Nearly 150 years after a young railroad lawyer named Abraham Lincoln won a single term in Congress, much of the area he represented south and west of Springfield retains the rural character the future president knew so well.

The slower pace in many of the hamlets Lincoln visited on his circuit hasn't changed much over the years. But today the 20th Congressional District includes small central Illinois towns, an urban state capital and suburban enclaves across the Mississippi River from St. Louis, encompassing more than half a million people from the corn and bean fields near Quincy to the oil and coal fields surrounding Mt. Vernon.

Appealing to diverse groups within Appealing to diverse groups within the sprawling 20th Congressional District in central and southern Illinois can be a challenge for any politician. The slower pace in the rural areas and small towns hasn't changed much since Abraham Lincoln practiced law in this region of the state.

26 ¦ October 1996 Illinois Issues

the sprawling district (the 20th incorporates nearly 9, 500 square miles in 19 counties) is a challenge for any politician. With Democratic U.S. Rep. Dick Durbin leaving after 14 years to run for the U.S. Senate, Democrats and Republicans are searching for the magic formula to win the hotly contested open seat — one of a handful nation-wide with no incumbent and therefore no record to run against.

The race features two tested office holders from Collinsville who are seeking to cast themselves in the moderate- to-conservative political tone of the district. Like many other contests across the country, the campaign also is turning into a referendum on House Speaker Newt Gingrich's conservative agenda. With help from Gingrich, the Republicans swept both houses of Congress in 1994. In this state, the GOP picked up two House seats. So, along with races for the 5th Congressional District in Chicago and the U.S.

Senate seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Paul Simon, the out- come in the 20th could help decide the course of American politics for the next several years and determine whether Republicans take control of the Illinois delegation.

Republican John Shimkus is making a second bid for the seat. In 1992, less than halfway through his first term as treasurer of Madison County, he ran against the popular Durbin as a virtual unknown and still picked up more than 119, 000 votes. Durbin's 57 percent victory was closer than expected, encouraging Republicans to plan a more coordinated effort this time out.

Shimkus, a 38-year-old West Point graduate, wants to join the Gingrichled GOP revolution and vows to "make the tough cuts that will be necessary to balance the budget." But he also is more cautious, a reflection perhaps of Gingrich's recent image problems. National opinion polls show voters are wary of controversial Republican proposals to curb spending on Medicare, education and environmental protection. Nevertheless, Shimkus' stump speech takes a page out of the GOP'S "Contract With America."

"This is a district of small business owners and farmers that want less government, lower taxes, less regulations and a balanced budget," says Shimkus. "I'm backing a conservative agenda for a conservative district."

While Shimkus echoes the rhetoric of business lobbyists. Democratic state Rep. Jay Hoffman sounds more at home in one of the region's union halls. He stresses that he was an early supporter of the politically popular minimum wage increase pushed by President Bill Clinton and reluctantly approved by the Republican-controlled Congress. (Shimkus opposed the bill, predicting it will discourage hiring by companies that can't afford to pay higher wages.)

Today the 20th Congressional District includes an urban state capital and suburban enclaves across the Mississippi River from St. Louis, encompassing more than half a million people from the corn and bean fields near Quincy to the oil and coalfields surrounding Mt. Vernon.

Illinois Issues October 1996 ¦ 27

"I'm an unabashed supporter of working families," says Hoffman, 35. "People are concerned about bread and butter issues like working for a decent wage, not some extreme right- wing agenda."

In a district that includes Republican and Democratic strongholds and is home to farmers, blue-collar workers and state employees, observers say the battle will be won by the candidate who ends up capturing the current mood among voters. "It really looks to be a toss-up right now," says John Jackson, a political science professor at Southern Illinois University in Carbondale. "I think many of the voters haven't decided yet which candidate understands their life and plight, identifies with their values and is concerned about them personally."

Past elections suggest voters are more concerned about economic issues than party labels. Former Republican President George Bush narrowly carried the district in 1988. Bill Clinton ran strongly here in 1992.

