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By CHARLES N. WHEELER III

In coastal areas around the world, tides rise and fall with predictable regularity each day in response to the laws of celestial mechanics. About twice a month a spring tide occurs, when the moon and the sun are aligned and their combined gravitational pull produces a tide that is higher than normal.

A similar confluence of forces occurs less often in the ebb and flow of Illinois politics, but when it does, the results can be overwhelming. Just ask state Democrats, who are still reeling from a Republican tidal wave of awesome dimensions in last month's election.

The GOP swept all six constitutional offices, in most cases by landslide margins of better than 10 percentage points, led by Gov. Jim Edgar's rout of his Democratic challenger, state Comptroller Dawn dark Netsch.

Republicans also padded their Senate majority to 33-26 by ousting Sen. Grace Mary Stern (D-Highland Park). But the real shocker was the GOP resurgence in the House, where Republicans gained 13 seats to seize control, 64-54, ending a dozen years of minority status.

The GOP success in House races was propelled by a number of factors. As in other parts of the nation, disenchantment with President Bill Clinton seemed to spur Republicans to the polls while sapping Democratic turnout. Republican candidates also benefited from the top-of-the-ticket strength shown by Edgar, who beat Netsch by almost a 2-to-l margin. Equally important, though, was the home field advantage GOP candidates enjoyed thanks to the 1991 redistricting, in which Republicans won the right to draw new district boundaries for the '90s.

In the 1992 election, the first under the new map, Democrats lost five seats, but still held on to a 67-51 majority, in large part by winning in 14 districts with Republican leanings, while losing only two Democratic districts. In garnering a majority last month, the GOP reclaimed 11 of its 14 districts, as well as two more on Democratic turf, for a gain of 13.

As a result. Republicans will control the governorship and both chambers of the legislature for the first time since the 76th General Assembly, elected in 1968.

What might the GOP ascendancy mean for the Illinoisans? As a starting point, if current House Minority Leader Lee A. Daniels (R-Elmhurst) assumes the speakership, as seems likely, he will team with Senate President James "Pate" Philip (R-Wood Dale) as the first DuPage County tandem to serve as presiding officers.

Moreover, lawmakers from suburban-based districts will dominate both GOP caucuses, accounting for 21 of 33 in the Senate and 38 of 64 in the House. Thus, it seems reasonable to expect that a good portion of the agenda Republican leaders will pursue will be tailored to suburban interests. At the same time, the new GOP majorities are sharpening their knives for some venerable Democratic sacred cows.

Here's a look at some specific areas:

Tax caps. Although the vote was only advisory, lawmakers likely will take as a mandate the overwhelming vote favoring the imposition of property tax caps in Cook County similar to those now in place in the five collar counties, under which property tax billings can increase by no more than 5 percent or the rate of inflation, whichever is less.

In his first State of the State in 1991, Edgar announced a special session to enact tax caps statewide, but the gesture proved fruitless as Democrats limited the plan to the collar counties. With Republicans in control, caps seem certain, at least for Cook County.

Third airport. Lawmakers from the northwest suburbs long have sought to limit noise and air pollution from O'Hare International Airport, but were blocked while Democrats held the gavel. Under GOP control, a regional airport authority could surface to oversee O'Hare, Midway, and a new, third airport at the Peotone site favored by Edgar.

Education. Although Philip surprised many by suggesting property taxes should

6 / December 1994 / Illinois Issues

be swapped for higher income, sales and sin taxes, such a switch — the cornerstone of Netsch's school financing proposal — isn't likely to occur. The major obstacle is a political one — many legislative candidates ran against Netsch's plan and thus may now consider themselves locked into opposing any tax shift.

Moreover, regional concerns could split GOP lawmakers on the school funding issue. Suburbanites would like to ease the property tax burden for their constituents by changing the school aid formula to provide more state aid to relatively wealthy districts. Downstaters might not like that idea, however, because without a sizeable infusion of new money, the shift would mean less state aid for school districts outside the suburbs, where property values are less.

While chances seem slim for changing the way the state finances schools, Republicans now should be able to enact legislation affecting Chicago schools that Speaker Michael Madigan, a staunch ally of the Chicago Teachers Union, previously blocked. On the GOP must-do list are charter schools and a pilot voucher program; don't be surprised if House Republicans also pass legislation breaking the Chicago district into 10 or more separate districts, each with its own elected school board.

Business reforms. Key interest groups that for years have helped bankroll the GOP legislative effort now are eager to collect on their investment. Expect major changes in worker's compensation and the civil justice system, all designed to limit the conditions under which injured parties can sue and the amounts they can collect from negligent employers, bad doctors, makers of faulty consumer products or others who cause injuries.

Welfare reform. Republican majorities could pass a measure to cap welfare grants to women who give birth to additional children, a bill democrats used to block.

Abortion. The new General Assembly is expected to be less favorably disposed to abortion rights than the current one, enhancing chances for legislation that would require parents to be notified before a minor can have an abortion.

Charles N. Wheeler III is director of the Public Affairs Reporting program at Sangamon State University in Springfield.

December 1994 / Illinois Issues / 7