Political dominoes if Thompson 'born to be v.p.'

For almost two decades now, one of the highlights of the Capitol social scene each spring has been the Illinois Legislative Correspondents Association's Gridiron Dinner, a light-hearted spoof in skit and song of state political figures. This year, the show's finale featured a make-believe Gov. James R. Thompson, who belted out "Born to be V.P." to the tune of rock legend Bruce Springsteen's "Born in the U.S.A." The catchy refrain was picked up on by more than a few of those in the audience, in an apparent case of art — if one stretches the term to include the press corps' theatrics — reflecting life.

Indeed, the prospect that Vice President George Bush, the Republican choice for president, might pick Thompson as his running mate enjoys considerable support among Illinois Republicans, and it's not just state pride showing. If the governor moves onto the national scene, things open up back home for others' ambitions, of course, and moreover in some GOP circles there's a suspicion that after a dozen years Thompson may have worn out his welcome with the voters.

The most obvious beneficiary if Thompson leaves Springfield, either as vice president or for a Cabinet post in a Bush administration, would be Lt. Gov. George H. Ryan, to whom the reins of government would pass. The former House speaker then presumably would have almost two years before the 1990 gubernatorial election to harness the considerable powers of the incumbent to win in his own right. As Thompson has shown, state jobs and contracts are indispensable tools for forging a strong, well-financed political operation. A Ryan move into the Mansion would complicate life for Secy. of State Jim Edgar, currently rated as the GOP front-runner by Statehouse handicappers. Would Edgar wish to take on Gov. Ryan in the Republican primary — or might he opt instead to challenge U.S. Sen. Paul Simon, thought by some pundits to be more vulnerable because of an ill-considered presidential bid?

If Thompson stays and finishes out his fourth term, of course, it's not inconceivable that he might seek a fifth — in which case don't expect a run by either Ryan or Edgar, neither of them such political ingrates that they'd challenge the man who hand-picked them for their current jobs.

Democrats, too, have more than passing interest in what the future holds for Thompson because of its significance for 1990. All three Democrats currently holding statewide office — Attorney General Neil F. Hartigan, Comptroller Roland W. Burris and Treasurer Jerry Cosentino – harbor gubernatorial aspirations, and some party loyalists even wonder whether the intense dislike Adlai E. Stevenson III bears for Thompson might not drive him to want a third chance at the governor, should he run again.

At this point, Hartigan has to be considered the Democratic front-runner, though a lot can change between now and the December 1989 filing deadline. In fact, Hartigan enjoyed the "most likely" rating at a similar juncture four years ago, only to have Stevenson, abetted by House Speaker Michael J. Madigan (D-30, Chicago), enter the race a year later and force Hartigan out.

Hartigan's departure under pressure raised questions that persist today about his toughness, his willingness to mix it up in a knockdown, dragout scrap for the party's nomination. But Burris and Cosentino have some past scars, too.

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In 1984, Burris finished a disappointing third in the four-way contest for the party's senatorial nomination won by Simon. And his flirtation last year with the "Just Say No to Taxes" crowd, a United Republican Fund front organization, didn't sit well with some of the labor and special interest groups that are part of the party's traditional constituency.

Moreover, the comptroller raised some eyebrows last July when he hammered Thompson for vetoing $250 million from the budget sent him by the legislature. Instead, Burris suggested, the governor should have embraced a Democratic plan that called for rolling over a $104 million debt repayment and drawing the state's reserves down to zero. That advice contradicted Burris' own past pronouncements about the need to curtail spending and to keep a $200 million balance and would have plunged the state into fiscal disaster much more serious than the inability to pay Medicaid bills and tax refunds on time.

Cosentino also has taken his lumps statewide, losing a 1982 bid for secretary of state to Edgar, the leading GOP vote-getter that year. The treasurer has scored some political points with his crusade against high credit card rates, but, like Burris, remains untested on the wide variety of state government issues that would-be governors must master if they are to appear credible to voters. A popular style and the knack for finding top-notch people to run largely ministerial operations do not a governor make — as Michael J. Howlett, a master in both, discovered a dozen years ago.

And there are dark horses as well, perhaps none so well qualified for the job as Senate President Philip J. Rock (D-8, Oak Park). After almost two decades in the Senate, Rock's mastery of state government is undisputed, and he is widely regarded as a class act by colleagues on both sides of the aisle. But he, too, bombed on the statewide circuit, finishing fourth in the 1982 Democratic senatorial primary.

Illinois' next gubernatorial election is still more than two years away, of course. In the next few weeks, though, George Bush could play a significant role in shaping the 1990 ticket here, if, indeed, Thompson turns out to be "born to be v.p."□

Charles N. Wheeler III is a correspondent in the Springfield Bureau of the Chicago Sun-Times.

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