Edgar and Ryan: poised for the race

Take 12,000 Boy Scouts. Add 400 or so American flags. Put them at the tomb of one of the country's greatest presidents. Order up a clear and sunny Sunday afternoon. It is an afternoon made for a politician.

For Secy. of State Jim Edgar the scouts attending the annual Lincoln Pilgrimage on April 24 in Springfield comprised the largest audience he had ever had (except for the time he gave Ernie Banks his license plates at Wrigley Field). "I hope I'm around when they all vote," he quips as he climbs the steps to Lincoln's tomb to address the group.

Edgar told the scouts of Lincoln' s legacy: "He, perhaps more than any other American, made a difference." Edgar urged civic responsibility: "You should take the time to register. You should take the time to vote. But, most importantly, you should take the time to become informed about the candidates and issues." And he asked that they consider public service: "Through

Lt. Gov. George H. Ryan, Republican

government service, you actually can save lives."

When the speeches were done Edgar descended from the tomb, shed his tie, got a quick briefing on Monday's schedule, then marched down First Street to the Capitol. He walked with Sen. John A. Davidson (R-50, Springfield) and Rep. Karen Hasara (R-100, Springfield) behind the six bagpipes and three drums of the Ansar Highlanders and in front of 400 massed flags carried by scouts. Davidson got more attention from a scattering of spectators and those with cameras were more interested in the flags.

Take a costumed troupe performing the traditional folk dances of Italy and Greece. Add a couple of hundred high school students and some foreign language teachers. Put them on the west steps of the Capitol, warming in the sunshine beyond the shadows of late morning on April 28. Bring on the deputy consul of the People's Republic of China, the chairman of the State Board of Education and the state superintendent of education. It is another rally for a legislative cause. The cause is a bill to boost teaching of foreign languages. It is Lt. Gov. George H. Ryan's cause this spring. He speaks to the assembly, flanked by banners proclaiming "Export Now —Illinois World Trade Month." Sharp gusts chill spectators and threaten to topple the U.S. and Illinois flags. Ryan tells the crowd that while less than 2 percent of Illinois high school students take four years of a foreign language, students in France and Germany must be proficient in two languages to graduate. "Our challenge is to try to end our economic and cultural isolationism," he tells the students. He then leaves for the Executive Mansion where he presides at an awards luncheon recognizing foreign language teaching.

Six days later the bill, H.B. 2780, comes before the House Elementary and Secondary Education Committee. It would provide money for foreign language programs, develop pilot programs to increase public school foreign language teaching and provide grants to foster cooperation between universities and public schools. It

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Secy. of State Jim Edgar, Republican

is also a mandate because without state money, schools would still have to improve foreign language programs. The committee is frowning upon mandates. But the agreement to pass a Democratic bill mandating a drug program and Ryan's bill has already been made when Ryan arrives to testify. Committee Chairman Rep. Richard T. Mulcahey (D-69, Durand) welcomes the "attorney general," then corrects himself. Ryan is asked how much his program will cost. He says he does not know. The vote is 22 to 1 to send the bill to the House floor.

Neither Ryan's cause nor Edgar's speech matter greatly in the scheme of things in Springfield. Both are small potatoes when it comes to this year's big issues — a tax increase, keeping the White Sox in Illinois and Chicago school reform. But the Executive Mansion is not small potatoes, and both Edgar and Ryan would like to occupy it. Except for Gov. James R. Thompson, they are the only Republican holders of statewide office. Edgar has taken the state's richest political office and used it to push a few carefully chosen causes and to build bridges with Republicans across the state. Ryan has used six years as lieutenant governor to soften the hardnosed pol image that he earned as House speaker.

History is against both. Twice in this century has a lieutenant governor become governor. The last time that happened was in 1968 when Gov. Otto Kerner left office to take a federal judgeship and Samuel H. Shapiro, a Kankakee Democrat, succeeded him. Shapiro served eight months, then lost the 1968 election to Richard B. Ogilvie. The only secretary of state to become governor in this century was Louis L. Emmerson, a Jefferson County Republican, in 1929.

