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The Pulse



Dukakis and Bush in Illinois' big swing district


ii881028-1.jpg
By NICK PANAGAKIS

Marty Russo has been elected to Congress seven times in the Illinois Third Congressional District, and the last five times with from 64 percent to 69 percent of the vote. But spreads between Congressman Russo's vote and the vote in his district for Democrats higher on the ballot, especially presidential candidates, ranks this district as the one with the greatest swing vote in Illinois.



Michael Dukakis was
leading George Bush in
this poll with a larger
margin than in national polls


In 1980 these Democrats became Reagan Democrats, giving him 52 percent of their votes; Carter barely won the Chicago wards in the district that year. In 1984 Walter Mondale lost the district to Reagan by 30 percentage points. Even in 1976, Carter lost the district — by 16 points to Gerald Ford. Since 1968, Republican presidential candidates have been winning the district with higher margins than they got statewide.

The 1988 presidential campaign began on Labor Day, according to conventional wisdom. That's when all voters begin to look seriously at the candidates (and happily that coincides with the deadline for this column). How did Michael Dukakis and George Bush stand with the swing voters in Illinois' Third Congressional District as the 1988 campaign began?

Recall that the conventions had ended and the only news was on the running mates. Revelations about Dan Quayle's background were described as a soap opera, and Republicans were trying to keep their vice presidential candidate from sounding like he belonged on Lifestyles of the Rich and Blameless. When the Democratic convention ended, Republicans tried to make an issue of Jesse Jackson's influence. The ticket was described as a "troika" of Dukakis, Lloyd Bentsen and Jackson, and Gov. James R. Thompson called it a "three-headed monster."

A month later in a poll we conducted among voters in Illinois' Third Congressional District, Jackson was not a popular figure. Only 20 percent rated him favorably and 63 percent unfavorably. A majority (56 percent) of district voters said Jackson would not have too much influence on a Dukakis administration: 66 percent of Democrats, 63 percent of Reagan Democrats and 55 percent of independents said that Jackson would not have too much influence.

In the poll, 66 percent of those who voted in 1984 said they voted for Ronald Reagan (very close to the actual record). Reagan continued to get high marks for how he had handled his job: 65 percent approval, almost entirely due to economic recovery. According to the poll, however, only 43 percent would vote for Reagan again; 50 percent would vote against him. Of Democrats who voted for Reagan in 1984, only 48 percent would vote for him again.

Is this an inconsistency? Not necessarily. In another question, 56 percent said it was time for a change while only 38 percent thought the country was headed in the right direction.

Michael Dukakis was leading George Bush in this poll with a larger margin than in national polls, and the single most important reason the Illinois Third District voters gave for why they chose Dukakis was "time for a change."


October 1988 | Illinois Issues | 28


Voters compared Dukakis and Bush on several characteristics. Dukakis scored his largest winning margins on "cares more about the average, middle-income person" and on "the more likeable person." By a 3-to-1 ratio Dukakis was chosen as the one who would care more than Bush about the kind of people who live in this district. By almost as strong a ratio, Dukakis was liked more than Bush: 81 percent of the Reagan Democrats who voted for Reagan in 1984 picked Dukakis as more likeable; 86 percent of all Dukakis voters picked him as more likeable. Only 51 percent of all Bush voters said Bush was more likeable; 24 percent of them chose Dukakis as more likeable.

A candidate must give voters a good idea of who he is and what he stands for, and the majority in this Third District poll thought newcomer Dukakis was doing that better than Bush. This is evidence of the vague image Bush had in the shadow of Ronald Reagan.

By a small margin, Bush's views on abortion won over Dukakis' in this predominantly Catholic district, but 39 percent said they don't know who to agree with on the issue.

Bush has made a strong promise of not raising taxes, but he was picked by only 40 percent (compared to 30 percent for Dukakis) as being the candidate more opposed to tax increases. Eighteen percent don't know what to believe.

Dukakis' voters were more concerned about budget deficits than taxes; 30 percent said deficits were the most important problem (of 12 listed) facing the nation, while only 4 percent said federal tax levels were a problem.

Bush was favored by a 2-to-1 margin to better prepare the nation for defense, but only 3 percent thought that adequate military capability was a major problem facing the nation.

This was only one poll in only one place. But as this campaign season started in this biggest swing district in the swing state of Illinois, Dukakis was believed to care more about the average person, to give a better idea of what he stands for and was better liked than Bush.□

Nick Panagakis is president of Market Shares Corporation, a marketing and public opinion research firm in Mount Prospect.


October 1988 | Illinois Issues | 29



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