Illinois' congressional races

When the founders compromised by creating a bicameral Congress, they envisioned a machine with an engine fueled by the energy of the people who would elect the House and braked by the tempering reason of senators chosen by state legislatures.

Besides being directly elected, representatives were to have short terms — only two years. Prerequisites for office were easy: 25 years old or older, seven years a citizen and residency in the state in which one was chosen. In short, the people could, and likely would, turn over their representatives to the U.S. House often. In practice that was true, at least until the 20th century. The average number of terms served by those in the House was less than three until 1901. The figure doubled by 1961. The House was transformed into a stable, low turnover body fïlled with political professionals making careers out of serving as representatives.

The Illinois delegation elected in 1986 had both freshmen and very senior people. Including Meivin Price (D-21, East St. Louis), who died this year in his 22nd term, the average for the delegation was 7.5 terms. But even discounting Price, the average for the remaining 21 was just under 7 terms.

Repeated reelections to Congress do not happen by chance; districts are drawn to be dominated by one party or the other. The "diabolical cleverness" noted by Republicans in the congressional districts drawn by then Illinois House Minority Leader Michael J. Madigan (D-30, Chicago) in 1981 has fixed the political landscape ever since. Typically, once a candidate has obtained the dominant party's nomination, he or she wins the election, repeated renominations and reelections.

In 1986, the results were unexceptional. In 20 of 22 districts incumbents were present to renew their tenure of office. Democrats returned 13 incumbents while Republicans reelected seven. The two open seats were previously held by Republicans. In District 4 (Aurora, Joliet and suburbs south of Chicago) the incumbent, George M. O'Brien, had died after having won the primary nomination. In neighboring District 14 (north central Illinois, including DeKalb and Elgin) John Grotberg was renominated, but incapacity due to cancer led him to retire. In both districts Republican party officials filled the ballot vacancies. In each case they chose experienced state representatives who would otherwise have run for reelection to the General Assembly. Both Republicans won, Jack Davis in District 4 by a 52-48 percent margin and Dennis Hastert in District 14 by the same percentage. The partisan balance remained the same: 13 Democrats, nine Republicans.

The 1986 results, while typical, do not exhaust the possibilities. In an enduring two-party system such as ours, the minority party sometimes benefits from any emerging vulnerabilities that may be revealed about the majority party's incumbent. For example, in 1983 Republican incumbent Daniel B. Crane was censured by the House for an affair with a female congressional page. Despite his veteran status, his fourth term candidacy was toppled by Democratic challenger Terry Bruce in District 19 by a 52-48 percent margin in 1984. In the 21st District Mel Price's age (80) and frailty became an issue in 1985 after he was ousted from his chairmanship of the House Armed Services Committee by his own party. He survived a primary challenge and went on to win reelection over Robert Gaffner, but only by a fraction of a percent (50.4-49.6).

Besides those provoked by the conspicuous vulnerability of the incumbents, genuine contests are commonplace where there are open seats. Open seats are simply those that have no incumbent. The incumbent may have died, retired or sought other political office. In 1984, for example, two House members perceived vulnerability in Republican Sen. Charles H. Percy's reelection prospects: Republican Thomas Corcoran gave up his U.S. House seat only to be defeated in the Republican primary, but Democrat Paul Simon's decision to give up his House seat proved successful since he won the Senate seat. The Senate election had, in effect, caused two open seats among the House delegation.

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Another source of real races are marginal districts, those in which election results stay within the range of 65-35 percent. Gary C. Jacobson analyzes the increasingly changeable voting habits of Americans in the February 1987 issue of the American Journal of Political Science by saying, "An incumbent elected in the 1970s with between 60 and 65 percent of the vote was just as likely to lose in the next election as an incumbent in the 1950s who had been elected with 55 to 60 percent of the vote. . . ."

Four Illinois districts fit the marginal definition since the 1981 redistricting: 4 and 14, which have already been mentioned, and 17 and 18. District 17 was drawn to create an opportunity for Democrats in the Quad Cities area. Democrat Lane Evans captured the seat in 1982 with 53 percent of the vote. He has won twice since, never surpassing 57 percent. The second marginal district was created by Democrats to give House Republican Leader Robert Michel a hard time. Michel received a real scare in 1982, winning by 52 percent. Successful in 13 previous elections, Michel had never had an outcome that close. Since then Michel has boosted his margin to 61 and 63 percent, but he has not forgotten that close call.