Both would-be governors have ties to current-governor Thompson. Edgar spent two years as Thompson's legislative liaison and was appointed secretary of state by Thompson, filling the vacancy left by Alan J. Dixon's election to the U.S. Senate. Ryan was selected by Thompson to be his running mate in 1982, and Thompson bankrolled and supported him in a three-way primary race that year.

Both Edgar and Ryan have been active in their offices. Edgar says he uses the office as a "bully pulpit" to fight drunk driving and adult illiteracy and to push for mandatory auto insurance. He has chosen well, all are areas popular with voters. "I've tried to take my job as secretary of state and do it to the fullest," he says. Edgar continues, "I want to be an activist. Now people might say how can you be an activist and be a Republican. Being an activist doesn't mean more government regulations. It doesn't mean spending more money."

Ryan came to an office discredited by his predecessor, and felt he had to rebuild it. Dave O'Neal had resigned in mid term claiming he was bored, and the position had stood vacant two years. "We have restored the office of lieutenant governor to one of respect," Ryan said at his 1987 inauguration. In his office Ryan has pushed prevention of substance abuse, economic development and rural development. He has chaired the Illinois Export Council, the Illinois Export Development Authority and the Employee Ownership Advisory Council. He was named by Thompson to head the 1986 Task Force on the Future of Rural Illinois and to serve as the state's trade and tourism representative.

Both men have plenty of experience in state government, and although Edgar is the younger he has been around longer. Edgar began in Springfield in 1968 as an aide to then Sen. President W. Russell Arrington (R-1, Evanston). It was a post he initially took with reservations, fearing that Arrington would be too conservative. He learned differently. Edgar recalls that Arrington was physically sick for three days after Gov. Ogilvie tapped Arrington to sponsor the state's income tax, then went out and passed it. Edgar tells another Arrington story. A year after the income tax a package of legislation to help the Chicago Transit Authority fell apart in the closing days of the General Assembly. Afterwards Arrington was depressed. Edgar asked why, since politically no damage had been done. "There was a problem to solve and we didn't solve it. That upsets me. The legislature should solve problems." Edgar was later elected twice to the Illinois House after losing a primary on his first attempt. He is a student of government. He worries about things like gaining a Republican foothold in Chicago's Hispanic community. "We can't afford to lose the Hispanics like we lost the blacks."

Ryan's earlier experience was higher profile. He served two years as speaker of the House in 1981 and 1982, the last time the Republicans controlled either chamber. He opposed the Equal Rights Amendment and earned the wrath of its proponents. Militants wrote Ryan's name in blood

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on the floor of the Capitol as part of their protest. It was a difficult time, too, because the Cutback Amendment had passed reducing the size of the House from 177 to 118 members. He recalls, "There were 59 members that knew they weren't coming back. It became difficult as the leader to deliver votes on issues that were important to the administration because the discipline wasn't there." He emerged from that fracas with a reputation as a hard-nosed politician. His tenure as lieutenant governor has allowed him to soften that somewhat by taking on bigger issues and avoiding the day-to-day confrontation. Some supporters acknowledge a campaign for governor would have been impossible in 1982.

"Trying to figure out the GOP nominee for governor after Thompson is like trying to figure out who would be president of France after de Gaulle," says Paul Green, a political scientist and political junkie from Governors State University.

James Nowlan, a former state representative, a one-time independent candidate for governor and a professor at Knox College, sees strengths and weaknesses in each. Nowlan wonders whether either has a clear notion of where he wants to take Illinois. On the other hand Edgar is an attractive person, knowledgeable and experienced and still fresh, Nowlan says. "He's an attractive candidate but a cautious politician." Nowlan says Ryan would bring experience to the job. "He's been in the rough and tumble of things and might be able to work in the bear pit of state legislative politics, more so than Edgar."

