By ROBERT KIECKHEFER

Forecast for Thompson's parade

THE ILLINOIS primary turned into a kind of "ThompsonFest."

Not only was Gov. James R. Thompson handily renominated for what would be an unprecedented third straight term, but his entire "slate" of candidates also won nomination — including one he didn't even actively support. As a fringe benefit, one of Thompson's least-favorite politicos — former House Speaker W. Robert Blair — lost again and almost certainly is out of statewide politics for good.

But, even as he savors his triumph, Thompson might be excused if he scans the skies for gathering storm clouds that might well rain on his November parade. There are, indeed, some disturbing signs on the horizon for "Big Jim."

One of the problems he's sure to face is his very success. Democrats from Galena to Cairo, from Quincy to Danville will be making a lot of noise about all the Thompson "cronies" and "lackeys" on the GOP state ticket. And, indeed, the ticket does seem bound together by the glue of friendship with the governor.

Secy, of State Jim Edgar and Atty. Gen. Tyrone Fahner, of course, are former Thompson aides who were appointed by the governor to the jobs they now hold. You can't get much closer than that. Thompson went way out on the limb to help Speaker George Ryan win the lieutenant governor's nomination over Rep. Susan Catania of Chicago and Sen. Don Totten of Hoffman Estates. And Peoria businessman John Dailey, who won an easy primary victory over Blair in the treasurer's race, has been a Thompson fund-raiser and supporter.

Of all the statewide candidates, only the candidate for comptroller, former Rep. Cal Skinner Jr. of Woodstock, is not linked directly to Thompson in one way or another.

The question for the voters to decide is whether all that "togetherness" is a good thing.

House Democratic Leader Michael Madigan argues it isn't — starting more than a year ago with his "Gang of Four" label for Thompson's team. Democrats will argue there must be a system of checks and balances in state government — that it's important that the treasurer and governor — or the attorney general and the governor — not be too chummy, even if they are of the same party.

Sometimes that's true. Remember when Thompson and Democratic Treasurer Jerry Cosentino were arguing about whether Thompson's okay was needed to provide aid to the RTA? In a case like that, it's good to have two points of view represented.

In other cases, it's not true. For instance, the legislature worked days of overtime one year in the mid-1970s when then-Gov. Dan Walker and then-Atty. Gen. William J. Scott got into a flap about who should control lawyers working for the state. Had the two been less combative, the issue surely would have been solved long before it became a cause celebre.

In Thompson's favor is the fact that disparity of views is most important between the governor and the comptroller. And while Skinner certainly is no stranger to Thompson, he also is not a part of the governor's inner circle.

Thompson has other worries, as well. A pre-primary poll done by Midwest Television (WCIA in Champaign and WMBD in Peoria) found Thompson and Democratic candidate Adlai E. Stevenson III running dead even. And while some analysts say that means Stevenson peaked too soon, the reverse may well be more accurate: Thompson may be the one peaking too early.

Maybe the best way to look at the situation is to analyze which candidate is more likely to lose support between now and November 2.

Thompson's public approval may well be tied to the economy, since he has chosen to defend his role as "cheerleader" for President Reagan and the president's economic policies. And that's a pretty frightening shake of the dice. Even if the economy does start to turn around before fall, it's going to take a while for the average voter to see much of an impact. And before the economy does come back, there will be more workers out of jobs, more layoffs and more misery. If the voters link Thompson with Reagan — and if Reagan's policies aren't paying off-it's hard to see how the governor's popularity could do anything but dip.

Meanwhile, the governor also is saddied with a horrible money crunch at the state level — a situation which seems sure to get worse instead of better.

Already Thompson is talking about needing a couple little tax increases to get through fiscal 1983. And that's without even thinking about keeping klitks

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the RTA running. Or patching up the state's crumbling roads. Or building the kind of prison space the federal courts say Illinois needs. Instead, the governor is cutting back on state aid to schools — a subject that's about as close to home as state government can get for most people. He's firing the people who weigh trucks on the state's road system, inviting further abuse of weight restrictions and more damage to the pavement. He's closing mental hospitals — if the courts let him.

The image he wants to project, obviously, is that of the courageous executive making hard choices to avoid a general statewide tax increase. That's a good image to project — provided few enough people feel the results personally. But if too many people wind up with broken axles, too many relatives are turned away from state mental health centers, too many students' programs are gutted at state universities, the governor may find his image is not as bright as he'd like. At some point, people realize they have to pay for the services they can get nowhere else but state government. And if Thompson continues to cut rather than provide, he invites trouble.

On the other hand, there are very few unavoidable factors that could negatively affect Stevenson's campaign. He's unlikely to lose votes just by calmly going about his campaign, criticizing Reagan and Thompson in the same breath.

Something else to consider is how much Thompson's popularity will affect his ticketmates. In recent years, there has been little "coattails" effect in Illinois elections. But there has never been a team like the one running behind Thompson.

For the record, Democrats nominated without opposition in the primary are: Stevenson for governor; Lake County Clerk Grace Mary Stern (Mary Grace, to hear George Dunne say it) for lieutenant governor; Treasurer Jerome Cosentino for secretary of state; Sen. James Donnewald for treasurer; former Lt. Gov. Neil Hartigan for attorney general; and incumbent Comptroller Roland Burris for reelection. □

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