By the time you read this column the first steps in the Democratic presidential selection process will be less than a month away. The Iowa precinct caucuses on February 8, 1988, the New Hampshire primary on February 16, 1988, and the southern states' primaries and caucuses on "Super Tuesday," March 8, 1988 (and the preceding weekend), are the crucial steps in the selection of the eventual Democratic nominee.

At this time let's review what I last wrote in this column published in July. On the basis of two polls taken in late May, I observed that Sen. Paul Simon was then holding at a statewide rating of approximately 36 percent among voters likely to participate in the March 15, 1988, Illinois primary, and the Rev. Jesse Jackson was the choice of approximately 9 percent of likely primary voters. Since then two factors have strengthened both of these candidates' chances of doing well in the Illinois primary. First, Jackson has been formally endorsed by most of the state's leading black Democrats, including Chicago Mayor Harold Washington, Second, Simon has become a legitimate contender — one hesitates to say frontrunner at this point — for the Democratic nomination.

The Democratic party's nomination process is very difficult to understand. So I asked Dan Kerrigan, a Democratic media consultant from Washington, D.C, who has done work in Illinois for Sen. Alan J. Dixon, among others, to explain the significance of these early primaries on the nominating process, and specifically the significance of the Illinois primary. Kerrigan is an expert on the Democratic party's presidential selection process since he has served as a technical adviser to the Democratic National Committee's Fairness Commission, which set the rules for the 1988 process.

According to Kerrigan, the first thing that must be understood about the impact of the Illinois primary in the selection of a Democratic presidential candidate is that it is one of the very few primaries which still operates almost as a winner-take-all contest. Illinois is a "loophole primary state" where it is possible for a candidate to take all of the potential delegates in a specific congressional district to the Democratic national convention without winning a majority of the popular votes. Voters are asked to vote twice in the Illinois primary, once in a nonbinding statewide beauty contest for a candidate for the presidential nomination and again for a slate of delegates pledged to a candidate. For example, if Simon's slate of delegates in the 21st Congressional District received 35 percent of the vote, with the next slate getting anything less than that vote, Simon would get all of the delegates. In many other states, the winners would be determined by dividing the vote proportionately among the delegates of the several candidates.

Given Illinois' loophole, it may be very possible that Simon could take all of the slated delegates in the 19 congressional districts outside of Chicago, while Jackson could take the rest — the three Chicago congressional districts represented by Congressmen Gus Savage (2nd) and Charles A. Hayes (1st) and Congress-woman Cardiss Collins (7th). Simon and Jackson should also take the lion's share of the at-large delegates to be chosen by the Illinois Democratic State Central Committee. Obviously, if Simon should do well in Iowa, which would give him tremendous momentum in New Hampshire and the Super Tuesday states, then Illinois could give him a crushing strategic victory, very similar to the one that President Jimmy Carter had over Sen. Ted Kennedy in the 1980 primary.

If there is a candidate who has a small chance of coming from virtual obscurity to become a player in the selection process, it is probably former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt. If the upper echelon of the Democratic candidates includes Simon, Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis and Missouri's Congressman Richard Gephardt — solely classified because of their relative ability to win the nomination — then U.S. Sen. Albert Gore Jr. of Tennessee and Babbitt comprise the lower echelon. It is important to note here, however, that while Babbitt has concentrated on issues, particularly economic ones, Gore has taken a tack of attacking the process itself and his fellow candidates. If lightning should strike, and in this year's contest everything but that has happened, then Babbitt has at least a base of issues to define his candidacy, while it seems Gore will have to depend on his personal appeal to carry his chances. Also, Babbitt represents the West, a region where the Democratic party has a better chance to win than in the South next year.

No matter which of the Democratic candidates survive to run in the Illinois primary, they will be faced with a series of vexing problems to address. Our most recent polling shows that crime and taxes are two of the biggest issues facing not only Chicago but also suburban Cook County and the collar counties, a metropolitan area that is the source of almost two-thirds of the vote cast in the Illinois Democratic party.

The specific problems to be faced by the candidates are:

• How to offer more federal aid to Chicago without raising the spectre of more taxes or tax increases.

• How to take more conservative positions on criminal justice issues.

• How to help Illinois win the super collider/super conductor project in the super competition with other states to gain the largest federal project of our time.

These and other important national issues will lay the foundation for the debate among the candidates in the Illinois primary. The outcome is still uncertain at this time, but Sen. Simon and the Rev. Jackson must be considered the frontrunners in Illinois.

Michael McKeon is head of McKeon & Associates, a national polling organization.