Nowlan raises another possibility, that neither Edgar nor Ryan will be the next Republican gubernatorial candidate. Today's political parties and organizations have become almost secondary to highly expensive and visible media campaigns. And in 1976 a Republican without state government experience, but with oodles of exposure in the Chicago media market as a crusading federal prosecutor, captured the nomination and became the longest serving governor in the state's history.

An upstate Republican activist says that neither Ryan or Edgar has the recognition yet needed in the Chicago metropolitan area. "They have the beginnings of it. Both of them need to expand that base. I wouldn't say that either of them is as well known as Jim Thompson in 1976." He thinks that many underestimate Ryan's desire to move up and notes that a gubernatorial campaign is tougher than any either Edgar or Ryan has run. He acknowledges that the upper hand is probably Edgar's: "I'm not disagreeing, but that doesn't necessarily make it game, set and match." And he notes that Ryan has more incentive. "George has nothing to lose. The political risk for George is less than for Jimmy."

The GOP insiders, those who work the campaigns and know voters across the state, give the edge in an Edgar/ Ryan match to Edgar. Edgar has a larger office and more people on the payroll able to help in a campaign, and he has better name recognition. But most admit that a pre-1990 departure by Thompson for some national office could change the equation.

Carter Hendren, chief of staff and political strategist for Senate Minority Leader James "Pate" Philip (R-23, Wood Dale),

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says both are "great guys" and better than any Democratic candidate. "My gut feeling is that Edgar has the upper hand," Hendren says. He says Edgar proved his mettle when he won big in 1982, during one of the worst Republican years. Edgar's campaign against drunk driving has earned him recognition. And, Hendren says, Edgar has a broader fundraising base. "Both I would define as astute politicians," Hendren says.

A Thompson campaign stalwart who asked to remain anonymous likewise gives the upper hand to Edgar for his fundraising ability and organization. He suggests that the affections among Republicans may be stronger for Ryan, but that when it comes to selecting a candidate, the party will rally behind Edgar, who is seen as a winner. After Thompson's long tenure, the party is fortunate to have someone of Edgar's stature available, he says.

But he also warned that successful candidacies for lower office do not translate into a gubernatorial winner, citing Neil F. Hartigan, Michael J. Howlett and William J. Scott as examples. Only in races for governor and U.S. senator does a candidate face the problem of having everything he or she says reported by the media, the observer suggested.

Another Republican activist who knows them both says neither Ryan nor Edgar is an ideologue. He characterizes Edgar as shy and reserved and Ryan as outgoing and one of the boys. On an off day Ryan would golf with friends, while Edgar would read a book. Edgar has improved his public speaking, but Ryan can do a better job when he knows his stuff, he suggests. Of the pair Edgar is the rising star, but Ryan is not a star eclipsed.

Still, the advantage goes to Edgar, he says, because his office commands more attention than does Ryan's. For example, Edgar's campaign against drunk driving has been much more visible than Ryan's against substance abuse. "I would guess that Jim's name identification is almost as high as Thompson's," he says. All that changes, though, if Thompson leaves office. Then Ryan, if he wishes, has the ability to raise the money and put together the organization. At that point a run for U.S. senator might look good to Edgar, he says. "If George is governor, I think it's highly unlikely that Edgar would challenge him."

One downstate Republican chairman says either candidate would be acceptable. Edgar's appeal is well-distributed throughout the state, and he is perceived as decent and not hypocritical, the chairman suggests. He says Ryan is well-liked by party people, although he sometimes appears gruff. "I guess it just becomes a matter of timing," he suggests.

The events of May 6 illustrate the attention given timing. That day's rumor in Washington had Ed Meese out as attorney general, to be replaced by Jim Thompson. Staffers for both Ryan and Edgar spent much of the day on the phone talking to friends and fielding questions from Washington.

Choice of the next Republican nominee for governor depends upon perception of performance in minor office. Edgar has run a successful campaign against drunk driving. Ryan has loyally carried water for Thompson. The smart money is on Edgar, but it's not a sure thing.□

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