Chicago's southern suburbs are shaping up as a key battleground in this year's legislative campaigns.

It's there that the Democrats are counting on winning at least half the seats they'll need to regain a voting majority in the Illinois House. They hope to do that by capturing three districts held by Republicans, two of which were lost by a handful of votes in the 1994 GOP landslide.

Since the 1992 remap, the parties have become more evenly matched in those districts to the south and west of the city. But the Democrats believe recent population shifts could tip the balance in their favor over the long haul. In the short term, they're banking on a high voter turnout in a presidential year to make up the difference.

Meanwhile, big bucks from both parties are flowing into candidates'coffers, and campaign literature began landing in voters' mailboxes as early as last year. "The south suburbs will resemble Bosnia," says Paul Green, director of The Institute of Public Policy and Administration at Governors State University in University Park,south of the city's border.

The area defined as the south suburbs reaches from the city's border to the northern edge of Will County and from the Indiana state line to as far as Cicero on the west. It includes five House districts where the contest between the two parties has narrowed in recent years.

For starters, the Democrats express some hope of unseating the Republican in the 37th House District, which includes Tinley Park, Orland Park and Homewood. They believe the incumbent, former Homewood Mayor John Doody, is vulnerable. Doody, who is running his first state race, was appointed to the post last year following Republican Ed Zabrocki's resignation. A second district, the 38th, represented by Republican Larry Wennlund, also is worth watching because the Democrats have begun to make gains in some areas.

But the Democrats' best chances appear to be in the 79th and the 80th districts, directly to the south of the city, and the 35th, which lies to the southwest.

Voter loyalty is evenly divided in these districts, and both parties have strong precinct organizations.But population shifts would seem to favor the Democrats. The migration of older whites from the south suburbs and the influx of middle-class blacks — traditionally Democratic voters — who are fleeing Chicago has provided Democratic Party leaders with renewed optimism.

The 79th and 80th districts incorporate most of Bloom and Thornton townships, where blacks have moved. According to U.S. Census figures, between 1980 and 1990 more than 20,000 blacks moved to Thornton Township, southeast of Chicago.

In the same decade, more than 40,000 whites died or moved out of the township. In Bloom Township, south of the city, the African-American population increased by 5,000, while more than 15,000 whites left.

In the 79th, Republican Bill Balthis,the popular former Lansing mayor and three-term state representative, has decided not to seek re-election, making that district even more competitive. Mike Giglio, the son of ThorntonTownship Democrat Committeeman and former state Rep. Frank Giglio of

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Calumet City, is the party-backed Democratic candidate. Balthis' hand-picked successor, Marvin Lyzenga, who is in his 11th year as Lansing trustee, is the Republican candidate.

Giglio will have an indisputable edge. He's expected to get a windfall of votes because of his father's name, an established Democratic precinct organization and the growing minority population in conservative Lansing and Calumet City. A political novice who runs his family's plumbing business, Giglio has been quietly raising a war chest. In January, 275 supporters attended a $60-a-plate dinner for Giglio, a hefty price for that district's middle-class voters.

In the 80th District, Republican freshman Rep. Flora Ciarlo of Stegerwill defend her seat for the first time against Democrat George Scully, a Flossmoor attorney. Two years ago,she ousted Democratic incumbent John Ostenburg of Park Forest by 1,228 votes. Ciarlo scored big in Bloom Township, which includes theGOP enclave of Chicago Heights,thanks to an anti-Democratic mood and support from her mentor, Republican state Sen. Aldo DeAngelis of Chicago Heights.

Ciarlo's House district makes uppart of DeAngelis' Senate district. DeAngelis serves as assistant majority leader in the Senate and is the area's most influential politician. "I felt like I was running against both of them," Ostenburg says.

This year, though, DeAngelis is expected to have his hands full getting himself re-elected against Crete Township Clerk Debbie Halvorson. And the Democrats have been encouraged by recent gains in the Heights, where they captured city council seats and the mayor's post last year.

The 35th District is considered a swing district. In 1994, Democrats lost the seat by a mere 16 votes. Eight-year incumbent state Rep. Terry Steczo of Palos Heights was ousted by Palos Heights Republican Jack O'Connor, a former police officer and auto salesman. Mike Cys, spokesman for House Republican Speaker Lee Daniels, says O'Connor's support among middle-class suburban voters will make him a cinch to win re-election against newcomer Maggie Crotty. He maintains the district has always been considered safe for Republicans. "The only Democrat who could win that seat isTerry Steczo, and he's not running,"Cys says.

Meanwhile, both parties have tried to harness a handful of issues to help them garner support. In general, the voters in this area are demanding more state dollars for their schools, they don't want garbage burned in their backyard and they favor economic development through a third airport at Peotone.