Durbin ousted 11-term GOP Rep. Paul Findley in 1982 in part by holding him responsible for the national recession that took a heavy toll on the region's farming and industrial sectors. Despite a voting record that Republicans claimed was more liberal than his district, Durbin coasted through subsequent re-election contests in the 1980s by focusing on constituent services and frequent trips home to travel the district.

Forced into new areas under a Republican-drawn map at the beginning of the decade, Durbin faced his first serious challenger in Shimkus, a Republican elected in a mostly Democratic county who tried to tap into widespread dissatisfaction with Congress in general and incumbents in particular. Even though Republicans didn't target the district two years ago, the GOP revolution held Durbin to 55 percent of the vote against construction worker and political neophyte Bill Owens, a member of the extreme-right John Birch Society.

Both Shimkus and Hoffman can rightly claim to represent the views of voters in the 20th this year. If that sounds odd. consider the wavering demands of citizens throughout the country: On one hand, people say they want lower taxes, less government and a balanced budget. But they also want to keep expensive programs like Medicare and Medicaid, adequately fund education and expand crime- fighting efforts. Those conflicting views help explain why the two parties have traded control of the White House and Congress during the 1990s.

Whoever wins Lincoln's old district almost assuredly will face a tough challenger two years from now because the highly partisan political culture makes it easier to attack an incumbent lawmaker's record than to defend it.

"People are disgruntled with the way things are going, and so the only option they have left is to vote against the incumbent," says Debbie Paschal, executive director of the Jefferson County Chamber of Commerce.

In a district that includes Republican and Democratic strongholds, and is home to farmers, blue-collar workers and state employees, observers say the race will go to the candidate who ends up capturing the current mood among voters.

Paschal knows how difficult it can be to appeal to voters today. Before taking her current job, she ran the district office of former state Rep. Larry Hicks, a Mt. Vernon Democrat swept out by the Republican tide of 1994. While Hicks was hurt by an ethics scandal, the result still was startling because the coal-producing county has been a Democratic stronghold for decades.

Moving through the coal fields and the traditionally Republican farm country to the north and west, one enters sparsely populated areas that have been unable to shake off double- digit unemployment rates. But even in a region where the median household income is $26, 173, there is little talk about government being the answer to societal problems.

Shimkus doesn't back off his party's firm stance that individuals in a free-market economy can pull themselves up. "If you cut taxes and get the government out of people's lives, they can figure out how to make it work," he says. Shimkus boasts about returning his pay raise from his government job and cutting costs in his office.

However, when asked by the nonpartisan group Project Vote Smart to list areas of the federal budget he would cut or eliminate, the only area Shimkus checked off was arts funding. Reflecting recent opinion polls, Shimkus said funding for Medicare and Medicaid should be increased rather than limited under a plan proposed by House

Republicans. "I got nailed by Durbin four years ago on Medicare," Shimkus says. "I've got to be careful so it doesn't happen again."

Shimkus is banking on better name recognition from his first race in the 20th and strong backing from business groups like the National Federation of Independent Business, which has made the district one of its top priorities. "It's a small-town district. A lot of it is going to be determined by face to face campaigning with voters," says John Davis, the NFIB's political director for the eastern United States and former director of the state federation.

Hoffman, a former assistant state's attorney in St. Clair County, has emphasized anti-crime measures during his five-year stint in the Illinois House. He earned a reputation as a tough campaigner after beating long- time Rep. Ron Stephens, a Troy Republican, in 1990.

But when it came time to vote on a measure allowing the state to issue bonds to fund new prisons last year, Hoffman joined his fellow Democrats in blocking the bill. It was one of the few ways Democrats could protest being shut out of talks on the overall state budget by the majority Republicans. "If you are for a balanced budget like I am, we shouldn't be borrowing more money when our state finances aren't in order," says Hoffman, ignoring the fact that prisons and other state construction projects have been funded that way for decades.

28 ¦ October 1996 Illinois Issues

Like Democratic candidates throughout the country, Hoffman is trying to tie Shimkus to Gingrich rather than articulate his own agenda. In fact, organized labor is expected to channel $35 million to Democratic congressional candidates across the country. Some of those resources are coming into the 20th, but labor spokespersons aren't saying how much help they're giving Hoffman. Nevertheless, after suffering crushing defeats two years ago, union leaders see the 20th District as an important line of defense against GOP policies.

