Congressional campaigns
Counting on a Contented Electorate:
Economic prosperity tends to favor incumbents, but that may not hold true in the 17th House District where Democrat Lane Evans faces a stiff challenge from Republican Mark Baker
by Mike Dorning
A lot has changed in the Quad Cities since a young legal aid attorney named Lane Evans first hit the campaign trail in an old Ford Escort and rode a wave of resentment against the 1982 recession all the way to Congress.
Unemployment dipped below 3 percent this year. John Deere & Co., the area's largest civilian employer, has celebrated record profits virtually every quarter for nearly five years. And the abandoned warehouses that once lined the Mississippi River banks are giving way to such upscale establishments as the Planted Earth Cafe, where sandwiches come on focaccia bread and yuppie lagers are served.
"The tips are very, very good. The average of what I make is 18 percent of what I sell," says Sandy Jipp, a 56-year-old waitress at the Planted Earth who recently returned to her hometown after departing during the 1980s for better opportunities in California.
Indeed, the Quad Cities, once a picture of rust-belt despair, is a model of economic prosperity, the kind that has most political analysts anticipating a contented electorate ready to return incumbents to office come November.
Nevertheless, here in western Illinois' 17th Congressional District, Evans, now a well-entrenched Democratic incumbent from Rock Island, is expected to face a fierce struggle. The reason is a formidable challenge from Republican Mark Baker, a former Quincy TV anchor who is reprising his 1996 race against Evans. Baker came within 11,000 votes of succeeding last time. And he did it in what was generally a Democratic year, when President Bill Clinton led his party's ticket against a hapless Bob Dole, the Republican standard-bearer, and Democrat Richard Durbin trounced the GOP's Al Salvi in Illinois' U.S. Senate race.
Baker's strong performance against that electoral tide exposed a vulnerability in Evans, who, though he represents what always has been a swing district, has nonetheless faced a series of weak rivals in recent years. (Evans' opponent in the Republican Revolution of 1994, for example, spent less than $16,000 on what amounted to a token effort.)
Baker, a polished and articulate campaigner, is already well-known in the region around Quincy through his years as a newscaster and in the rest of the district through his last campaign. Further, he's mounting a well-financed bid, reporting more cash in the bank in his June 30 financial disclosure than incumbent Evans, a considerable feat for a challenger. (Reports to the Federal Election Commission showed Baker with $449,283 and Evans with $321,744.)
As in his previous race, Baker is pounding away at Evans' voting record, one of the most liberal in Congress, and portraying him as ideologically out of step with his constituents. In fact, the 250-mile-long district, which runs alongside the Mississippi River from Quincy to well north of the Quad Cities, is a delicate balance between conservative-leaning farmers in the rural areas and the traditionally Democratic blue-collar workers in the river towns.
The outcome of this year's contest may well hinge, of course, on developments in the White House sex scandal. Or on Evans' May announcement that he's suffering from Parkinson's Disease, a condition that progressively impairs muscle control but does not affect mental ability.
Or on the intervention of outsiders.
The national parties and independent political groups are showing an avid interest in this race. Republican control of the House rests on a razor-thin 11-vote margin, and few Democratic seats in the country look as winnable to the GOP. Any or all of the major national political players could swamp the relatively inexpensive television market with political ads. In fact, as far in advance as April, the Sierra Club waged a two-week TV campaign in support of Evans, a longtime ally of environmentalists.
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"That race is the top congressional race in Illinois," says Porter McNeil, downstate director for the Democratic political consulting firm Axelrod & Associates. "It's going to be a whale of a campaign."
Certainly, the rematch represents the GOP's best chance to tilt the balance in Illinois' House delegation, now evenly split at 10 Democrats and 10 Republicans.
Among Illinois' three open U.S. House seats, the 9th, which is along Chicago's liberal Lakefront, is solidly Democratic and sure to be retained for that party by nominee Jan Schakowsky, a state representative from Evanston. The district is being vacated by 48-year-incumbent Rep. Sidney Yates of Chicago.
The 13th District seat in Chicago's west suburbs, left open by the retirement of Rep. Harris Fawell of Naperville, leans Republican, and GOP state Rep. Judy Biggert of Hinsdale is considered the likely winner.
In southern Illinois' 19th District, the gubernatorial campaign of departing Democratic Rep. Glenn Poshard of Marion should energize the traditional Democratic base to benefit that party's candidate. And Democratic nominee David Phelps of Eldorado is well recognized throughout the district as a state representative and a member of a popular regional gospel group.
Among incumbents, central Illinois' freshman GOP Rep. John Shimkus of Collinsville ordinarily might be considered vulnerable. He holds the 20th District seat long occupied by Democrat Durbin, which he won in 1996 by a margin of only 1,200 votes. But Shimkus benefits this year from a well-financed re-election campaign and a relatively unknown opponent, Rick Verticchio of Gillespie, a March primary write-in candidate who has held no office higher than precinct committeeman. (It should be noted that Verticchio does have active support from his party's heavy hitters.)
