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Metropolitan Area Economies Charge Ahead In The Fourth Quarter
By JOHN B. CRIHFIELD Consumer spending exploded throughout Illinois in the fourth quarter. Real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) retail sales grew 10.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 1991 through the fourth quarter of 1992, the best showing in several years. Real spending growth in the fourth quarter exceeded third quarter gains, which had until now been the strongest in over three years. Growth was about the same in metropolitan areas (10.2 percent) as in rural areas (10.0 percent). The Decatur MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) led the way with real growth of 20.2 percent. Part of Decatur's strength was from catching up, since its performance was the weakest of all metropolitan areas in the state in the third quarter. Following Decatur, in order, are the Bloomington-Normal MSA (15.3 percent), the Joliet PMSA (14.6 percent), the Rockford MSA (13.3 percent), the Peoria MSA (12.9 percent), the St. Louis MSA (12.8 percent, Illinois portion), the Springfield MSA (12.4 percent), the Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul MSA (11.2 percent), the Aurora-Elgin PMSA (9.7 percent), the Chicago PMSA (9.4 percent), the Lake County PMSA (8.1 percent), the Davenport-Rock Island-Moline MSA (8.0 percent, Illinois portion), and the Kankakee MSA (6.4 percent). Spending in the collar counties continues to outpace the rest of the state, just as it has since the first quarter of 1992. However, other regions of the state are closing the gap, especially the downstate metropolitan areas. Spending cannot grow indefinitely at the rates experienced in the fourth quarter. However, the recovery, which began in the second quarter of 1991, is only 7 quarters long and is relatively young by historical standards. Using as a guide current sales forecasts by the University's Illinois Econometric Model, I expect continued growth, but at a more moderate rate. Findings are based on state and local sales tax receipts from over 1750 reporting towns, cities, and other units throughout Illinois. Tax data are converted to spending for all types of sales, including food. Only sales for untaxed items, such as manufacturing and farm machinery, and from unincorporated areas are excluded.
Table 1
NOTE: Results for the Davenport-Rock Island-Moline MSA and the St. Louis MSA refer to Illinois parts only. "Collar counties" include DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties. "Downstate metropolitan" counties (dmc) include all other metropolitan counties in Illinois as defined by the federal government (18 counties). "Rural agricultural" counties (ag) include all rural counties in which employment in farming and agricultural services represents 15 percent or more of total county employment in 1986 (29 counties). "Rural manufacturing" counties (mfg) include all rural counties in which manufacturing employment represents 15 percent or more of total county employment in 1986 (21 counties). "Rural diversified" counties (rdc) include all other counties, several of which have employment shares of 15 percent or more in both agriculture and manufacturing (26 counties). • May 1993 / Illinois Municipal Review / Page 5 |
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