Chicago
By ED McMANUS

Suburbs crucial to Richie's rise

IF JANE BYRNE didn't realize she was in serious political trouble long before the primary election, she certainly must know it now.

Teddy Kennedy lost, the Democratic machine candidate for the Supreme Court lost, machine candidates in two congressional races lost in the black community, and several incumbent committeemen were defeated. But most important of all, her candidate for Cook County state's attorney was smothered by a man who obviously wants her job — Richard M. Daley.

Ironically, whether he gets it may depend a great deal on suburbanites. If he can obtain enough of their votes to win election as state's attorney in November, the son of the late mayor surely will challenge Byrne when her term expires in 1983.

If the election were held today and it was a two-person contest, it appears Daley would beat her with ease.

Only a year ago, Byrne whipped the machine, took control of it and had the world in her hands. But the Daley family didn't want to give up that easily, and Byrne's style has alienated large numbers of voters, including many of her own backers.

When somebody like independent Sen. Dawn Clark Netsch comes out for Daley, it says something about the erosion of Byrne's support.

Daley reportedly had considered running for clerk of the circuit court, a patronage-rich position, but decided instead to go for state's attorney, a job which will give him a lot of media exposure and which is now held by a Republican (Bernard Carey).

After Daley announced he was running for state's attorney, Byrne immediately began scrambling for a candidate and came up with, of all people, Ald. Edward Burke, one of her chief antagonists before her election. (She had described Burke, along with Mayor Michael Bilandic, mayoral aide Thomas Donovan and Ald. Edward Vrdolyak as "a cabal of evil men.")

Burke was not well-known and was no match for Daley. The machine endorsed him but could not deliver. Daley profited from nostalgia for his father as well as anti-Byrne sentiment. Daley campaigned hard and made effective use of television.

One party leader said the morning after the election: "If only she had put her arms around him [in the fall] and said, 'Rich, you're my boy.' He wouldn't have had a primary fight, he would have been the organization candidate, and Carey would have beaten him easily in the fall."

By opposing him, Byrne gave Daley the issue he needed. A vote for Daley was a vote against Byrne and against the machine. Of course, now he is the Democratic party's candidate, and the machine will support him. Whether that helps him or hurts him in the general election remains to be seen. But a look at the last two state's attorney races gives some clues.

Carey was first elected in 1972, defeating incumbent Edward Hanrahan (who had beaten the machine candidate in the Democratic primary). Hanrahan carried the city by 70,000 votes, but Carey trounced him in the suburbs by 200,000 votes. In 1976, Democrat Edward Egan carried the city by an impressive 275,000 votes, but Carey won the suburbs by 325,000, and in that election, there were 140,001 more votes cast in Chicago than in the suburbs.

It is clear that Daley must win big in the city. But even more important, he must attract enough support in the suburbs to hold down Carey's margin there. In the primary Daley defeated Burke in every suburban township (as well as most of the city wards), but many of the suburbanites who voted for Daley in March may turn against him in November.

If Daley wins, he will be in great shape to run for mayor. Among other things, he could use his prosecutorial powers to make life miserable for the Byrne administration in the intervening years.

The key element in 1983 is likley to be how many candidates get into the mayor's race, it could be a four-way contest — Byrne, Daley, a black candidate, and somebody like Ald. Roman Pucinski who didn't like Byrne but also didn't want an 11th Ward Irishman back in City Hall. In a four-way battle, the winner would need only 26 percent of the vote.

32/June 1980/Illinois Issues