The licensing scandal could cement
George Ryan as a one-term governor
by Charles N. Wheeler III
For Gov. George Ryan, like the characters in Charles Dickens' A Tale of Two Cities, this is the best of times, this is the worst of times.
As Ryan enters his second year in executive office, the state economy is strong, jobs are plentiful, the treasury is flush with cash. Crime rates, welfare rolls, teen births and infant mortality are down.
"I can report to you today that the outlook for Illinois' future is unlimited," the governor told a joint session of the General Assembly last month, "and the state of this state is outstanding."
The state's good fortune shows in the $46.5 billion budget Ryan proposed for fiscal year 2001, which begins on July 1.
The spending plan includes a $525 million increase for education, a $200 million hike for state-subsidized child care and $212 million more for senior medical care, drug abuse treatment, local health programs and other human services. More state troopers, prison guards and parole officers would be hired. And Ryan called for a five-year, $1.9 billion investment in advanced research and development to secure Illinois' place in the new, high technology-based economy.
In his address, Ryan also reflected on the major accomplishments of his first year. A tuition tax credit for families with children in grade or high school, longer prison terms for offenses involving guns, a $12 billion public works program to renew the state's aging infrastructure, a bill of rights for managed care patients - all were signed into law last year.
Moreover, the governor gained national attention, most of it favorable, for taking the lead on two controversial issues. Making a historic visit to Cuba last fall, the governor criticized the U.S. trade embargo against the island nation. Then, two days before his budget address, Ryan declared a moratorium on executions because of the state's sorry record of sending innocent men to Death Row. That move prompted President Bill Clinton and U.S. lawmakers to examine anew the use of capital punishment nationwide.
Sandwiched between the Monday moratorium and the Wednesday address, however, was a Tuesday that marked the worst of times for Ryan. On that day, the governor's longtime friend Dean Bauer was indicted on federal charges of covering up widespread license-selling and bribery in the secretary of state's office during Ryan's tenure, despite being hand-picked by Ryan to root out corruption.
Before the inspector general became the 29th person indicted, the investigation could be dismissed as a probe into illegal activities by lower-level workers far removed from Ryan's scrutiny, about which the secretary of state knew nothing. Reasonable enough, for an office with some 4,000 employees spread over 102 counties.
The inspector general's indictment, however, escalated the inquiry, linking it for the first time to Ryan's inner circle and undermining the governor's professed ignorance. The question is no longer "Should Ryan have known what his clerks and office supervisors were up to?" Now, the question becomes "Did he know?" After all, how plausible is it that Bauer would not tell his old pal about the wrong-doing going on in his friend's shop?
Not very, according to Illinoisans responding to a Copley poll taken a few days after the Bauer indictment. Only 19 percent of 627 people surveyed said they believed Ryan when he said he knew nothing of the illegal activity in his former office, while 57 percent said they didn't believe him. Sixty-one percent said they didn't believe Ryan didn't know some of the bribe money wound up in his campaign coffers, while 68 percent said they didn't believe him when he said he did all he could to stop the corruption. Moreover, 29 percent thought Ryan was personally involved in the wrongdoing, while 30 percent weren't sure. His overall favorable job performance rating, meanwhile, dipped to 45 percent.
Yet, while the indictment clearly raised serious questions in the public's
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mind about Ryan's forthrightness, his ability to serve as chief executive should not suffer. The governor may have lost some political capital, but its greatest value comes in trying to enlist public support for major change, or in asking lawmakers to make tough choices. Neither scenario fits Ryan's situation. His proposed fiscal year 2001 budget mostly calls for doing more of what we're doing now, plus a new high-tech initiative that includes goodies for plenty of legislative districts. It's never hard to convince lawmakers to spend, especially on down home projects. And there are few tough choices when there's $1 billion to play with.
Moreover, after almost 30 years in public service, Ryan is genuinely liked by almost everyone in state political circles, as attested to by the prolonged standing ovation he received when he promised not to let anything interfere with "being the best governor I can be."
Nor will the scandal impede the day-to-day operations of government. In time-honored tradition, the ship of state will sail ahead on a steady course despite its captain's problems and perhaps even minus his full attention. Child abuse reports will be investi- gated, highways plowed and potholes fixed, offenders locked up, state taxes collected, and myriad other services delivered by thousands of dedicated state workers. The real impact of the scandal, though, the Copley poll suggests, may be to cement Ryan as a one-term governor. Earlier polls found voters unhappy with the license fee and liquor tax increases that are bankrolling Ryan's public works program. Three years' worth of new schools, roads, sewage treatment plants and other local projects, however, should go a long way toward convincing folks they're getting their money's worth.
Yet all the bricks and mortar in the world might not be enough to restore lost public trust in the governor as a result of the licensing scandal. The worst of times could well rule out a second Ryan Administration.
Charles N. Wheeler III is director of the Public Affairs Reporting program at the University of Illinois at Springfield.
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