But because the parties are so evenly matched in voter loyalty, candidates have been cautious about staking out positions radically different from those of their opponents. " Candidates will be looking for vulnerability," says Ed Zabrocki. " Even if they agree on 95 percent of the issues, that 5 percent is going to be exploited."

But the outcome in the 35th, as well as the 79th and 80th, will rest on the parties' ability to get their supporters to the polls. Voter turn out, down considerably for both parties in the off-year election of 1994, helped Republicans seize control of the legislature, 64 to 54, and made Lee Daniels, an Elmhurst Republican, the first Illinois GOP House speaker since 1982.

The low turn out in '94 has been attributed in part to a weak Democratic statewide ticket that year. "The top of the ticket two years ago was one of the greatest debacles in Illinois history," says Chicago political analyst Don Rose. The bipartisan campaign consultant attributes the apathetic electorate to the beleaguered campaign of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Dawn Clark Netsch.

Not only did a low voter turnout kill Democrats across the board in 1994, but straight ticket voting dropped off dramatically for that party while GOP ballots held steady. "If [Bill] Clinton and [Al] Gore don't run well in the state, we won't run well," says Tom Cullen, a spokesman for House Democratic Leader Michael Madigan. "But, with [presidential contender Bob] Dole and [U.S. House Speaker Newt] Gingrich, you can't say the Republicans aren't worried," he adds.

Terry Steczo understands the value of voter turnout. In 1992, he won in a newly drawn district that pitted him against another veteran legislator, Jane M. Barnes. That year, 42,351 voters went to the polls. In 1994, the year he was defeated, the total vote fell to27,636. "There was just no enthusiasm to come out and vote," Steczo says."People came up to me afterwards and said, 'I didn't think you needed me.'"

But a presidential year generally draws more voters to the polls. And Democratic leaders are counting on their middle-class constituents to return to the fold.

They're also relying on their traditional allies, including minorities, to give them the edge. Bloom Township Democratic Committeeman Terry Matthews points to the racial makeup to bolster that party's hopes. But Cys

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believes that geography helps shape voters' concerns. "Regardless of who you are, when you move to the suburbs you automatically become a suburbanite, and you have different concerns from people who live in the city. Minorities move for the same reasonsas whites."

The effort for both parties will require dollars and campaign volunteers. It gets expensive for candidates running in the targeted districts. Balthis, for instance, expects candidates gunning for his seat could spend a combined half a million dollars — though candidates in the south suburbs don't tend to use TV ads.

And suburban voters are bracing for an onslaught of Chicago foot soldiers expected to be shipped in by Democrats to stump on suburban streets. "There is a parallel to Chicago 20 years ago and what's happening in the south suburbs now," says Don Rose.

Still, Mike Cys believes that strategy is outdated. " We can't supply the army the Democrats have, but how many suburban residents want a Chicago Democrat knocking on their door who is going to make sure their tax dollars go to [Chicago] schools?"

Even Democrats acknowledge cracks in what had been considered a well-oiled party organization. Signs of this surfaced in November when only a handful of the township organizations in the south suburban part of the 2nd Congressional District managed to deliver for state Sen. Emil Jones Jr. in the special election primary to succeed Mel Reynolds. The race was won by newcomer Jesse Jackson Jr.

Cullen attributes the problem to low voter registration, particularly in minority precincts. He blames Republicans for stalling on the federal motor-voter law, which in Illinois allows constituents to sign up to vote for federal elections but not state and local races when they renew their driver's licenses.

But Democrats allow it's been difficult to garner traditional organizationhelp. "It's getting harder and harder tofind the precinct captains we were used to to knock on doors and get involved," says Frank Giglio, who recently revived the township's Young Democrats program to bring minorities and new residents into the organiztion. " Now, if citizens have complaints, they go right to City Hall."

But state Sen. Bill Shaw, a Dolton Democrat, and Chicago Heights activist Tony Mathis contend that a lack of interest in minority concerns and the dearth of African Americans holding powerful positions in the party organization is proving costly to the Democrats.These two blame the party for relying on black communities during election time, but failing to deliver for them after the votes are counted. "The [Democratic] organization is not reflecting the diversity of the south suburbs," says Mathis. " They only cater to a few, and they think they have a pipeline in the community. I don't think [blacks] will be voting Republican any time soon, but they may decide to stay home on Election Day."

But the matter may come down to a difference in city versus suburban campaign styles. " I had Chicago guys in here asking residents about tree trimming, garbage cans and the alleys," says Ostenburg. " If I went to the mayor of Park Forest and told him I needed a sidewalk repaired to get five votes, after he finished laughing, he would have told me to get my ass out of his office, "

Scott Burnham, a reporter for The IllinoisTimes of Lansing, covers the south suburbs.

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