Regional shifts are likely to make for some interesting legislative races
by Burney Simpson

Environmental activists floated the slogan "Sprawl hurts us all" last year as lawmakers began debating changes wrought by unchecked population movement from urban centers into farm towns and rural areas.

The slogan didn't catch on. But in this election year, suburban Republicans may want to consider using it to rally their troops against encroaching Democrats.

That's because sprawl, or growth as Realtors would have it, has put more Democrats into longtime Republican legislative districts, helping Chicago Democrat Michael Madigan keep control of the Illinois House — and a lock on the title of speaker.

Some observers believe the areas that ring Chicago have changed so much that Republicans can no longer take voters for granted. And the party has had to make some changes.

"The traditional Republicans [in the Chicago area] are gone politically, geographically or spiritually. Their spirits have left us," says Paul Green, the director of the School of Policy Studies at Roosevelt University in Chicago.

Some observers believe the areas around Chicago have changed so much that Republicans can no longer take voters for granted.

Such shifts are likely to become more pronounced. The Openlands Project last year predicted that the portion of builtup land in Kane County to the west of the city will rise from 16.5 percent to 52 percent in the next 30 years. In Will County to the south, it will rise from 13 percent to 63 percent. The Project's Under Pressure: Land Consumption in the Chicago Region 1998-2028 reported that from 1995 to 1997, residential construction hot spots included Gurnee and Waukegan to the north, Lake in the Hills to the northwest, and Orland Park and Tinley Park to the southwest.

The change is social. African Americans, for example, are moving from the city to the south and southwest parts of Cook County. And the change is geographic. Rural areas in Lake and McHenry counties to the north and northwest, for instance, are morphing from farm field to strip mall. And these demographic changes could have lasting consequences for Illinois' two major parties.

But those consequences are still unclear. Traditional Democrats from the city could lean Republican as they pay higher property taxes. Aging Republicans could go Democratic as they face higher health care costs.

At the very least, regional changes have begun blurring partisan lines. And those shifts are likely to make for some interesting state legislative campaigns over the next year.

Here's one example. The Democrats have long been aligned with unionized public school teachers. But Rep. Kevin McCarthy, a Democrat from Orland Park, southwest of the city, successfully sponsored legislation that gives a tax break to parents who send their children to private schools.

Another example. Republicans have traditionally opposed abortion, but Sen. Christine Radogno, a Republican from LaGrange, in Southwest Chicago, believes women should have the right to choose.

Last December, a potentially more explosive issue popped up.

Gun control, at the heart of the rancor over the battle to reinstate the Safe Neighborhoods Act during a special session, may offer mixed returns for Republicans. An opinion poll found that Chicago-area voters support re-enactment of the measure, including a provision making it a first offense felony to illegally transport a firearm. Gov. George Ryan is for the measure and House members of both parties overwhelmingly voted for it. But the Senate Republicans — read traditional suburban Republicans — stalled, insisting the first-time charge should be reduced to a misdemeanor.

The Chicago Tribune poll also focused on 12 districts throughout the state where senators did not support Ryan. Southwest suburban Repub- lican Sen. Patrick O'Malley of Palos Park opposed the felony provision, but the Tribune found voters in his district supported it by a 6-to-l margin.

Democrats are already saying the issue will come up in the fall campaign. And O'Malley's seat is just one where differing viewpoints mean the voters could swing to the other side.

Along with the blurring of party lines on certain issues, the legislators in these swing districts downplay their party affiliation. Voters don't care about party labels anymore, they argue, but judge elected officials on constituent services.

"I don't tell people I'm proud to be

6 / March 2000 Illinois Issues

a Democrat. I'm not here [in Spring- field] as a Democrat," says Rep. M. Maggie Crotty, an Oak Forest Demo- crat. "People get sick of that. I'm sick of it. They want to know, what can you do for me? How will you settle the issues? Being a good Democrat doesn't do anything for you."

Crotty defeated Republican incumbent Jack O'Connor in 1996.

While the party label may or may not help persuade voters in these swing districts, the parties still hold the purse strings when it comes to a contentious race.

And this election is especially impor- tant for both parties. The winner gets to draw the maps that will define legis- lative districts for the next decade. And it will be up to the mapmakers to figure out just how the social, geographic and political shifts might play out. That requires a combination of art and science; if done right, maps can make a district safe for a party.

In both chambers the margins are already thin. The accelerating voter shifts mean party leaders will have to work that much harder to stay ahead of the curve.