Despite a close call in 1996, Republican Rep. Jerry Weller of Morris, who represents Chicago's south suburban 11th District, is assisted this year in Cook County by the elimination of straight-party voting and by an overwhelming financial advantage against Democratic opponent Gary Mueller of New Lenox. Although incumbent Democratic Rep. Jerry Costello of Belleville was identified in news reports as an unindicted co-conspirator in the corruption trial of a long-time friend, his race against GOP nominee William Price of Belleville in southern Illinois' 12th District failed to generate early excitement among national political groups.
As a result, the focus in Illinois is on Evans and Baker, two men who present a clear contrast in political beliefs and personal styles.
Evans, 47, is everything that is out of fashion in Washington.
A liberal with rumpled suits and a propensity to mumble, he maintains a voting record consistently rated between 95 percent and 100 percent by the Americans for Democratic Action.
Evans is a solid supporter of organized labor, and he has risen to become the highest-ranking Democrat on the Veterans Affairs Committee. A Vietnam-era Marine veteran, though one who never saw combat, he has taken a lead on the concerns of his contemporaries in the armed services. He successfully spearheaded the campaign to gain medical compensation for veterans with illnesses linked to the defoliant Agent Orange. More recently, he has pressed the case of veterans complaining of illnesses related to the Gulf War.
In his other committee assignment, National Security, he has pushed the Pentagon to sign international treaties restricting the use of land mines and laser weapons intended to blind enemy soldiers. And he watches over the district's Rock Island Arsenal, which has survived several rounds of base cuts but has had its civilian workforce cut by a third during the 1990s.
Baker, 39, has the outgoing manner and easy confidence of the salesman he was long before he became a television anchor.
Over a slice of down-home strawberry-rhubarb pie and a cup of coffee, he pitches a platform emphasizing tax reduction, deregulation and, especially, free trade. The pro-labor protectionist votes Evans casts in Congress ultimately will rebound against big exporters in the district like Deere & Co., Baker argues.
"We're at the fork in the road on the global economy. Lane wants to take us on the protectionist path. We're going to lose jobs in this district if that happens," he says.
Baker also criticizes the incumbent for inattention to the district's infrastructure, contending Evans should instead be on the House Transportation Committee, seeking such projects as a four-lane highway to connect the two population centers, Quincy and the Quad Cities.
Evans counters by citing "tangible" achievements in the district, like establishment of a federal veterans' outpatient health facility in Quincy, saving local veterans from a 200-mile drive to Iowa City for treatment.
The issue both candidates say they will keep out of the campaign is Evans' illness. But it is inescapable. Evans' campaign manager says he makes a point of building more rest time into the candidate's schedule during congressional recesses. Evans now avoids standing for extended periods, and at a Rotary Club meeting in Quincy he remained awkwardly in his seat while giving a speech, prompting some of the Rotarians to wonder aloud whether he is up to the job.
"The illness causes me to have difficulty standing, moving, even smiling at times," Evans says. "It means a different campaign style for me."
When he announced his illness in
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May, Evans produced a letter from his doctor stating that he should "be able to function at a high level for a number of years." And, Evans adds, "Anybody who's interested can run with me in the morning."
But if his illness raises doubts among some, others are moved to demonstrate a sympathy that could provide a political boost. On a day spent campaigning among union members, a stronghold of his support, strangers repeatedly approach Evans to assure him that he looks well.
And, says Quincy Democratic Mayor Chuck Scholz, "It's answered a lot of questions about his reserved, stiff, somewhat downcast demeanor. That hurt him in '96, when he was pitted against someone [Baker] who was youthful, energetic, good looking."
With both sides expecting a low-turnout election, field organization may well play a deciding role. There, Evans has the advantage, drawing on a loyal base of support among the elderly, veterans and, particularly, union members, all readily identifiable and well-organized.
"That's what got him elected in 1982. That campaign is legendary for armies of enthusiastic young door-knockers," says McNeil. "They want to go back to 1982, which was a monumental effort."
Enthusiastic union backing for Poshard should further energize organized labor in the district.
But Baker's campaign staff went to work early this year and has been hiring experienced field organizers. And in the two years since the last election, Baker has traveled the district as a representative of the Illinois State Chamber of Commerce, enabling him to lay an organizational base throughout the region. "I'm not sure if I could have thought of a better position for him to get," says Craig Roberts, Shimkus' congressional chief of staff. "If he can get the business community engaged in his campaign, these are people everybody knows in the community. Everybody knows the local pharmacist and the local dry cleaner in these small towns."
Still, low voter turnout could work in Baker's favor. It's a truism that Republicans tend to turn out in greater numbers in low-interest, off-year elections. Developments in the White House scandal could depress Democratic turnout disproportionately. And the economic prosperity that appears to strengthen incumbents' chances elsewhere could backfire in this district if contented Democratic voters are lulled into staying home.
Mike Dorning covers Congress for the Chicago Tribune.
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