Municipal Population Changes, 1990-94
Cities differed in population changes during the 1980s but, by and large, most lost population and the smallest cities, especially those smaller than 1,000, fared worst. Specifically, 83.2 percent of cities smaller than 500 lost population in the 1980s and the comparable figure for those between 500 and 999 population was 79.6 percent. While larger cities fared somewhat better, the only population size group in which fewer than half of the cities lost population was 10,000 to 19,999.

The reasons for population declines differ by city characteristics. For instance, those in nonmetropolitan areas (non-MSAs) were affected by the relatively poor farm economy and loss of agricultural employment during the early 1980s. Many rural regions were slow in recovering. Larger cities suffered relatively high unemployment because of declines in manufacturing and populations which left in search of better employment opportunities.

The 1990s, on the other hand, show some signs of a better future tor many Illinois cities, based on preliminary estimates of population change provided by the Bureau of the Census. These figures are only estimates and the actual population changes will not be known until the next decennial census, except for those cities which undertake a special census before that time.

This article examines the estimated population changes in Illinois cities between 1990 and 1994, based on the Census estimates. The trends are examined by size of city, economic base of the county in which the cities are located, and distance from a metro center (city of 25,000 and larger). These categories allow municipal officials to compare the experiences in their cities with comparable cities statewide based on size and location.

Population Changes by Size of City
Contrary to the experiences in the 1980s, the average city in every size classification had a greater than 50 percent probability of having had population growth between 1990 and 1994 (Table 1). Over most size categories, the probability of a city having had an increase varied directly with size. The peak was in the cities of 10,000 to 19,999 (88.6 percent) and during the 1980s, this size group also performed best in terms of population change. Cities of 20,000 and larger, however, experienced lower probabilities of growth and 73.9 percent of those larger than 50,000 had estimated increases during this period.

"The authors are director and research associate in the Illinois Institute for Rural Affairs at Western Illinois University. They thank Bill Westerhold, IIRA, for assistance in tabulating cities by distance from metro centers.

Table 1. Estimated Population Change by City Size in Illinois, 1980-94

City Size	1980	Number of Cities 1990	1994	Percent Cities with Decl. Pop. '80-'90	Percent Cities with Incr. Pop. '90-'94
Less than 500	374	395	385	83.2	50.1
500-999	251	241	236	79.6	63.6
1.000-2,499	252	230	237	70.7	70.5
2,500-9.999	226	239	239	53.1	78.2
10,000-19,999	93	87	88	45.3	88.6
20,000-49,999	65	70	76	51.4	85.5
50,000 or greater	20	22	23	40.9	73.9
Total	1,281	1,284	1,284	69.7	66.7

Source: 1994 Place Estimates. [Population Estimates Branch of the Census] (Online) Available: FTP: census.gov/pub/population/estimates/place File; sc94flil.zip.

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While size is one factor affecting viability of a city, other characteristics such as employment base of the area are also crucial in determining prosperity. In the 1980s, for instance, heavy losses in manufacturing industries contributed to population declines. Also important are distances from larger urban areas, such as cities of 25,000 or more, that serve as employment centers for the surrounding region. Each of these characteristics is discussed in more detail below.

Cities by Economic Base of County
Since much interest has been expressed in studying population changes by economic base of the region, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has classified counties across the U.S. into six broad types, based on percentage of income derived from a specific industry and other factors. Illinois counties were classified based on these characteristics and the average population changes of cities in these counties were calculated (Table 2). During the 1980s, farming-dependent counties experienced the greatest population declines of any group, followed closely by mining-dependent counties. In the 1990s, the estimated population changes tell a different story. Instead of declines, all of the economic base classifications showed increases, although the probabilities differ by group.

Cities in service-dependent counties are estimated to have had the largest growth (1.6 percent), followed closely (1.4 percent) by cities in farming-dependent counties and manufacturing counties. Worst off are mining counties, although even in this case no change, rather than a decline, is reported. Given that service industries are expanding more rapidly than manufacturing and other sectors, it only makes sense that cities in service counties will fare better than many of their counterparts.

If these population estimates hold, one might conclude that the population expansion is affecting cities across the state, with relatively little regard for economic base, except maybe in mining counties. Again, the fact that these are only estimates may mean very different results when the actual census is taken in 2,000. One should also remember that many unique factors affect population trends and data on most of these factors are not available in the non-Census years.

Distance From Large Metro Center
More and more policy-makers understand the links between metro centers and surrounding communities. Often, the metro centers provide a major employment base for surrounding cities and if the metro center does not prosper economically, the surrounding area suffers as well.

