IT IS generally conceded in this highly political town that Illinois Gov. James R. Thompson has his sights set on the 1980 Republican presidential nomination. He has a number of advantages if and when he decides to make a run for the nation's highest office: youth, good looks, a flair for publicity and reputation as a tough prosecutor with no tolerance for official shenanigans. He also has an instant platform as governor of the largest GOP-led constituency in the nation. Next year's gubernatorial race won't hurt either, especially if he is reelected by a substantial margin.

But overriding all these advantages is one big negative factor which can certainly cripple, and possibly kill, Thompson's chances for the nomination. It's called the Republican party. The national GOP presents both ideological and political obstacles to Thompson's quest. The ideological problem is that in national politics, and national Republican politics, Thompson is considered a moderate-to-liberal figure. The mainstream of the GOP these days is conservative in both national and Republican terms.

The tilt of the GOP is such that Republican national chairman Bill Brock, formerly a conservative Tennessee senator, is being attacked by some GOP right-wing partisans as being too liberal. Brock dared to suggest that the GOP make overtures to two dissatisfied pro-Democratic minority groups, Jews and blacks. But when he called for opening up the party to their participation, the right-wing purists howled.

If the ideological right, led by former California Gov. Ronald Reagan, North Carolina Sen. Jesse Helms and direct mail specialist Richard Viguerie, objected to Brock's mild moves, they can easily be expected to do their best against the moderate Thompson. They will have a fat bankroll to work with thanks to Viguerie, whose sophisticated and extensive direct mail operation taps the funds of all those proverbial "little old ladies in tennis shoes" and their more affluent allies who support conservative causes.

The political roadblock to Thompson is the delegate apportionment for the 1980 Republican national convention. The delegate ratios will be heavily influenced by Gerald R. Ford's 1976 sweep of every state west of the Missouri-Kansas border, except for Texas and Hawaii.

Under the GOP's plans, bonus delegates were awarded to all states Ford carried, including Illinois. That bonus plus the bonus for GOP state and local victories during the next three years and the planned cut of 301 in the total number of delegates will all strengthen those regions — the West and the Plains states — which Ford carried.

The 1980 convention will unite the political and ideological opposition to Thompson. The states Ford carried in the Midwest and West were also the bastions of Reagan's 1976 challenge to Ford. This bloc includes states like California, Arizona, Montana, Oklahoma and Utah. These five states gave Reagan a 270-2 delegate margin over Ford in 1976, and all are still solidly controlled by the conservative wing of the GOP. These five also show a net loss of one delegate in 1980, and Thompson will find delegate-hunting difficult in states so inhospitable to the conservative Ford.

In contrast, Ford delegate strongholds in 1976 will suffer substantial delegate losses in 1980. New York, which Ford carried over Reagan 133-20, loses 31 delegates alone. Five other pro-Ford states, Florida, Maryland, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania, will lose a total of 82 delegates. Carter carried these five states in the 1976 general election.

Illinois will not lose any delegates in 1980 and may pick up quite a few because of the 1978 election. But Thompson's strength as Illinois' favorite son may not balance difficult conditions he may encounter in Florida and New York. Former Vice President Nelson Rockefeller's withdrawal from party control in New York has left the Empire State GOP in the hands of conservative state legislator Perry Duryea and former Lt. Gov. Malcolm Wilson. Both prefer conservatives who show promise of winning rather than moderates such as Thompson. In Florida, Thompson will not have the advantage of Reagan's comments about social security and returning revenue to local governments. Ford used Reagan's remarks to good advantage in 1976, wooing Florida's elderly by stating that Reagan's commitment to social security was questionable. The Florida GOP, led by U.S. Rep. Lou Frey, is a very conservative party. Thompson's moderate politics leaves Frey and his followers uncomfortable; Ford's conservatism did not.

Finally, Thompson's Florida party problems resemble those he will have with other "swing" delegations scattered around the nation. In states like Arkansas, North Carolina, Mississippi, Kentucky and Tennessee, party leaders and rank-and-file members felt comfortable enough with Ford to give him a substantial minority of the delegates. But in all these states, Ford, a mainline GOP conservative, had to use all the powers and the prestige of the presidency to win delegates. Thompson, for all his protestations, is not conservative enough for these swing states, and he is not president. Though these five states will drop from 191 to 135 delegates due to Carter's southern sweep, Thompson can count on practically none of them. 

January 1978/ Illinois Issues/ 35