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First it was on -- now it may be two Illinois seats lost in the U.S. House By Mark Gruenberg

MIDWAY through the 1970's, the Census Bureau let Illinois know that current population projections showed the state would lose one congressional seat after the 1980 census. But nobody in the state delegation worried too much about it.

They're worrying now, though. New population projections indicate that Illinois will lose two seats in 1980 (for an explanation of how redistricting works, see the February 1979 magazine).

Losing two seats will present a host of problems for the Illinois General Assembly, according to several members of the delegation who formerly served in Springfield. All of the members interviewed held out the hope that fortuitous retirements by some of the members of the state delegation here would ease the problem.

Familiar with fights

Of the current 24 representatives Illinois sends to Washington, 11 are familiar with the horse-trading, wrangling and bitterness which have accompanied the legislature's U.S. House redistricting fights since 1960. They are Reps. George O'Brien, Abner Mikva, Paul Simon, John Fary, Robert McClory, Edward Derwinski, Henry Hyde (a former Illinois House majority leader), Dan Rostenkowski, John Erlenborn, Tom Railsback and Ed Madigan. Rep. Tom Corcoran is also familiar with redistricting battles from his days as an aide to former state Sen. W. Russell Arrington (R. Evanston).

Universal consternation was expressed over the two-seat loss. "It's going to be rough, but I hope it doesn't wind up in the courts again," Erlenborn said. Both of the last two redistricting efforts wound up in court.

"That comes as a real blow to us, losing those two seats," Rostenkowski said. He held out hope that the situation -- at least as far as Chicago's lost seat goes -- could be resolved by the retirement of Sidney Yates or John Fary or Frank Annunzio. Rostenkowski himself, along with Cook County Board President George Dunne and Chicago Mayor Jane Byrne, may have a lot to say about which one of the three goes.

Simon called the situation "very interesting." He added that an amalgamated district downstate is likely. Along with everyone else interviewed from both parties, he said the prime downstate candidate for retirement is Rep. Mel Price (D., East St. Louis).

In looking at raw vote totals, Erlenborn wonders whether both seats should come out of Chicago. Numerically and politically, such a solution is almost impossible. The Democratic party would challenge such a map, and the courts would almost surely reject it.

Hyde is worried about a long, drawn out fight in an evenly split legislature which could land the whole problem in the lap of the courts again. "Chicago loses one seat," Hyde said, "and it's up to Rostenkowski to decide who goes. It does seem reasonable though that the last guy in -- whoever replaces Mikva when he goes to the bench --would have the least claim to survival."

Hyde worries that Chicago intransigence could bottle things up. "Jane Byrne seems to have a gather-the-wagons-in-a-circle attitude," he claimed. "The Chicago people may try to scoop out people from the suburbs while still leaving the districts in their hands."

He also cautions that loss of two seats would not prevent ambitious state legislators from trying to carve out favorable districts for themselves "And don't count out other fringe factors, such as whether Anderson and Phil Crane file for the House again," even while they eye the GOP presidential nod.

Hyde's comment about fringe factors highlights one other problem: All the members of both parties interviewed mentioned only possible Democratic retirees, with the most frequent names being those of Yates and Price. "The ideal situation would be an agreement between legislative leaders" which would take one seat from each party, according to Hyde.

Finding retirees

But finding possible GOP retirees in the delegation is another matter. The oldest GOP member, Rep. Robert McClory, represents one of the fastest growing areas in the state, "but he shows no signs of retiring and is vigorous as hell," Hyde added.

Rostenkowski, citing past occurrences, said Chicago may not be intransigent, as Hyde fears. Chicago has learned its lesson, Rostenkowski said and will not be stubborn this time around. "I think that without the sometimes stubbornness of Mayor Daley we could have settled our differences before," he said. "Had he agreed to a map on one occasion that I know of [1970], we would have been better off. The GOP court ratified what the GOP Assembly did."

Commenting on the situation in the state legislature, Rostenkowski said, "I don't think we're going to have a single leader this time; the governor will go along with the legislative leaders. Our problems were always in the 'battleground' districts, but they [the battleground districts] won't be there."

Hyde agrees, saying that the legislative leaders are all "reasonable men. They'll try to reach an accommodation because of the possibilities of a court map." Those "possibilities" were summarized by one staffer: the courts "would let fairness and equality in, and neither side wants that."

June 1979 / Illinois Issues / 32