Chicago

By ED McMANUS

At the brink of a power shift

NEIL F. Hartigan's withdrawl from the race for governor threatened to turn the March 18 primary election inturn somewhat of a yawner. But a federal judge has breathed life back into that date, at least in Chicago, and his decision may influence who the next mayor is.

What U.S. District Judge Charles Norgle did December 30 was order a special election for aldermen and ward committeemen in seven malapportioned Chicago wards. He could have decided to wait until the regularly scheduled February 1987 election to put the new ward map into effect, but he chose to plunge ahead, declaring that the residents of the seven wards deserved fair representation now, not later.

The significance of the new map is that it could swing the balance of power in the City Council from Aid. Edward Vrdolyak to Mayor Harold Washington. That sounds like a plus for the mayor, although some observers believe it could end up doing him more harm than good. More on that later.

Norgle's decision culminated a lawsuit filed in 1982 by a black, 60-year-old south side steelworker, Mars Ketchum. With the help of state Sen. Richard H. Newhouse Jr. (D-13, Chicago), Ketchum sued the city, charging that the voting rights of blacks and Hispanics were violated by a map drawn up by the council in 1981 when it was under the domination of former Mayor Jane Byrne.

The court found that there indeed was discrimination and ordered a redrawing of the boundaries of seven wards in such a way as to increase the number of minorities in them. Under the new map, three of the wards have black majorities and four are predominantly Hispanic. The wards are now represented by Vrdolyak loyalists — six whites and one Hispanic. The Hispanic, Miguel Santiago, is expected to win reelection in the 31st Ward, and one of the whites, Robert Kellam, is favored in the 18th, where blacks have only a slight majority. There are 10 other candidates in that ward; former state Rep. Monica Faith Stewart, a black who is an ally of the mayor, is Kellam's biggest competition.

Four of the other white incumbents, realizing the odds are against them, aren't running. Three of them are running for the Cook County Board instead and the fourth, 88-year-old Vito Marzullo, is retiring. The remaining white, Frank Brady, is running in the almost-all-black 15th Ward, where a Washington-endorsed candidate is likely to win. Washington candidates may be able to win the black 37th Ward and the Hispanic 22nd Ward, too. But the 25th and 26th, both heavily Hispanic wards, are up for grabs. Altogether, 50 candidates filed in the seven wards.

Vrdolyak currently controls 29 aldermen, and Washington's forces number 21. If Washington's people can win four seats, the council will be divided 25-25, and the mayor has the authority to break all tie votes.

Even if Vrdolyak retains control of the council, he may not be running the county Democratic party much longer. He will be up for reelection as central committee chairman following the March election, and there are indications that the committee is disenchanted with him. For one thing, some new committeemen elected in the seven wards are likely to be anti-Vrdolyak. More important, if the machine's slate doesn't do well in the County Board primary March 18, Vrdolyak may get the blame.

In the past, the County Board election was cut and dried. The Democratic machine slated 10 people for the 10 board seats elected from Chicago, and no one else even bothered to run. But this year things came unglued. It all started when the party decided to dump five of the 10 incumbents, mainly so jobs could be found for three of the above-mentioned aldermen who were being remapped out of existence. Two of the county commissioners being dumped announced they'd run in the primary anyway, and various other candidates began announcing, some of them with some powerful political backing.

At this writing (mid-January), 31 people were on the ballot. And as a result of a lottery drawing, four independents will appear at the top of the ballot ahead of the party slate. At least two of them have an excellent chance of winning nomination, and the other two may very well win, too.

As for the city council situation, there are those who believe that if Washington wins control, it will hurt him in his bid for reelection in 1987. Right now, he can campaign on the theme that his attempts to reform the city government have been blocked by the hostile council. If the council majority is no longer hostile, that issue is not as potent.

Also, in each ward in which no one gains 50 percent of the vote March 18, there will be a runoff scheduled for April 29. That will leave less than 10 months before the mayoral primary in February 1987, little time for the mayor to accomplish much.

Washington is still favored to win reelection. So far, only Jane Byrne is running against him in the Democratic primary. There is no obvious candidate for the party to put up, and it's conceivable they may wind up endorsing Byrne. Polls show Washington running ahead of Byrne, though not by big numbers. If the Republican party fields a strong candidate, it could be another interesting general election.

March 1986/Illinois Issues/43