POLITICS

It's lights, camera,
action on Campaign '98

by Charles N. Wheeler III

Suspense! Intrigue! Dangerous allies and daunting challenges! True believers and prominent defectors! Old favorites and new stars! Heroic efforts against overwhelming odds! A cast of thousands! An eight-figure budget!

No, that's not hyperbole from some coming Steven Spielberg mega- production. Instead, it's a teaser for the new year's biggest extravaganza, Campaign '98. But political junkies should be excused if they feel like Siskel and Ebert at a never-ending showing of Oscar-winning films. The coming year promises enough captivating characters and fascinating plot twists to satisfy the most demanding critic, with the final scenes scripted by Illinois voters at the polls on November 3.

Here are a few of the story lines that bear watching along the way:

• The Senate quest. National GOP strategists consider U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun the Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent in 1998. Her odds of survival should be helped, though, by what figures to be a bloody Republican primary between Comptroller Loleta Didrickson and state Sen. Peter Fitzgerald.

Didrickson has the backing of a Who's Who of the GOP establishment — most of whom begged, pleaded and cajoled her to make the run — while Fitzgerald counts on strong support from grass-root, conservative activists and has the personal wealth to cover the campaign's financial demands.

The coming year promises enough captivating characters and fascinating plot twists to satisfy the most demanding critic, with the final scenes scripted by Illinois voters.

If the plot sounds familiar, it should. It could be a rerun of 1996, when then- state Rep. Al Salvi used deep pockets and zealous right-wingers to snatch the U.S. Senate nomination from Lt. Gov. Bob Kustra — the party poobahs' choice — only to lose the general election after being painted an extremist.

Should Fitzgerald win, would he be able to avoid a "son of Salvi" label? If Didrickson claims the nomination, could she energize conservatives? And in either case, will Moseley-Braun be able to keep voters focused on her record on school repairs, environmental cleanup and ethanol? Or will the campaign be dominated by her well- publicized off-the-court miscues?

• The Mansion mission (impossible?). Intraparty warfare cost the last Democratic governor renomination almost 22 years ago. Since then, a Republicans-only sign has hung on the Executive Mansion.

In '98, Democrats again are divided, which could help Secretary of State George Ryan continue the GOP run. His opponent will come from among four primary contenders: former U.S. Atty. Jim Burns, former Atty. Gen. Roland Burns, U.S. Rep. Glenn Poshard or former Justice Department official John Schmidt. Whoever wins, it's likely that anywhere from two-thirds to three-quarters of Democratic primary voters wanted someone else. And the survivor will have spent a lot of money that would have come in handy to repair the damage done by the losers' attacks.

Ryan, meanwhile, can field-test his campaign operation in the primary and keep building his $2-million-plus war chest.

• The never-ending story ... ends. For the first time in the last half-century, the name of Sidney R. Yates won't be on the ballot. The 88-year-old Chicago congressman's decision to retire has triggered a three-way contest for the Democratic nomination that is tantamount to election in his North Side, North Shore, 9th District. Contending are state Sen. Howard Carroll of Chicago (6 when Yates was first elected), state Rep. Jan Schakowsky of Evanston (4 at the time) and financier and hotel heir J.B. Pritzker (born during Yates' eighth term).

Contested primaries are underway in two other districts with open seats: the suburban 13th, where a half dozen hopefuls are seeking the Republican nomination that should allow the winner to succeed U.S. Rep. Harris Fawell, and the downstate 19th, where both parties have contested primaries for Poshard's spot.

Together, Fawell and Poshard will have served 12 terms when they leave, exactly half of Yates' 24-term mark.

• The celebrity convert, or Demi Moore meets Troma Studios. Can a lifelong Democrat find happiness — and even elective office in Cook County — as a born-again Republican? Cook

42 / January 1998 Illinois Issues

County Circuit Court Clerk Aurelia Pucinski certainly hopes so. Pucinski, a perennial million-plus vote-getter as a Democrat, switched allegiance to run for Cook County Board president, a post no Republican has held in 28 years.

Pucinski's move lends credibility to a Cook County Republican organization that gets less respect — deservedly so — than Rodney Dangerfield. It also guarantees her a spot on the November ballot against either incumbent John Stroger, who bested her in the Democratic primary in 1994, or Stroger's Democratic challenger, county Commissioner Cal Sutker. But it might also be a one-way ticket to has-been status, if her popularity, especially among ethnic voters, is not enough to overcome the county GOP'S losing ways.

For legislative watchers, the contests for 40 Senate seats and all 118 House seats are the main attraction. The key battleground is once again likely to be the south suburbs.

• The struggle for the gavel. For legislative watchers, the contests for 40 Senate seats and all 118 House seats present Campaign '98's main attraction. Republicans hold a narrow 31-28 edge in the Senate, while Democrats have an even slimmer margin, 60-58, in the House.

The November matchups include a rerun of the most expensive legislative race in state history, won by Sen. David Luechtefeld, an Okawville Republican, by 127 votes over Democrat Barb Brown of Chester in the southern Illinois 58th District. The pair spent almost $1.4 million between them, most coming from party leaders. Who'll win the second time around is anyone's guess, but it's a good bet the price tag will climb.

The key House battleground is once again likely to be the south suburbs, where voters have been ousting incumbents with regularity since 1992, in the process switching the House majority from Democrat to Republican and back again.

With coming attractions like these, see you at Campaign '98!

Charles N. Wheeler III is director of the Public Affairs Reporting program at the University of Illinois at Springfield.

Illinois Issues January 1998 / 43