The tax issue and the 1990 race for governor

Bakalis	Hartigan
Burris	Rock
Cosentino	Ryan
Edgar

By MICHAEL D. KLEMENS

It's going to be a rigorous spring. The Illinois General Assembly is charting the course that the state will follow for the next year. A gubernatorial election looms. Here's an intellectual exercise to get yourself in shape. Match the following statements by Gov. James R. Thompson to the year that he made them part of his budget presentation:

1. "This is an extraordinary document. It builds Illinois, it teaches Illinois. It protects Illinois."
2. "Viewed in the context of what can be done with present resources . . . this budget does great things. This budget accomplishes a great deal more than any recent budget."
3. "This budget does not cut back. It moves Illinois forward. With the exception of transportation, this budget will permit us to move ahead on every other of our priority concerns."
         Years: a) 1981 b) 1985 c) 1989 (answers follow)

Gov. Thompson delivered optimistic budgets in 1981, 1985 and 1989. He followed delivery of those optimistic budget messages with announcements that he would seek reelection. He followed those announcements with successful campaigns in 1982 and 1986. And he followed those campaigns with calls in 1983 and 1987 for billion dollar tax increases.

In 1983 Thompson won a permanent increase in the sales and gasoline taxes but was forced to accept a temporary income tax hike. In 1987 Thompson failed to will any tax increase at all. He acknowledged afterwards that part of the problem was that he had not assessed the state's fiscal needs during the previous campaign.

In 1988 Thompson tried again to win an income tax increase and set about educating the public to the need for higher taxes. He says that taxpayers have been convinced and that only House Speaker Michael J. Madigan stands in the way. Others dispute that assessment. This year Thompson has dropped the effort to raise the income tax. He has proposed a budget that provides new money for schools and human services. He has not said whether he will seek a fifth term.

If Thompson does run again, he is on the record as saying that Illinois needs an income tax increase to pay for unmet needs in education and human services: "An increase of that sort [for education] and the appropriate level of increases for human service obligations cannot be obtained without an increase in the Illinois income tax. . . . Speaker Madigan and others who oppose an increase in the income tax are willing to settle for much less than I think the people of Illinois need for our future. . . . It's not a difference in terms of whether a tax is needed so much as it is a difference in goals for the people of Illinois."

Thompson is not the only potential candidate for governor. Should he choose not to run again, both Secy. of State Jim Edgar and Lt. Gov. George H. Ryan Jr. are

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poised to seek the Republican nomination for governor. Lining up on the other side are Atty. Gen. Neil F. Hartigan, Comptroller Roland W. Burris, Treasurer Jerry Cosentino, Senate President Philip J. Rock and former comptroller, Illinois' last elected superintendent of schools and the 1978 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Michael Bakalis.

Many of those potential candidates are among those unconvinced by Thompson's 1987 and 1988 tax hike pitches. Only Edgar and Rock say they see the need for an income tax increase. Ryan says he will stand by his governor but cannot say what next year's needs will be. Burris, who voiced support for a half percent income tax increase a year ago, says the taxpayers oppose it so he does too. Bakalis and Cosentino are unconvinced. And Hartigan is not saying.

All see a need for more education spending. And all acknowledge some degree of

If Thompson seeks reelection in 1990, Democrats will be able to tag him as favoring an income tax increase, something they were unable to do in 1982 and 1986

opposition among the electorate to higher taxes. Here's what the potential candidates say about their position on a tax increase:

Mike Bakalis says that he is unconvinced of the need but will not rule out an increase: "At this point I'm not convinced we do, but it's very early and I have not gotten into all the intricacies of the fiscal picture and the budget and all that kind of thing, so I don't want to sound like an expert before I am. . . . I don't think we've ever had a point in 12 to 14 years now where we've said let's go from base zero again and work our way up and see what the needs of the state are."

Roland Burris says that he went out on a limb with his contingent support of a half percent increase last year but that people and legislators oppose one so that he would try to find money for education without a tax increase: "If I could be convinced it would be prioritized properly, as I said when I supported the other one, but that's very hypothetical. If I were the governor and after I prioritized it, I'd have to assess it."

Jerry Cosentino says that only the governor has the full picture before him: "It's my thinking as treasurer that we've gotten by for the last several years where he's claimed that we needed an increase and we didn't get one and at this point I don't know if I would favor a tax increase. You'd have to show me."

Jim Edgar continues to say that the state needs the increase: "I said last year that I thought there was justification for an increase in the income tax for education and I think that's still true today. . . . My feeling last year was that if they got a half percent increase, it would help alleviate the problem that still exists."

Neil F. Hartigan is not taking questions about taxes. Initially his press people said Hartigan was too busy to respond. Finally Bud Miller, director of communications, said that because he was not a declared candidate, Hartigan was "not comfortable" answering the question.

Phil Rock says that he could support a 1 percent increase in the income tax but believes a half percent increase is more likely to pass: "We are woefully lacking in education funding at the elementary and secondary education levels. . . .We have the dubious distinction of having had 14 hospitals close.'' Rock believes that a tax increase would produce no revolt:' I think people would be willing to have each of us pay a little more for the greater good.''

George Ryan stresses his partnership with Thompson but won't commit to supporting one if elected: "Jim Thompson and I were elected together, we ran together and we are together. . . .I'd have to see what things look like a year from now. . . . If I felt there ought to be one for education, I'd probably be for it, but that's a long way down the road and hard to say."

If Thompson seeks reelection in 1990, Democrats will be able to tag him as favoring an income tax increase, something they were unable to do in 1982 and 1986. Republican Edgar and Democrat Rock are open to the same tag. Bakalis, Burris and Cosentino can avoid it. So can Hartigan. But the lesson of the last two campaigns is that an election win can change a governor's position on taxes.

And the answer to our quiz is 1-b, 2-c, and 3-a.

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