Politics

By ROBERT KIECKHEFER

IN 1972, Michael J. Howlett surveyed the political landscape in Illinois and commented, "There is no coattails' effect in this state anymore."

The events of that year proved Howlett right. Richard M. Nixon, the Republican candidate for president, won the state easily — by 874,707 votes. And GOP Sen. Charles Percy obliterated his Democratic opponent by well over one million votes. But Gov. Richard B. Ogilvie, who needed "coattails' help" because of his sponsorship of the state's first income tax, didn't get it. He lost to Daniel Walker by a razor-edge margin, 77,494 votes.

Next year may be another test of the coattails' effect, although all concerned are trying to minimize that part of the 1982 political equation.

The key players will be Gov. James R. Thompson and his two major appointees — Secy. of State Jim Edgar and Atty. Gen. Tyrone Fahner. Thompson appointed Edgar to replace Alan J. Dixon after Dixon was elected to the U.S. Senate. And he tabbed Fahner after William J. Scott was convicted on federal income tax charges. Both Edgar and Fahner have worked closely with Thompson and were regarded as part of his inner circle. Thus, their appointments raised charges Thompson was trying to build a personal dynasty in state government.

When Rep. George Ryan then agreed to stay in the House and run for speaker rather than insist on having the secretary of state's job, talk increased about Thompson's influence. And when the governor intemperately meddled in the Senate president's race to put Republican David Shapiro on the podium, the talk turned to the govrnor's "Gang of Four."

Both Fahner and Edgar are pledged to run next year for full terms. The governor made them promise before he appointed them. So the question naturally arises: How much impact will their relationship with the governor have on Fahner and Edgar in next year's election?

They both deny they are counting on their mentor for major campaign help. "Jim Thompson's not going to elect me in 1982," Edgar said in an interview. "I don't expect him to turn his back on Ty Fahner and myself. But I've got to get myself elected in '82." "We're on our own," Fahner agreed.

Each has sought issues he could use to gain wider name recognition. Fahner picked open meetings — knowing it would be popular with the press — and Edgar worked on auto safety, including improvements in the state's drunk driving laws. Fahner ran into opposition from local politicians, and Edgar was hampered by a television probe of corruption in some of his drivers' license stations. But both appear to be on the way to developing good, if not outstanding, reputations as administrators and public officials.

But it's equally clear that each of them is relying on Thompson to be his "entree" into GOP society. Each, in fact, got sort of a debut from the governor when he entered statewide politics.

Fahner, noting he has been well-received by the GOP faithful in many counties, said Thompson telephoned "50 or 60 people before he appointed me. That has carried me a long way." And Edgar noted that when Thompson asked him to give up his Illinois House seat and join the administration, "He came to my district to explain why he wanted me to leave right after they had elected me."

When push comes to shove, it's obvious that Fahner and Edgar will be perceived by the voters as part of a Thompson "team". They will be joined, many feel, by a new, hand-picked candidate for lieutenant governor. And that would bring us back to a new "Gang of Four" — Thompson, Fahner, Edgar and a fourth player to be named later.

As an aside, there are those who feel the fourth player will be the same George Ryan who took on the thankless speaker's job this year when he really wanted to be secretary of state. The scenario has Edgar running for lieutenant governor while Ryan runs for secretary of state. Of course, everyone denies it. And Edgar said, "What it would take for me to run for lieutenant governor in 1982, I don't think anyone would offer me." On the other hand, if Thompson finally makes good on his ambition and runs successfully for national office in 1984, the lieutenant governor would become the state's chief executive.

For 1982 though, the extent of the challenge facing the Thompson team will depend in large measure on former House Speaker W. Robert Blair and former Cook County State's Attorney Bernard Carey.

Carey announced early in April that he will run against Fahner in the primary. He made no bones about his platform, saying it will be, "Blast Thompson."

The governor also made it clear he would regard a Carey challenge to Fahner as a personal challenge to himself. "I admit I am personally disappointed," the governor said after hearing of Carey's announcement.

A challenge by Blair might be even more interesting. Blair, who could run against either Fahner or Edgar, is one of the state's most experienced and, when he needs to be, ruthless politicians. Blair kept the House on a tight rein during his years in Springfield, leaving some formidable opponents, including now-Congressman Henry Hyde, floundering in his wake.

Blair does not like Thompson and has been biding his time since he lost his House seat, looking for a reentry into public life. His ambition was not blunted by his loss to Thompson-supported John Castle in the 1978 race for the GOP treasurer nomination.

If either Blair or Carey enters the fray, the voters may hear more about Thompson than they do about the actual candidates in the races for attorney general and secretary of state. If they both run, the battle would be ferocious. And if that happens, politicians from all over the country will be watching Thompson to see if he can disprove Howlett's comment of a decade ago. □

July 1981/Illinois Issues/35