By RICHARD McKENZIE
Director of Career Services at Sangamon State University, he has been involved with career planning and student employment for over 12 years in Illinois, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. He was in education public relations for two years in Pennsylvania.

Future educational emphasis seen on community colleges, experiential learning, mobility

Bleak job market for college grads created by high unemployment

ASSESSING the employment market in Illinois is a quixotic task. More evasive than any windmill is the information needed to make even a provisional guess as to the true conditions for persons aspiring to "professional" and blue collar occupations. What is happening to college graduates? Does it take a B.A. or B.S. to be assured of satisfactory employment opportunities? Are there any guarantees?

In late spring, there was a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the United States of 8.7 per cent and in Illinois of 8.0 per cent. This translates from statistics to people as 381,200 men and women seeking a way to earn a living in Illinois, 8 million in the nation. This is nearly twice the number of unemployed one year ago when the Illinois percentage was 4.2 out of work as against a national rate of 5.2 per cent. Predictions are that there will be even greater unemployment in spite of some signs of gradually improving business conditions.

Inconclusive statistics
However, these figures are deceptive. They are arrived at after various adjustments are made, and they are an estimate, an educated guess at best. Nationally, they exclude an estimated 3.9 million part-time workers who would prefer full-time work and over 1.1 million "discouraged" persons who no longer count as job seekers and who are now a permanent part of the social welfare system. The unemployment rate among Blacks has consistently averaged double the rate for whites for nearly two decades, 12.8 per cent versus 6.4 per cent in December 1974, for example. And adult women and teenagers fare worse than adult men.

Although the "official" figure in late spring for unemployment, nationally, among professional and technical managers and administrators was under 3.0 per cent, an estimated 6.0 per cent of all college graduates between ages 20 and 24 were out of work. A sample of estimates of the career and placement offices of the various state universities in Illinois put unemployment of recent graduates at between 12.0 and 16.0 per cent. It may get worse.

Although early indications at several universities were for a decent on campus recruiting season, most Illinois schools experienced a sudden surge of cancellations by recruiters in late April leaving the picture rather bleak. Among contributing factors was the teacher surplus and the freeze placed on state government hiring by Gov. Dan Walker last year.

No figures are collected on occupational levels in Illinois, according to the Illinois Bureau of Employment Security. Wisconsin, Minnesota and Indiana are funded for this data collection but not Illinois. In spite of the paucity of information on employment and unemployment in Illinois, it is still a safe assumption that a young person is better off with a college education than without one. This will no doubt continue to be true although less clearly than during the decade of economic growth in the 1960's. With certain exceptions, notably medicine and some areas of engineering and technology, it will be difficult for students anywhere to choose an academic program that will assure them of a job four years later when they graduate.

This uncertainty, coupled with a rising tide of resistance to more and more spending on education in general and higher education in particular, will have some predictable impacts on the Illinois education system. The community colleges will continue to receive a favorable share of the state education dollar because they are viewed as more responsive to public needs. More students will seek employment while attending college, and this employment may provide entree to career employment either with that employer or in a related field. This will be particularly important for the student whose academic interests lie with the liberal arts. Predictions indicate that over 50 per cent of new graduates will come from the liberal arts area in the next five years, although industry projects filling fewer than 10.0 per cent of its vacancies with B.A.'s. To make matters worse, teaching, social work and government opportunities will continue to shrink. There will be an increase in the importance placed on career counseling and planning at all levels, but particularly at the college level. Programs of experiential learning, which give students an opportunity to test their vocational and educational choices in a realistic setting, will continue to expand.

'Second-time around' programs
In addition, the trend toward greater career mobility which has been predicted for some years by the futurists, will accelerate as people realize the vulnerability of being locked into a narrow career field. This will contribute to an increased interest in extension and adult education programs and "second-time-around" programs for people, especially women, seeking to enter or re-enter the job market.

One fact is abundantly clear. A college degree—whether it be B.A., M.A. or the highly vaunted Ph.D.—will not be of and by itself a guarantee of employment security in the foreseeable future. The good jobs, of course, will still go to the ablest, those with the best education and experience. But a sluggish economy and an increasing proportion of college graduates in the population means that in the foreseeable future—especially this year—a larger number of graduates will have to seek and accept employment at a level below their aspirations and abilities. 

August 1975/Illinois Issues/237