Illinois Issues Election Almanac

By PORTER McNEIL

Reagan coattails:
long or short in Illinois?

QUESTION: Has the so-called Reagan Revolution swept Illinois in the 1980s?

MUCH has been written and said about the political magic of President Ronald Wilson Reagan, victor of two lopsided presidential contests in 1980 and 1984. Many conservatives have been predicting that a nationwide Reagan Revolution would sweep Republicans into public offices at every level across the country.

Measuring Reagan's coattail effect is a difficult business. Many factors contribute to voting behavior, and the outcome of many political races depends more on local factors than on who is sitting in the White House at the time. Largely due to sustained sluggish economic conditions and other local factors, the so-called Reagan Revolution does not seem to have swept through the state during the 1980s.

One possible measure of the Reagan coat-tails, the vote for congressional candidates during the 1980s, reveals that Reagan has not carried Illinois to new Republican congressional highs, except for an impressive electoral burst in the 1980 election.

Illinois Republican congressional candidates won 54 percent of the total congressional vote and took a 14-10 seat margin over the Democrats after the 1980 election, but the vote for Democratic candidates shot up in the next two elections. After the 1982 election, Democrats held a 12-10 seat margin over the Republicans, which was increased to 13-9 after the 1984 election — despite the fact that Reagan beat Walter Mondale by a 56-44 margin in Illinois that year.

ANSWER: Not when measured by Illinois congressional elections.