"There are 60, 000 trade union members and 20, 000 retirees in this district, not counting teachers," says Mike Hade, president of the Springfield and Central Illinois Trades and Labor Council. "People here don't want a tax cut for the rich. They want secure jobs and their pensions protected from corporate raiders."

To be sure, Shimkus and Hoffman target their rhetoric on the campaign trail to appeal to conservative Christians, state employees and university workers in Springfield and coal miners in the southern part of the district.

As the district reflects the mood of the country, so may the election mirror the result at the top of the ticket. "If Bob Dole melts down, it could spell big trouble for Shimkus," says Davis of the NFIB. "But if Clinton's poll numbers drop dramatically, Hoffman will be running as fast as he can to get away. The situation is so volatile right now, anything could happen."

Michael Hawthorne moves to Columbus, Ohio, this month to become a Statehouse reporter/or the Cincinnati Enquirer. We wish him well.

Democrats expect to retake Chicago's 5th Two months before the 1994 elections, Republican Gov. Jim Edgar couldn't remember the name of his party's candidate for the 5th Congressional District seat held by political powerhouse Dan Rostenkowski, a Chicago Machine Democrat who had represented the area since 1959. But five days before the election, polls showed the scandal-plagued Rostenkowski was in trouble. Republican Michael Flanagan, who decided to enter the race during a game of darts with friends at a North Side saloon, suddenly was transformed from being Rosty's token opponent into a modern David with a shot to take down a political giant. Flanagan's upstart victory was a startling ripple in the GOP tidal wave two years ago, but now Democrats want the district back. The 5th is a key battleground for partisan control of the House, but retaking the district also is a matter of pride for the city's dominant Democrats. After all, they had held the seat since the 1940s. Contrary to conventional wisdom, though, the 5th isn't a Democratic stronghold. Voters there chose Ronald Reagan in 1984 and George Bush in 1988, even as Rostenkowski continued to dispatch opponents with ease. The district includes independent-minded Lakefront Liberals as well as portions of the Bungalow Belt on the city's Northwest Side, a working-class enclave of Poles, Latvians and other immigrants with southern and eastern European backgrounds who tend to be more socially conservative. "This isn't the predominantly liberal district everybody thinks it is," says John Davis, political director in the eastern United States for the National Federation of Independent Business. "We think we have an excellent chance to hold on to the seat." The federation is one of several business — and conservative — groups aiding Flanagan with campaign cash and political organizers. While the usually well-organized Democrats took Flanagan for granted in 1994, they vow to redouble their efforts this year. Their candidate is state Rep. Rod Blagojevich, an ambitious young lawyer known in political circles as the son-in-law of 33rd Ward Alderman Dick Mell. The well-oiled precinct machine Mell controls gives the Democrats a huge advantage. Flanagan, meanwhile, echoes much of the conservative agenda advanced by House Speaker Newt Gingrich, accusing Democrats of pushing government and people to live beyond their means. But he sometimes has been willing to buck the party line when it conflicts with the views of his constituents. For instance, he was the only House Republican who voted against the fiscal 1996 budget resolution, arguing that the proposed spending cuts would hurt cities. He broke ranks this summer with his allies in the business community and voted for politically popular legislation raising the minimum wage. Still, Democrats and their supporters in organized labor are waging an expensive assault on Flanagan's record by tying him to Gingrich. Union-financed television ads have been running for months accusing him of voting against earlier versions of the minimum wage bill. To nobody's surprise, the 5th is one of the top districts targeted by national Democrats this fall. "This is the most Democratic district in the country that is represented by a Republican," says Jim Whitney, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Gingrich has visited the city on several occasions to help Flanagan raise money. But one sign the freshman congressman may be in trouble comes from Edgar, the popular governor who was re-elected in 1994 with 64 percent of the vote statewide. "I don't know if I can help him," says Edgar. "As you know, that area isn't one of my strongest." Michael Hawthorne

Illinois Issues October 1996 ¦ 29