POLITICS
Is this governor's race over
before the traditional starting date?
by Charles N. Wheeler III
In bygone times, Labor Day marked the end of summer. Straw hats and white shoes were put away, kids went back to school and political campaigns began in earnest.
Nowadays, of course, much of that has changed. Most schools start in late August, and the old-fashioned rules have all but disappeared. Has anyone even seen a skimmer this summer?
Even more dated is the notion of Labor Day as the start of the campaign season, unless one is referring to the holiday the year before the election. Now, it seems as though one election is scarcely tallied before the next campaign is underway.
Indeed, as Labor Day 1998 approaches, Democrats can't be blamed for wondering if the governor's race may be slipping away from U.S. Rep. Glenn W. Poshard even before the traditional starting date.
Consider the worrisome signs:
• Poshard so far has been unable to unite some of the Democratic Party's core groups behind his candidacy.
Lakefront liberals decry the socially conservative voting record Poshard compiled during his five terms in Congress representing a district running from Decatur to the Ohio River. Gun control supporters don't like his votes against a federal ban on assault weapons and a five-day waiting period for gun buyers. Pro-choice advocates don't like his belief that abortions should be legal only if the woman's life is at stake. Gay activists say they can't support someone who doesn't back a comprehensive ban on discrimination based on sexual orientation.
Moreover, U.S. Rep Jesse L. Jackson Jr., his father, Rev. Jesse L. Jackson, and a group of south suburban Democratic mayors are on the outs with Poshard over a regional airport in Peotone, which they see as an engine for economic growth in their area. Aware of Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley's fierce opposition, Poshard at first opposed the plan, although he now says he'll study it.
• Poshard's campaign funds are dwarfed by the enormous war chest of his Republican opponent, Secretary of State George H. Ryan. Campaign finance reports filed at the end of July showed Ryan with some $4.9 million on hand, while Poshard reported less than $500,000 in the bank, almost a 10-to-1 advantage for Ryan. In the first six months of 1998, Ryan outspent Poshard more than 2-to-1, even though he had only token primary opposition while Poshard was embroiled in a four-way battle.
Contributing to Ryan's money advantage are Poshard's self-imposed limits on fund-raising. The Democrat won't take money from political action committees (PACs) or corporations and will accept no more than $4,000 from individual donors and $50,000 from other politicians' campaigns. And his estrangement from liberals has cost him financial support from some traditional Democratic sources.
• The financial edge has allowed Ryan to blanket the airwaves with ads portraying Poshard as an extremist on gun control and the environment, based on the Democrat's U.S. House record. Ryan strategists hope to emulate Gov. Jim Edgar's TV blitz of four years ago, which demonized Democrat Dawn Clark Netsch on crime and taxes, and paved the way for Edgar's landslide victory in November.
Poshard aides say his record reflects the wishes of his downstate constituents; a vote against the federal Clean Air Act, for example, was an effort to protect some 20,000 coal mining jobs in southern Illinois. Running statewide, Poshard also has modified some of his views. After visiting gunshot victims in Cook County Hospital, Poshard changed his mind and now supports an assault weapons ban.
But neither the responses - nor Poshard's counterattacks criticizing Ryan's fund-raising practices - have been aired on the same scale as the Republican's offensive, an indication of the difference deep pockets can make.
While the outlook seems gloomy, there are possibilities that brighten the picture for the Democrat. Among them:
• Poshard's solid base in southern and central Illinois could propel him to the best showing downstate in years by a Democratic candidate for governor. In the March primary, Poshard
46 | September 1998 Illinois Issues
won 71 percent of the Democratic vote in the 96 downstate counties, including about 90 percent in the state's 32 southernmost counties. Of course, downstate cast only 42 percent of the total vote for governor in 1990 and 1994 - the other 58 percent came from Cook and the collar counties - but a downstate plurality could mean a Democratic victory.
• Poshard's cause may be helped in suburbia if anti-tax crusader James L. Tobin, running for governor as the candidate of the Libertarian Party, survives a challenge to his nominating petitions. Votes for Tobin are likely to come at Ryan's expense.
• Poshard would get a welcome boost if liberal Democrats decide to practice the tolerance for disparate views that they're always exhorting in others. Indeed, the candidate himself reminded his party's left wing of his unstinting support for the parade of liberals who've lost the last six gubernatorial elections. If nothing else, liberals might weigh whether their long-term agenda would be better served by a Democrat or a Republican in the governor's office in 2001, when it's time to redraw legislative districts.
• All-out support from organized labor will help Poshard combat Ryan's fund-raising advantage. The state AFL-CIO plans to spend more than $1 million to boost its endorsed candidates in November, a hefty chunk of it to urge union members to vote for Poshard, who's compiled an 89 percent labor voting record in Congress.
• After 22 years, voters simply may decide they don't want to renew the GOP lease on the Executive Mansion for another four years.
Renowned philosopher Lawrence P. Berra once said, "It ain't over 'til it's over." Poshard and his fellow Democrats have two months to prove that Yogi's insight holds true for the 1998 campaign for governor.
Charles N. Wheeler III is director of the Public Affairs Reporting program at the University of Illinois at Springfield.
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