Roads before reapportionment on Thompson agenda

By DIANE ROSS

GOV. James R. Thompson's state-of-the-state-under-recession address may have answered the fiscal questions. But his unprecedented appearance November 19 before a lame duck session of the General Assembly only posed more political questions.

Big Jim's address was cloaked in the unmistakable trappings of executive power. Thompson's performance, from the media briefing before the speech, to the quarterly fiscal report attached to the text, to the speech itself, was hyped as the "Son of the Budget Message."

Why? Why an "extraordinary" address? Thompson said Illinois faced a "crossroads" not a "crisis." But his speech repeated the all-too-familiar refrain of Thompson's fiscal theme song: "Stormy Weather." (Not that Thompson's the first Illinois governor to sing it. Fiscal crises brought out the performer in Walker, Ogilvie, Shapiro, etc.)

Yet the practical explanation for Thompson's speech obviously centered on the legislative veto session at hand. If the General Assembly overrode all his vetoes, Thompson said, Illinois would be bankrupt by July. Thompson knew that was highly unlikely, but his point was that every dollar legislators spent was another dollar drained from a dangerously low reserve.

But what of the political motivation behind the governor's speech?

Thompson was well aware that legislators were already jockeying for leadership posts in the upcoming and crucial reapportionment session. It was his first post-election pronouncement and he wasn't about to waste any time in asserting his power. Waiting until March, when governors traditionally spell out their political priorities via their budgets, would be too late. Thompson told Democrats and Republicans that he intended to lead his party and set its priorities in 1981. And Thompson's No. 1 priority — beyond balancing the budget — remains roads.

"Crisis" is the word Thompson uses to describe the state's transportation program. Defusing that crisis is Thompson's best shot at the kind of "concrete achievement" for which he wants to be remembered. Four years into his administration, Thompson's principal achievement remains a balanced budget. Thanks to the inflation-driven recession, however, Thompson's "move ahead" $1 billion-a-year road program has "fallen behind" in the year since he pushed it through the General Assembly with the help of Chicago Mayor Jane Byrne. With no additional federal aid in sight, financing to rescue the roads must come by raising gasoline taxes and license plate fees — and from bonds. To sell those bonds, Thompson needs a good credit rating. To keep a good credit rating, he needs a strong reserve. Illinois has held onto its triple-A credit rating during the recession. Should the General Assembly fail to cooperate with Thompson's spending controls, however, the reserve drops, the credit rating slumps, the bond sales sag — and Thompson's claim to concrete achievement crumbles.

Perhaps the best clue to why Thompson picked that time and that place to deliver that speech surfaced in what Big Jim told reporters later. "I'm going to cling to the legislature like I've never clung to them before," Thompson said. But why should a Republican governor feel the need to "cling" to a Republican-dominated legislature? Thompson's good fiscal record with a Democratic legislature should only get better with the Republicans in control of the House and within one seat of controlling the Senate. A Republican- dominated General Assembly should only increase the already awesome control Thompson, as governor, has over the state's purse strings.

Does Big Jim expect trouble from his own party? His desire to push a new roads program through the legislature in early January, before the new 1981-1982 General Assembly is seated clearly shows he's afraid transportation will be lost — or compromised — in the ensuing shuffle of reapportionment deals. And reapportionment will be the issue in 1981. The passage of the so-called Cutback Amendment, which means legislators must redraw three not two, sets of maps, will only add to the confusion. Republicans, out of power for five long years, will be playing for 10-year stakes. They'll cut the best deal they can get.

With reapportionment the all-consuming issue, who will set the other priorities for Republicans in the General Assembly: Thompson or the new Republican speaker of the House? Thompson's priorities will remain with fiscal matters as long as the recession threatens to wipe out his reserve — and his reputation for controlling spending. House Republicans' priorities, however, may lie in the private sector — worker's compensation reform, tax incentives, unemployment insurance reform and the like.

The Democrats, who lost the House and hang onto the Senate by one seat will probably push for more tax relief since they may decide that Thompson's recession-proof reserve still amounts to a surplus. Surely the solvency of the Regional Transportation Authority— not to speak of Chicago's schools— will remain a Democratic priority. But the Democrats' No. 1 goal in 1981 will be to hold their ground under reapportionment.

As the 1981 legislative session opens, the Democrats are watching the Republicans and the Republicans are watching Thompson. Thompson's legislative priorities are tied to his political ambitions. The Republican party's priorities are tied to reapportionment The balance of power, not a balanced budget, will be the issue in 1981. Where will that put Thompson?

January 1981/Illinois Issues/2