By MILTON RAKOVE

Black votes uncertain

MAYOR Jane Byrne is now in the last year of her four-year term as mayor of Chicago and, in about seven months, will be running in the Democratic mayoral primary election for a second term. At the time of this writing (May 1982) the only potential serious opposing candidates appear to be State's Attorney Richard M. Daley or Congressman Daniel Rostenkowski. Most observers think that a Rostenkowski candidacy is possible, but unlikely, given his long service in Congress and the possibility that he could be speaker of the House of Representatives when Congressman Tip O'Neill lays down the gavel of that office. Most observers of the Chicago political scene are much more sanguine about the possibility of a Daley candidacy in either the Democratic mayoral primary in February 1983 or as an independent in the mayoral election in April 1983. Daley has played his cards close to the vest on either possibility, but has clearly emerged as the most viable candidate against Mayor Byrne in either situation.

The local Republican party, true to form, has no viable candidate for the mayoralty, except former Gov. Richard B. Ogilvie. But Ogilvie has declared loudly and clearly that he has no interest in being mayor of Chicago, and, indeed, has worked closely with Mayor Bryne on a number of local issues which are important to Byrne's forthcoming reelection campaign.

The most interesting thing about the forthcoming mayoral race in Chicago is the role that Chicago's black community will play. Blacks are the largest constituency in Chicago's body politic, numbering about 1.3 million out of a population of 3 million, or approximately 42 percent of the city's population; they outstrip any ethnic group, such as the Poles, Italians or Irish, and triple the Hispanic population of 422,000 (according to the 1980 concensus), although the Hispanic population is probably considerably larger than the census shows. But no viable black candidate has appeared and there is no potentially successful black candidate on the horizon. Indeed, one of the certainties of the upcoming mayoral election is that Chicago will not elect a black mayor in 1983. There is no local Tom Bradley, Richard Hatcher or Andrew Young in sight at this time.

What role will Chicago's black constituency play, then, in the 1983 mayoral primary and election?

It is difficult to prognosticate the influence Chicago's blacks will have on next year's mayoral election, although some things about the political behavior of Chicago's black voters have manifested themselves over the past decade or so.

One thing that is clear is that the black vote in Chicago is not an automatically deliverable vote for the Democratic machine in elections, as it had been for many years in Chicago. In the early Richard J. Daley years as Chicago's mayor and party boss, the black vote, which was controlled by the late Congressman William L. Dawson, was a significant factor in electing Daley to the mayoralty in 1955, 1959 and 1963. But black voters began to break away and assert their independence in the late 1960s and 1970s. Indeed, it was the black vote, which, more than any other constituency, was responsible for Jane Byrne's victory over Mayor Michael Bilandic and the Democratic machine in the 1979 mayoral primary. Byrne carried almost every black ward in the city against Bilandic, which was a phenomenal switch from the old days of solid machine black wards. What the blacks would do in a Byrne/Daley contest will have an important effect on the outcome of such a race.

It has become increasingly evident that a substantial part of the black community has become disillusioned with Mayor Byrne over the past three years. That is especially true of the growing middle-class and working-class black communities in Chicago. Byrne is in less trouble with the poor and welfare dependent black communities in Chicago, which were traditionally deliverable by the Democratic machine. But even there, the machine may have trouble delivering for Byrne in the mayoral primary.

But will blacks vote for Daley in a Byrne/Daley contest?

No one can be certain of what the blacks will do in such a contest. If they are angry enough at Mayor Byrne, they could come out for Daley as they did for Byrne against Bilandic in the 1979 mayoral primary. But, if a viable black candidate enters the lists in the 1983 primary, and if the black middle class and working class are also disenchanted with Daley, they could vote in sufficient numbers for that candidate to help Byrne win with less than a majority of the vote.

The other possibility is that black middle-class and working-class voters could stay home and not vote in a Byrne/Daley contest. There has been a substantial drop in the black vote in the past few years in Chicago in all three black communities — middle class, working class and welfare poor. If the black middle-class and working-class voters sat out the primary or election, and if the machine was able to mobilize and deliver the vote in the poor black welfare wards, that would work in Byrne's favor.

What will the black middle class and working class do in Chicago's 1983 mayoral election? That's a crucial question, and difficult to answer.

July 1982 | Illinois Issues | 43