Politics

State GOP leaders must handle big issues or risk loss of power

By CHARLES N. WHEELER III

Twenty-six years ago this month, Richard Buell Ogilvie, a Republican, was sworn in as Illinois' 35th governor. Also taking oaths of office were two other GOP leaders. House Speaker Ralph T. Smith of Alton and Senate President Pro Tern W. Russell Arrington of Evanston. Their elevation marked a key juncture in Illinois history, because through Ogilvie's leadership, with the aid of his legislative leaders, the 76th General Assembly enacted the state income tax, a sorely needed revenue source that enabled the state to make significant gains in education and human services.

But it was to be the last time for more than a quarter century that Republicans controlled all three levers of the law-making machinery. Although Republicans have held the Executive Mansion in 22 of the intervening years. Democrats have held a near monopoly on legislative control.

All that will change in a few days, however, when Gov. Jim Edgar is to be inaugurated for a second term as the state's 38th governor, and legislative power will be in the hands of two of his fellow Republicans—Senate President James "Pate" Philip of Wood Dale and soon-to-be House Speaker Lee A. Daniels of Elmhurst.

The challenges for the current GOP leaders are as daunting as they were for Richard Ogilvie and company 26 years ago

As the GOP triumvirate prepares to seize the reins of power in the 89th General Assembly, one might wonder whether their achievements equal those of the Republican leaders of a quarter of a century ago.

Edgar should provide at least a partial answer in short order. In the State of the State address he is scheduled to deliver in early January, the governor is expected to lay out his vision for what he wants the new GOP majorities to accomplish. Certainly, the challenges for the current GOP leaders are as daunting as they were for Ogilvie and company. A short list might include:

• School funding. The need to provide additional resources for local schools was a key factor in Ogilvie's decision to seek a state income tax. Thanks largely to the new income tax, the state's share of the cost of elementary and secondary education reached 48 percent in the 1975-76 school year. But rising property values and increased demand for state dollars — most notably to pay health care costs for the poor — have combined to push the state's share to less than one-third in the current school year.

As a result, almost one-sixth of the state's school districts — 145 out of 932 — are on the most recent state Board of Education financial watch list, an early warning that a local district is on thin financial ice. Moreover, four out of every five Illinois students now attend schools in districts that lack the resources a legislative task force deemed necessary for an adequate education.

The strain on local school districts will become more severe if property tax caps are extended beyond the five collar counties, where state revenue officials estimate the current lids have impacted 78 percent of the school districts, costing them some $133 million since 1991.

During the campaign, Edgar pledged that education would receive at least 36 percent of the state's general funds each year, roughly the same percentage provided in the current budget. This school year, elementary and secondary education received a $185 million boost, to almost $3.7 billion. Despite the size of the increase, the state's share remains about the same. Indeed, to push the state back to the 50 percent level would cost $2 billion or so, obviously impossible without a significant tax increase.

• Medicaid funding. The costs of providing health care for the poor continue to outstrip the state's ability to pay for them, to the tune of $2.2 billion by the end of fiscal year 1996, according to estimates by the Illinois Economic and Fiscal Commission. Moreover, the provider tax that's expected to produce more than $ 1 billion this year in state and federal funds is

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scheduled to expire in June. At the same time, Edgar's ambitious plan to shift some 1.1 million persons into managed care has been placed on hold by federal officials who have a long list of questions they want answered before they will give the go-ahead. As a result, the new program will not start April 1 as planned, but will be delayed until July 1 or later, costing the state about $43 million in savings for every three-month delay.

• Crime and punishment. During the last campaign, many legislators — and the governor — vied to see who could be the most hard-nosed on crime. If all those law-and-order promises are kept, however, the bill for new prisons and for the $16,000-a-year upkeep per inmate could be astronomical. Lawmakers may find it hard to balance their law-and-order rhetoric with another popular campaign pledge — hold the line on taxes and spending.

• Child care and other human services. The state continues to struggle to meet court-related mandates covering services to abused and neglected children, and elderly, mentally ill and developmentally disabled persons. Often, the biggest hurdle is finding the dollars to pay for the care the state is obligated to provide.

• Voter registration. Republicans by and large loathe the notion, but federal law requires states to allow would-be voters to register by mail. Thus, the new GOP majorities have an unpleasant choice — implement registration by mail, or force local election officials to maintain dual registration systems, all the while facing a federal lawsuit. To escape the dilemma, some legislators are counting on the new Republican Congress to repeal the national voter registration act. That's probably wishful thinking; despite the party's historic gains on Election Day, there still are not enough Republicans in either chamber to override President Bill Clinton's likely veto of a repeal.

Other vexing issues await, from the 1996 budget to the clamor for riverboat gambling in Chicago and elsewhere. Unless Edgar and the GOP legislature handle such challenges well over the next two years, the party's stewardship of the state's affairs could be short-lived.

Charles N. Wheeler III is director of the Public Affairs Reporting program at Sangamon State University in Springfield.

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