POLITICS
Conventional wisdom is no longer by Charles N. Wheeler III When Glenn Poshard announced, his chances were all but dismissed. But he rode a tidal wave of downstate support to swamp three serious Democratic rivals. From the moment Secretary of State George H. Ryan declared his intentions last summer, conventional wisdom figured the Executive Mansion was his to lose. After all, the pundits reasoned, Ryan is an astute veteran who has built a potent campaign organization and forged friendships across partisan lines during more than a quarter century of public service. He enjoys great name recognition and has earned high marks for his efforts to curb drunk driving, boost adult literacy and spur organ donations. And winning the GOP nomination, they argued, should be just a formality for Ryan, allowing him to husband a sizable campaign war chest to battle a Democratic nominee who had to survive a bitter, expensive primary. That scenario, sketched so confidently last September, now seems a lot less compelling, thanks to the surprisingly strong primary showing of U.S. Rep. Glenn W. Poshard, who earned the Democratic nomination to face Ryan. When Poshard announced for governor — even before Gov. Jim Edgar decided not to seek a third term — his chances were all but dismissed. How could a virtual unknown from deep Southern Illinois — a pro-life, pro-gun rights advocate to boot — hope to win a Democratic primary sure to be dominated by liberal-leaning voters from Chicago and the suburbs? Especially when he has promised to accept no more than $2,000 from individual donors and nothing from businesses or PACs? Such early doubts were more than answered on March 17, when Poshard rode a tidal wave of downstate support to swamp three serious rivals and win the party nomination. As expected, Poshard didn't fare well in Chicago, garnering less than 20 percent of the vote, even with the backing of such ward heavyweights as U.S. Rep. William 0. Lipinski and House Speaker Michael J. Madigan. Almost half of the city vote went to former Attorney General Roland W. Burris, while former Justice Department official John R. Schmidt pulled a quarter. In the suburbs, Schmidt won almost 40 percent of the vote, while Poshard and Burris each got 26 percent. Thus, coming out of the six- county Chicago area, Poshard trailed Burris by about 105,000 votes and Schmidt by some 58,000. But those shortfalls were swallowed easily by the amazing pluralities Poshard piled up in the state's other 96 counties. The Marion congressman outpolled Burris and Schmidt by about 180,000 each en route to winning some 71 percent of the vote downstate. In dozens of counties, the numbers were absolutely staggering. In the state's 32 southernmost counties, for example, Poshard collected nine out of every 10 Democratic ballots cast; in his home county of Williamson, he piled up almost 12,000 votes to Schmidt's 202 and Burris' 173. Former U.S. Attorney Jim Burns tallied 88 in that county on his way to a distant fourth-place finish statewide. Poshard's nomination should dispel any hint of complacency in the Ryan camp, if any ever existed. The congressman appears to be the strongest candidate Democrats have put up in a generation. If nothing else, he is the first in 20 years who's not a Chicago lawyer, thus precluding the standard Republican city-bashing. Indeed, his roots lie some 270 miles farther south of Chicago than Kankakee native Ryan's. Nor will GOP strategists have an easy time portraying Poshard as a wild-eyed liberal; on such hot-button issues as abortion rights and gun control, Ryan and Poshard are remarkably close. Poshard's right-to-life convictions could appeal to so-called Reagan Democrats, bringing some social conservatives back into the party fold. At the same time, Poshard has a strong pro-labor voting record, lessening Ryan's chances of picking up significant union support. While the Democratic chieftains and their foot soldiers backing Poshard delivered on primary day, the Republican hierarchy's choices took it on the chin. Ryan faced only token opposition in former airline pilot Chad Koppie, who still got 14 percent of the vote, but the party leaders' favorites were drubbed in other statewide races. 38 / April 1998 Illinois Issues State Sen. Peter G. Fitzgerald spent some $7 million to claim the U.S. Senate nomination over state Comptroller Loleta Didrickson, who ran only after much cajoling from Ryan, Edgar and other key party figures. Others who lost despite prominent endorsements were House Deputy Minority Leader Robert W. Churchill, beaten by former state Rep. Al Salvi for the secretary of state bid, and East Dundee businessman Harry Seigle, who lost the nomination for comptroller to state Sen. Chris Lauzen. Repairing lingering rifts within GOP ranks will be a key concern for Ryan, who needs a better showing by party leaders and precinct workers in November. Poshard, too, has some converts to make, particularly in Chicago's minority community and in liberal circles, two voting blocs critical to his So perhaps it's time to update last year's forecast and give Democrats a real chance to end the GOP'S 22-year lease on the Executive Mansion. November chances. The congressman could be helped by the Democratic ticket, which includes two African Americans, U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley- Braun and secretary of state nominee Jesse White. Both could benefit from Poshard's support downstate as much as he will need their help in Chicago. And the Democrat nominee is hoping his strong record on women's issues in general will win over abortion rights Democrats like the angry feminists who denounced U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin for endorsing him over the pro-choice Schmidt. While Poshard currently can't match the $4.7 million Ryan has squirreled away for the general election, the Democrat's self-imposed contribution limits may not pinch too tightly, as long as he remains willing to accept $25,000, donations from other candidates and unlimited help from independent sources like the AFL-CIO. So perhaps it's time to update last year's forecast of another ho-hummer, a la 1994, and give Democrats a real chance to end the GOP'S 22-year lease on the Executive Mansion. Charles N. Wheeler III is director of the Public Affairs Reporting program at the University of Illinois at Springfield. Illinois Issues April 1998/ 39 |
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