At this writing prospects are that the 1988 presidential contest will likely be close and that neither party will carry Illinois with 60 percent or more of the vote. Congressional challengers will have to beat the odds on their own with little help from their presidential ticket. For Democrats that suggests that 10 incumbents are safe. None has become vulnerable by reason of age, conspicuous gaffe or through challenge from a compellingly attractive opponent. For the sames reasons seven of nine Republican incumbents are favorites to win solid reelection victories. (See box.)

In 1988 there are two open seats in Illinois that raise the prospect of genuine races. The seat in District 21 is open due to the death of Price. He had previously promised to retire, so the November combatants for the seat were determined in the March primary: Robert H. Gaffner, the Republican who had challenged Price in the previous three elections, and Jerry Costello, the chairman of the St. Clair County Commission. But Price's death in April prompted a special election this summer. Gaffner and Costello fought to a near draw, Costello winning by less than 2,000 votes (51.5 to 48.5 percent).

Costello has the advantage that Democratic voting is traditionally strong in St. Clair County. It was one of only six Illinois counties to vote in favor of Mondale and Ferraro over Reagan and Bush in 1984. In 1986 Sen. Alan Dixon, a near neighbor, won 75 percent of the vote (taking 65 percent in the state at large). Gaffner's prospects could be helped by the Bush candidacy and a growing economy. He has charged Costello with being an old-time patronage boss who manipulates jobs, contracts and public offices, including county judgeships. Historically, however, voters of that district have shown only a small propensity for moral outrage about heavy-handed political bossism. So chances are that in November a presidential year turnout about three times larger than that in the special election will return Costello to office with a handsome margin of victory.

The second open seat is deep in southern Illinois where incumbent Kenneth Gray is retiring again. After nearly a decade out of office following voluntary retirement in the mid-seventies, he captured the open seat in 1984 when Paul Simon ran for the Senate. Democrats seem united in support of a popular state senator, Glenn Poshard, who has run well in half the 22nd Congressional District. Democrats have dominated the district since the 1950s. There are no signs it will be vulnerable to a Republican challenge this year.

And then there are the marginal races. Despite an enduring Republican edge among central Illinois voters, Democrats managed to draw Bob Michel a district in which any given election can be close. This year he is being challenged by Douglas Stephens, who is remembered in District 18 because he nearly upset Michel in 1982. But in the six years since then Michel has spent a great deal of time and effort cultivating his constituency. Moreover, by mid-1988 he had raised over $600,000 for the campaign. In 1984 he spent $708,000 and in 1986 $640,000, substantially more than any other Illinois congressional candidate. The economy and employment picture is much better in Peoria, the industrial heart of the district, than it was in 1982. Michel is certainly favored.

Races in two other marginal districts could have been in doubt had the challengers been better known. Lane Evans in District 17 will have a tussle with Republican William E. Stewart, but prospects for an upset are not very great. And with only one previous term in office, Hasten might have been vulnerable in District 14 to a challenger who had previously won a significant public office. Democrat Stephen Youhanaie, a political neophyte, does not have those credentials.

That leaves one toss-up race in District 4 between freshman Republican Jack Davis and Democratic challenger George Sangmeister. Despite the incumbency advantage in this marginal district, Davis has a rugged rival. Sangmeister was state senator in the legislative district that occupies about half of the congressional district. Davis, as a former state representative, had only half that constituency in his election to the Illinois House. Moreover, Sangmeister was the slated running mate to Adlai E. Stevenson III in the 1986 gubernatorial campaign. Defeated in the primary by a Lyndon LaRouche-supported candidate, Sangmeister was lauded as an honorable and qualified candidate who should have been nominated by the Democrats. Among journalists, and perhaps voters, he gets sympathy as the victim of an inept Democratic campaign. In short, Sangmeister brings at least as much, perhaps more, political experience and reputation to the race as Davis does. Both are able, vigorous candidates. This race is too close to call.

Prospects are that most of the incumbents will win reelection with little difficulty. The open southern Illinois seats mean that the delegation will have two freshman members for sure. Michael Madigan's artful redistricting job has given Democrats an enduring advantage in the overall results. Regardless of which presidential candidate carries Illinois, do not look for those coat-tails to have much effect on congressional district outcomes. There will likely be little change in the state delegation. That might disappoint the founding fathers, but it is politics as usual in Illinois.□

Jack R. Van Der Slik is director of the Illinois Legislative Studies Center at Sangamon State University, and he is coauthor of Lawmaking in Illinois.

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