A View from Metro East

By PATRICK E. GAUEN

Nature abhors a vacuum, the science teachers say, but ambitious politicians love one and Sen. Paul Simon's retirement created a dandy.

Urged by Simon himself, U.S. Rep. Dick Durbin threw his future into the vortex and created a strong, if less noticed, vacuum of his own in a diverse and large congressional district that ranges from the Executive Mansion in Springfield down to part of Metro East, the state's second largest urban area.

At least a dozen people of varying political stripes are seriously considering the race, with perhaps others waiting to identify themselves in the months remaining before the December 18 filing deadline.

This is Abraham Lincoln's old district, and a key battleground the Republican Party needs to regain to bolster its majority in Washington. It isn't so much a matter of regaining it in the name of Lincoln, who after all was elected to one term from this district in 1846 as a Whig — before the Republican Party was born. But it could be payback time for Durbin's defeat of the GOP's Paul Findley, who reigned for 11 terms.

It could be payback time for Democrat Richard Durbin's 1982 defeat of the OOP's Paul Findley

Findley was forced out in 1982, in large measure by his avowed support of Palestine Liberation Organization leader Yasir Arafat and by the pro-Israel cash that support generated for a relatively unknown Simon protege named Durbin. The challenger also saddled Findley with some of the blame for the recession that occurred during Ronald Reagan's watch.

The 20th, drawn by Republicans to meet demands of the 1990 Census, brought together distant reaches of more than a half million people with little in common but statehood and the fact that 95 percent of them are white. Only Democratic Rep. Glenn Poshard's huge 19th District has more of the state's counties than the 20th, which includes 15 plus parts of four others.

From the oil and coal fields near Mount Vemon to the corn and bean fields that fill the landscape toward Quincy, the district carves a vague S-shape across southwestern Illinois that manages to capture 100,000 people from the suburban and farm component of Madison County. One appendage juts through the underbelly of Sangamon County to snatch two-thirds of Springfield and a Republican voter base to counter Madison County's solidly Democratic base.

In this configuration, the Metro East area lost the homogeneity of a single congressman, leaving Democratic Rep. Jerry Costello of Belleville a 12th District that dribbles down the Mississippi River from the populous and industrial corridor of Madison County across St. Clair and all the way to Cairo.

Durbin never felt he could take the 20th for granted, and his two re-elections in the new boundaries confirmed the risk. John Shimkus, halfway through his first term as treasurer of Madison County and unknown elsewhere, got more than 119,000 votes in 1992, losing to Durbin in a 57-43 percent finish. Bill Owens got 45 percent of a smaller overall vote two years later, even though he was a construction worker with no elective credentials. (Bill Clinton may have owned the district in 1992, but George Bush won it, narrowly, in '88. Votes for trustees of the University of Illinois, presumed by insiders to be purely party-driven because of the anonymity of the candidates, have gone both ways here.)

Shimkus already planned to try again before Durbin jumped ship. He enters with some real advantage as a West Point grad with a squeaky-clean image and an easygoing way that won him re-election last year in a county that hates Republicans. That gives him a base in one populous area while he works the other, in Springfield, through contacts made four years ago.

Owens' 1994 showing reflected the advantage of being the Republican in a Republican year, but his right-wing, John

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Birch Society credentials cannot be discounted as a draw for a significant point of view.

Carl Oblinger, the Republican circuit clerk of Sangamon County and son of former state Rep. Josephine Oblinger, plans to bring his popular family name to the race, but for now its power fades with distance from the capital.

Another possible is Jim Howard, the radio reporter whose stint as flack for State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka ended in resignation and his allegations of paper shredding in the hotel loan settlement controversy.

Other Republican hopefuls at last check included Rick Angel, a retired police detective and now a security consultant in Litchfield; Shirley Roney, a public relations specialist for a social work agency in Centralia; and Patrick Baikauskas, legislative director for the Department of Mental Health and Developmental Disabilities. All three suffer unknown names.

Barring shifts in other districts, the race in the 20th gives Republicans a shot at controlling the state's U.S. representative delegation.

Meanwhile, the Democrats desperately need to hold every seat as a foundation to win back the House, and Durbin's move has energized more than a few candidates. But the most obvious, state Sen. Vince Demuzio of Carlinville, the former state party chairman, said he will not run, deferring to three-term state Rep. Jay Hoffman of Collinsville who insists he hasn't decided yet.

Joe Dunn, Simon's Springfield aide, will soon need a job and has indicated a strong interest in Durbin's old one. Dunn brings familiarity to the district's party leaders, but not necessarily its voters.

Other Democrats voicing some interest include Michael Curran, a former state representative who lost this year's mayoral election in Springfield; Leslie Sgro, president of the Springfield Park Board; and Sam Cahnman, a Springfield lawyer.

The voters of the 20th may have to keep a pretty long scorecard for the March 19 primary, but if all these folks run, nobody can complain there aren't enough choices.

Patrick E. Gauen covers Illinois politics for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

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