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The Recovery Gains Strength
By JOHN B. CRIHFIELD
There is no mistaking it. The economic recovery is gaining strength in Illinois. For the first time since 1988, inflation-adjusted retail spending increased statewide year-to-year. From the third quarter 1991 through the third quarter 1992, real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) sales in Illinois grew 1.8 percent. Sales spurted in Chicago's collar counties, topped by real growth of 6.9 percent in Du-Page County and 6.1 percent in Lake County. For the seven collar counties surrounding Cook County, sales grew 5.8 percent. Real sales remained unchanged in Cook County, its best showing in over three years. Real spending growth was strong in other Illinois metropolitan areas. Sales grew 5.1 percent in the Joliet PMSA (Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area), 4.9 percent in the Bloomington-Normal MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area), 4.7 percent in the Peoria MSA, 3.3 percent in the Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul MSA, 3.2 percent in the Springfield MSA, 3.0 percent in the Aurora-Elgin PMSA, 1.6 percent in the St. Louis MSA (Illinois part), 1.5 percent in the Kankakee MSA, 1.4 percent in the Chicago PMSA, 1.0 percent in the Rockford MSA, and 0.6 percent in the Davenport-Rock Island-Moline MSA (Illinois part). Only the Decatur MSA experienced a decline (-1.7 percent). Metropolitan areas grew more rapidly than rural areas (2.0 percent versus 0.1 percent). Spending was little changed in predominantly agricultural counties, rural manufacturing counties, and rural counties with a mix of these industries. Economic activity is gathering momentum everywhere in the state. The recovery began modestly in the collar counties in the first and second quarters, and these counties continue to lead the way, followed by downstate metropolitan areas, Cook County, and rural Illinois. The recovery is young, and these developments appear likely to continue in coming quarters. These findings are based on state and local sales tax receipts from over 1750 reporting towns and cities throughout the state. Tax data are converted to spending for all types of sales, including food. Only sales for untaxed items, such as manufacturing and farm machinery, and from unincorporated areas are excluded. These data are useful for tracking local economic developments because they are current and highly disaggregated. They reflect attitudes about the future since consumers can adjust their spending behavior quickly. They also indicate economic turns before unemployment rates, which is a widely reported indicator in Illinois and elsewhere.
Table 1.
NOTE: Results for the Davenport-Rock Island-Moline MSA and the St. Louis MSA refer to Illinois parts only. "Collar counties" include DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties. "Downstate metropolitan" counties (dmc) include all other metropolitan counties in Illinois as defined by the federal government (18 counties). "Rural agricultural" counties (ag) include all rural counties in which employment in farming and agricultural services represents 15 percent or more of total county employment in 1986 (29 counties). "Rural manufacturing" counties (mfg) include all rural counties in which manufacturing employment represents 15 percent or more of total county employment in 1986 (21 counties), "Rural diversified" counties (rdc) include all other counties, several of which have employment shares of 15 percent or more in both agriculture and manufacturing (26 counties). • February 1993 / Illinois Municipal Review / Page 7 |
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