To determine the impacts of population and employment changes in the larger centers, cities were classified by distance from a city of 25,000 or larger (excluding the Chicago MSA) with the probability of the cities having had a population increase calculated. One might expect that cities more closely surrounding the larger center will experience greater population increases than cities farther away due to a spillover of economic activity. A quick comparison of cities indicates that this is the case (Table 3). There are 172 cities

Table 2. City Population Change by Economic Type, 1980-94

Characteristic	1980	Population 1990	1994	Percent Change 1980-90	Percent Change 1990-94	n
by Economic Base: Farming-dependent	34,376	31,167	31,607	-9.3	1.4	39
Mining-dependent	90,483	82,856	82,887	-8.4	0.0	47
Manufacturing-dependent	230,335	217,460	220,540	-5.6	1.4	78
Government-dependent	92,545	88,911	89,959	-3.9	1.2	49
Service-dependent	522,875	491,082	498,855	-6.1	1.6	271
Nonspecialized	322,392	303,599	305,258	-5.8	0.5	220

Source: 1989 Revised County Typologies. [USDA Economic Research Services] (Online) Available: gopher://mann77.mannlib.cornell.edu: 70/11/data-sets/rural/86005/3 File typo189.wkl and 1994 Place Estimates. [Population Estimates Branch of the Census] (Online) Available: FTP: census.gov/pub/population/estimates/place File: sc94flil.zip.

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Table 3. City Population Change by Distance from Large Metro Center1

	Population		Pct. with Incr. Pop.	Pct. with Deer. Pop.
Characteristic	1990	1994	1990-94	1990-94	n
Places .. .
10 miles or less from a Large Metro Center	1,912,279	1,987,381	74.4	25.0	172
10 to 20 miles from a Large Metro Center	447,294	474,190	71.6	27.2	261
20 to 30 miles from a Large Metro Center	344,846	357,966	63.5	35.6	233

'Large metro centers are municipalities with population of 25,000 or more.

Source: 1994 Place Estimates. [Population Estimates Branch of the Census] (Online) Available: FTP: census.gov/pub/population/estimates/ place File: sc94flil.zip. within 10 miles of cities larger than 25,000. Of these 74.4 percent gained population in the 1990s. There are 261 cities between 10 and 20 miles of the larger centers and 71.6 percent had population increases. The differences between these two probabilities are relatively minor. However, the probability of an increase for cities between 20 and 30 miles of a city larger than 25,000 falls to 63.5 percent for the 233 communities.

The rationale for these differences is that the growth or expansion in the urban center spills out to the surrounding area and the effects decline with distance from the economic center. Residents are unwilling to commute more than a certain distance to work in a larger city. Likewise, people desire certain city services and may want to live within easy communting distance of a larger center. In this study, 20 miles are an important criterion with a substantial drop-off in the probability of a population increase beyond that distance. A more detailed examination of cities, by size, at various distances from an urban center confirm that, in most instances, the probability of a population increase declines after 20 miles. Of course, factors other than proximity to a large center affect the probability of population change also.

Summary and Conclusions
Based on preliminary Census estimates, the 1990s should be better for Illinois cities than the previous decade. There is evidence that cities of all size groups have a high probability of population growth and, most likely, these population increases are accompanied by economic expansion of some type. The restructuring of the state economy from manufacturing to greater dependence on services suggests that some of the expansion, however, may not be at previous wage levels. The effect is that the income stream in communities may not increase as rapidly as if the replacement jobs were in manufacturing, for instance.

Nevertheless, it is encouraging that the population expansion seems to pervade virtually all economic bases, except those in areas heavily dependent on mining. Cities in close proximity to metro centers of 25,000 and larger had a higher probability of a population increase than did cities 30 miles away.

These figures suggest to mayors, managers, and other local policy makers that substantial benefits accrue from relatively close proximity to larger urban centers. Participation in regional economic expansion programs can benefit all involved and smaller, outlying communities may wish to be aggressively involved in these programs.

Aside from the obvious fact that population increases mean more revenues from Motor Fuel Tax and the Illinois Income Tax rebates, there also are opportunities to design better futures for even relatively small communities. Cities with strong local economic development initiatives and effective strategic planning or visioning processes can revitalize their employment base or retail sectors.

Many examples exist of small communities which have made major advances in taking charge of their future. Nearly 40 cities across Illinois have participated in the MAPPING Future of Your Community to set a vision of where they want to be and have created action plans to reach their objectives. Ten counties participated in a program sponsored by Rural Partners in which they developed strategic plans. The Illinois Department of Commerce & Community Affairs works with communities to carry out local efforts through the Competitive Communities Initiatives. Numerous additional small towns have active economic development efforts underway to create economic expansion. At the very least, there are signs that many Illinois cities are experiencing a population reversal in this decade. Given the interest in increasing need for high quality housing in many small communities, that trend seems to be well underway. •

January 1996 / Illinois Municipal Review / Page 15