Currently, the Republicans control the Senate with a 32-to-27 margin. The Democrats control the House with a 62-to-56 margin. Though Republican leader Lee Daniels drew the district lines after the 1990 election, his party has controlled the House for only two years during the decade. However, Madigan drew the maps in the 1980s and won five elections.

Whether Elmhurst Republican Daniels is to blame for the GOP'S fail- ure to take the House is up for debate. Charles Wheeler III, director of the Public Affairs Reporting program at the University of Illinois at Spring- field, says a variety of factors go into winning a district. "Is Madigan better [at drawing the map]? Do the Demo- crats have better candidates? Or is it the changing demographics? I'm not sure, but Daniels has only won one out of four elections."

In fairness to Daniels, he has had success at turning around some areas. After all, sprawl isn't just an issue in metro Chicago. The downstate Metro East region continues to grow. And the Republicans have gained support in

that traditional blue collar Democratic area.

One example is the downstate coal country district of Rep. Mike Bost, a Republican from Murphysboro. Bost has represented the district for five years. Daniels wants to build that base by putting Republican activist Virginia Ryan up against Rep. Jay Hoffman, a Collinsville Democrat who has served the area for most of the last decade. Daniel's spokesman, Gregg Durham, thinks the electorate in that area has become more akin to reliable Republi- can voters. "The demographics are changing there. It's getting closer to DuPage County," he says.

Still, it's too early in the election season for leaders of either party to tip their hand and say where they intend to direct most of their resources.

But in general, the toughest contests will be in those districts where the partisan margin is closest. Often that is in districts where population changes are taking place. And for the most part, those districts are in a ring around Chicago.

Twenty-two Senate seats are up for election this year. But Wheeler believes only a few districts will be major battlegrounds.

One is the 24th Senate District, which takes in some of the southwest side of Chicago and its neighboring suburbs. The pro-choice Radogno won by only 82 votes in 1996. Before serving in the Statehouse, she made her name by working on controlled growth issues that included blocking incinerator and sewage projects.

"I'm a moderate on social issues. I favor gun control, and 1 was with Gov. Ryan on the felony possession [por- tion] of the Safe Neighborhoods Act," says Radogno.

In 1996, voters showed a willingness to split their votes in her district. President Bill Clinton and U.S. Sen. Richard Durbin, both Democrats, won there.

Next door to Radogno is the 18th Senate District, represented by O'Malley. The only Democrat running is Rick Ryan, an attorney from Ever- green Park. Though both candidates are anti-abortion, Ryan says he will emphasize O'Malley's failure to vote for the felony gun provision.

The district is a rarity, with a Repub- lican senator and Democrats in its two House districts. And the Democratic vote has been on the rise. Evergreen Park Democrat James Brosnahan rep- resents the 35th District. First elected in 1996 with 56 percent of the vote, he raised that to 67 percent in 1998. Crotty holds the other House seat. In 1996, her district went to Republicans Bob Dole and Al Salvi. But she appears to be building support. In 1996, she garnered 54 percent of the vote and took that up to 57 percent in 1998.

North of Chicago, Republicans are eyeing the 30th Senate District. It includes wealthy lake shore suburbs and such blue collar towns as Waukegan. Democrat Terry Link of Vernon Hills won the district in 1996 by a margin of only 832 votes. Though a portion of this district was Lt. Gov. Corinne Wood's base when she was a Republican state representative, the area's voters are open-minded. Susan Garrett, a Democrat from Lake For- est, represents the district.

The other house seat is now held by Democrat Lauren Beth Gash of High- land Park, but she is moving on to run for the Congressional seat being vacated by retiring Republican U.S. Rep. John Porter.

To the far northwest in McHenry County is freshman Rep. Jack Franks, a Democrat from Woodstock. Franks was a surprise winner in 1998 and is considered Daniel's No. 1 target. The Republicans' choice in that party's primary is Tom Salvi of Crystal Lake. Salvi is a doctor and the brother of former state Rep. Al Salvi.

Franks agrees with Crotty that the party label has little meaning for his constituents. "What's the difference between the two parties? I can't find it," Franks says.

He contends his district has done better since it split its vote and sent a Democrat to the House. "McHenry County for a long time was a one- party district and we were a pocket vote for the Republicans," says Franks. "I'm in the majority party [in the House]. And we have a majority member in the Senate [Crystal Lake Republican Dick Klemm]. That makes a big difference." 

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