversy in rural areas regarding the minimum size of school to provide a quality education at a price (property taxes) that land owners can afford. Students enrolled in these schools are caught in the middle. They must receive quality education to compete in today's labor force but, at the same time, they may have to be bussed inordinately long distances to secondary schools if consolidation occurs.

Second, retirees are a growing proportion of residents in small communities. These residents are more likely to need health care services and medical facilities are becoming less common in small communities, again because the threshold size for economic viability is not met. Alternative methods of health service delivery must be found in these areas.

Third, the reduced demand for housing in small communities, as residents migrate in search of a better future, means that housing sells at a relatively low price. This housing may attract long-term unemployed residents from larger cities. They can have a higher quality of life at reduced cost. While the financial benefits from welfare programs may be similar statewide, social services are limited in small communities. An increase in number of children from broken homes or increased disturbances from residents not gainfully employed can seriously tax the fiscal resources of small communities, many of which have a part-time police officer, volunteer fire department, and other limited services.

If services must be increased to accommodate changes in the population composition, more pressure will be exerted on the tax base. Since sales taxes and fees for services are relatively small, the main burden will be on property taxes. Schools that must provide expanded services for students from low income families will cost more in tax dollars and small communities will become less attractive for the relatively few families that wish to relocate there.

Finally, state agencies charged with responsibility for infrastructure investment in small communities face a serious dilemma. On one hand, without adequate water and sewer services, for example, residents' health may be threatened or at least the quality of life could be substantially reduced. In addition, without these public investments, potential business owners have little incentive to invest private funds. On the other hand, given the demands for public funding, it will be harder to justify large capital expenditures in small communities experiencing long-term population and/or economic decline.

These difficult issues will face state policy-makers for a long time to come. What is becoming increasingly clear, however, is the important role played by community leaders in arresting decline and solving comnunity problems. Given the present fiscal condition of the state, there will not be sufficient funds to meet the needs of all communities. Local leaders must find creative ways to finance local services, attract businesses, and solve other community problems.² If they cannot, the future for many small communities will not be bright. •

2. Examples of creative economic development strategies in small communities are shown in Norman Walzer, Economic development in Small Illinois Communities (Macomb, IL: Illinois Institute for Rural Affairs, 1990).

News items and photographs of interest indicating new developments and progress in your municipality are always of interest to our readers. You are urged to send such information to the ILLINOIS MUNICIPAL REVIEW for publication. Be sure your information is complete. All photographs should be black and white glossy prints. —Editor

April 1992 / Illinois Municipal Review / Page 19