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Look into the future? Who will America be? More than likely America will be ethnically diverse and varied in ages as a society. The youth culture of the 1960s will give way to a more mature population. In fact, those who are over 65 years of age now out number those 18 years of age and under and will continue to do so into the future. The older population will be the majority and youth will be the minority. What has happened during this century for this phenomenon to occur? Where are we today and how will these changing demographics shape the leisure profession into the 21st century?

Past Context

The average life expectancy for humankind in 1200 A.D. was approximately 30 years of age. From 1200-1880A.D., the gain in years increased only to about the age of 45, or 15 more years to life expectancy. Throughout history only one person out of ten expected to live past 65 years of age. Now nearly 80% of the population can expect to live that long.

Today in America the average life expectancy is 74 years (69.9 years for men and 77.6 years for women). With breakthroughs on medicine, technology, and improved standards of living, the life expectancy is still growing. In this present century alone, life expectancy has increased 28 years.

Population growth among older adults has increased dramatically over the past 100 years. In 1880, the over 65 population totaled less than two million people or 3% of the total population. By 1980, the over 65 population numbered 25 million strong or comprised 11.3% of the U.S. population.

To gain another perspective relative to demographics, consider the total population growth of the U.S. The total U.S. population has only multiplied five times in its history. The over 65 population has multiplied 15 times! Every day 3,400 Americans die while 6,000 celebrate their 65th birthday. The rate of growth from 1990 to 2030 is projected to double to approximately 66 million older adults.

The total population ratio to older adults provides another viewpoint for consideration. In 1990, those over 65 to the rest of the population was one in eight. The projection in 2030 is one in five. The possibility exists by the year 2020 that every fourth person could be a "senior citizen." As more agencies, businesses, and organizations use the age of 55 as the "entry point" into the mature market, the ratio in 1990 would be one in five, and in 2030 the projections could be one in three!

Present Context

The growth of the older population is presenting some new challenges and opportunities for leisure service providers. Research would support that as people age they tend to become more heterogeneous and less homogeneous as a group. As this segment of the population grows, so does the demand for services as well as variety within these services.

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The challenge for leisure professionals is to recognize that the older population spans several different eras in history. The historical eras have shaped their thinking, attitudes, beliefs and preferences. This phenomenon is called the cohort effect. The professional needs to know the era from which his/her participants come. Older adults who lived through the Depression have a different life perspective from those who were part of the Vietnam War.

The growth of the older adult population creates a possible new approach to the delivery of leisure services. Leisure service for the older adult had traditionally put all older adults 65 years of age or older together as one group. This shotgun approach supports the view that there are a lack of diversity or need within the older population. Life spans and marketing research are helping identify different segments of this older population that will require new and specialized leadership. If the preretirement group (those 55 and over) continue to be included in the older adult population, four specialized aging groups may be present. They could include: 1) pre-retirement (55-64 years of age); 2) young-old (65-74 years of age); 3) middle old (75-84 years of age); 4) and old-old (85 years and up).

If these segments emerge with identifiable leisure needs that are unique to each respective age group, leisure service providers will be confronted with the challenge to provide leadership that is sensitive to age-specific needs and concerns. Just as child and adolescent development have become specialized and focused on the unique stages within those periods of life, so does the possibility exist for those who work with an aging population. The other dimension that must be coupled with age needs is where an individual is within the family cycle.

The potential age grouping above suggests unique features in the family life cycle that shape and influence the personal life of an individual. The pre-retirement group is possibly experiencing a renewal of relationship with a spouse. The need for leisure services that support couple interaction and togethemess is important. Yet, the future population statistics suggest that there is a large group of aging individuals who have remained single throughout the life cycle and present unique challenges, opportunities and perspectives to the leisure professional.

The young-old (65-74) begin to reflect individuals who are losing a spouse. Due to the life expectancy information, this life event is primarily a female phenomenon. Leisure experiences could provide communication and support during this transition. The middle-old (75-84) age group is focusing on re-establishment of an identity as a single older adult. The need for leisure activities that provide socialization and personal growth in the areas of self-esteem and self-worth could be appropriate. The old-old (85+) is adjusting and attempting to accept changes in personal life with increasing loss of friends and changing physical conditions. The leisure needs at this stage of life and beyond may in the future require at-home opportunities and out-reach support from the community.

TRENDS The leisure professional of today with a vision for the future must view aging as a process and not a singular point on the continuum of life. The aging experience is dynamic and not static, and this perspective must be reflected in the leisure services provided.

Future Context The leisure professional of today with a vision for the future must view aging as a process and not a singular point on the continuum of life. The aging experience is dynamic and not static, and this perspective must be reflected in the leisure services provided. The present aging population and their leisure needs and interests cannot be imposed upon the next generation. The coming aging population will be more educated, health conscious, and committed the importance of leisure in an individual's life. In order to be on the cutting edge of leisure services for this aging population, an agency/business/ organization must offer multiple opportunities for involvement, participation and engagement. Auni-dimensional approach will not be adequate for the heterogeneous features of this group. The emerging aging population will have moved from a focus on "body beautiful" to "heart strong." This shift in perspective is beginning to surface in programs that demonstrate stress-reducing exercise, meaningful social interaction, nutrition guidance, and intergenerational exchange. The captive population for older adult recreation programs of today will be placed by a future older market that will be involved in the workforce well into the traditional years of early retirement experienced in recent years. Due to the potential new models of retirement that would include part-time job sharing and phased retirement, the way in which aging individuals will experience retirement will be different from today's older adults. The future older adults' availability and needs will present new challenges for leisure professionals.

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Many factors will possibly shape the work involvement in retirement as a leisure choice. One factor will be the declining workforce size and the need for qualified workers. For some older adults retirement will provide the opportunity of pursuing a new career after experiencing some dissatisfying work careers. Volunteering by older adults accounts for 163,000 hours every day in America. The potential for continued volunteering exists for the future, particularly if an agency, business, or organizatons is viewed as being concerned with values or social causes. The parks, recreation and leisure field will be challenged and motivated to communicate values and causes that the emerging older volunteer believes in and supports. The aging volunteers will be a value and cause driven because of who they have been throughout their history as a cohort.

The parks, recreation, and leisure field's response to the older population must continue to see the future as a new challenge and not status quo in order to meet the needs of participants. The future aging population will be actively parenting well into the stage of life that is now seen as preretirement with an "empty nest." Another segment of this older group will be childless as a lifestyle choice and will continue to expect and demand another dimension and variety of leisure services. Yet another identifiable portion of the aging population will have been single all of life (50%). Their life experiences will have shaped their perspective and will reflect unique leisure needs at this point.

The changing complexion of the American population is creating a new future. The possibilities and demands are yet unknown. One thing is for sure, the servicing of older adults will require leisure professionals to know and understand this population as unique and varied in interests as well as preferences. The same old approach and standard menu of activities must be placed with creative, innovative programs and services that are needs based. Leisure professionals who can anticipate the changes and envision the coming future will position themselves as the leaders with the aging of America.

*References for this article are available upon request from the author.

K. Dale Adkins, Re.D.,CLP, is Assistant Professor in the Department of Recreation, Parks and Tourism Administration at Western Illinois University. Areas of interest include: aging, family, residential camping, and church recreation. *

30 * Illinois Parks & Recreation * November/December 1994