Politics By ROBERT KIECKHEFER

Party balance in Statehouse benefits special interests

REPUBLICANS can be justly proud of the gains they made in the House and Senate in this year's election. And Gov. James R. Thompson can properly take some credit for helping the party achieve those new seats. But when the record of the new General Assembly is written, the big winners of the election may turn out to be the small, special- interest voting blocs.

With the party balance in each house close, any group that can muster even three or four votes will be able to command attention next session. Especially in the House, where the Democrats' margin of control appears to be a single seat, the majority party no longer .will be able to rely on an automatic majority vote. And that consideration Opens the door to a lot of possibilities.

The outgoing legislature already has seen serious erosion of party discipline. The full potential of a rump revolt, though, did not become evident until late in the spring session this year when the House Black Caucus, miffed that they were being taken for granted,refused to vote for the proposed Equal Rights Amendment. Without their votes, the issue went down to another defeat.

Past party splits

Going back farther into legislative history, close party splits often have brought revolts, deals, horsetrading and Uneasy, shifting alliances. Paul Powell - "Mister Democrat" — served one of his terms as speaker of the House despite a GOP majority. Cecil A. Partee had to make concessions to the "Crazy Eight" independent Democrats four years ago before they would give him the votes he needed to be elected Senate president. And it took Republican votes — notably those of the remnants of the West Side Bloc — to elect William A. Redmond speaker during his marathon battle with Clyde L. Choate.

The current divisions might again spell difficulty when the House and Senate convene and try to pick leaders. Although Democrats managed to hang onto a respectable majority in the Senate, their leader, Sen. Thomas C. Hynes (D., Chicago), left his office to run, successfully, for Cook County assessor. Even before all the votes were tallied, there were three factions involved in the race for his position.

The front-runner, Sen. Philip J. Rock (D., Oak Park), apparently has the support of the Chicago organization. The downstaters, however, are pushing Sen. James H. Donnewald (D., Breese), who seems to have the support of Secy. of State AlanJ. Dixon. And the name of Sen. Don Wooten (D., Rock Island), one of the remaining "Crazy Eight" members, also has been mentioned.

Each bloc has a strong stake in control of the Senate. The Chicago organization feels since Redmond, a nominal downstater, is on the rostrum in the House, they should wield the gavel in the Senate. The downstaters might be looking for revenge for the rough treatment they — and particularly Dixon — got in last year's slatemaking. And the independents, though unlikely to elect one of their own number under any combination of circumstances, will want real concessions from whichever candidate eventually gets their votes.

On form. Senate Republicans might have to settle the presidency unless a surprising unifying factor emerges in the Democratic caucus.

In the House, with a one-vote margin, anything and everything could happen. With Powell's minority election in 1961, W. Robert Blair's neat doublecross of Henry Hyde in 1973 and the West Side Bloc's decisive support in 1975 for Redmond firmly in mind, let's consider some scenarios.

One possibility is that Democrats fear they might lose the Senate gavel. If that's the case, they might stall the House leadership selection until they see the outcome across the rotunda. Then Chicagoan Michael J. Madigan, currently House majority leader, might be pushed to the front of the ticket.

Or, any one of the little blocs within the Democratic party might decide to withhold its votes from the caucus candidate, making it impossible for the Democrats to elect any candidate without GOP votes. That scenario would give the probable House GOP leader, George H. Ryan of Kankakee, a powerful hand. It's not likely he'd play ball without agreement to some concessions later on.

Possible deals

Here's a variation on that theme:
Thompson convinces a few friendly Democrats to force the situation outlined above. Ryan, a Thompson ally, then extracts Democrat votes for Thompson's beloved tax-limitation program as the price for election of the chosen candidate for speaker.

Or how about this: Ryan lines up a couple Democrats willing to vote for him and cops a surprise, first-ballot victory while Democrats are eyeing each other warily. Unlikely? Sure. Impossible? Listen — when it comes to the Illinois General Assembly, nothing is impossible.

Whatever the results of the leadership fights, though, you can bet each special interest wilJI be throwing around its new found importance in an effort to further its cause.

The suburbanites and collar county denizens, for instance, think they have a

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real chance this session to get some changes in the Regional Transportation Authority (RTA). They won't abolish it or win the right for counties to withdraw. But, if their votes become crucial on some other big issue, they might trade for a bill requiring a graduated gas tax in the RTA service area, so areas with less service pay less tax.

ERA supporters will be looking for votes, too. With leadership changing in the Senate, supporters of the amendment — if they're awake — might demand that the candidate they support rule a majority vote — rather than the current three-fifths — is sufficient for ratification.

Thompson's tax plan will be another log ready for rolling. Don't be shocked to see some GOP votes going on an RTA modification — or even onto ERA — in return for a tax package which Thompson could showcase in New Hampshire.

Will the logs roll?

And those are just the big bills. For every one of those, there are scores of local and special-interest measures that will pass as part of logrolling — all because neither party has the majority to work its will on the big issues.

It's going to be an interesting session, isn't it?

Isn't it always? 

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