Guest essay

WHEN A WATER WITCH WON'T WORK
Drought conditions will revisit Illinois, and with a greater frequency and severity than in recent memory. We should start doing something about it now

by Derek Winstanley and Mark E. Peden

Last spring it appeared Illinois was on the brink of another Dust Bowl. "Drought worsens in central and southwestern Illinois!" was typical of the headlines that greeted us as reservoir levels dropped throughout the state. The Pantagraph in Bloomington pictured boat docks on Lake Bloomington jutting into thin air without a drop of water in sight. Springfield residents also watched as their lake dropped week after week. Then, amid discussions of emergency water conservation strategies and mobilization of the state's drought task force, the rains came. The crisis was averted.

Yet, if we can believe the experts, that reprieve is only temporary. Drought conditions will revisit us, and with a greater frequency and severity than we have experienced in recent memory. As the population increases in some regions of the state, those water supplies will become strained. In short, Illinois will continue to face periodic water shortages.

What can we do about it? Comprehensive regional water supply planning would help. That was the conclusion of water resource experts and policy-makers from across the country who gathered last summer in Chicago to take stock of Illinois' existing water supplies and consider scenarios for future water needs. The conference was hosted by the Illinois State Water Survey, a division of the Department of Natural Resources.

The good news is that Illinois has an abundant supply of high-quality ground and surface water. And that supply is relatively stable. But residential development and industrial expansion have been tapping those supplies

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at an increasing rate.

A quick look at the available primary water supplies and the current water use in Cook County, which includes Chicago, and the five collar counties in the northeastern section of the state puts this issue into perspective. That area accounts for 64 percent of the state's population now. And it's expected to experience the greatest growth over the next 20 years. But when all sources of water for this growing metropolitan region are considered, perhaps as much as 80 percent to 90 percent of the available supply in northeastern Illinois is already being tapped. The message is clear: Northeastern Illinois does not have an endless supply of high-quality water.

SOURCE: Illinois State Wafer Survey

Let's take a closer look at the major sources of water, beginning with Lake Michigan. Withdrawals from the lake are currently running at the maximum volumes allowed by law. This state's allocation is restricted by a U.S. Supreme Court decree to 3,200 cubic feet per second, or 2,067 million gallons per day. And virtually every gallon is being used. Any increase in that allocation would require approval from the U.S. Supreme Court. And the conventional political wisdom is that any such request from Illinois would be challenged, particularly when Lake Michigan is already nearly two feet below the average long-term level. Further, as demand for water in other parts of the country continues to increase, all five of the Great Lakes will increasingly be eyed as the nation's most abundant and available supply of high-quality fresh surface water. Indeed, former U.S. Sen. Paul Simon, the keynote speaker at last summer's conference, warned that water shortages in southern California and the Nevada and Arizona deserts may soon put pressure on policy-makers to allow diversion of water from the Great Lakes to these water-scarce regions. Simon, an expert on the increasing global water shortages, is the author of the powerfully persuasive 1998 book on this subject. Tapped Out: The Coming World Crisis in Water and What We Can Do About It.

Other major sources of surface water supplies in the northeastern portion of the state are the Fox and Kankakee rivers. An estimated 21 million gallons per day is withdrawn from the Fox River to supply the six-county region. The Kankakee River currently supplies an estimated one million gallons per day. Long-term sustainable yields from these two rivers have not been determined, but any effort to substantially increase withdrawals would require extensive studies and permits to ensure adequate flows to protect biological habitats and downstream users.

Meanwhile, withdrawals from the deep bedrock aquifers in this area amount to an estimated 65 million gallons per day. This already equals the amount that can be safely withdrawn without significantly lowering water levels in the wells that tap this abundant groundwater source. Shallow wells in that area are currently withdrawing 82 million gallons per day from a resource capable of producing an estimated maximum of 400-500 million gallons per day. This maximum amount can only be withdrawn, however, after ensuring that this rate would have no adverse impacts on regional lake levels and stream flows.

But a growing population, and a consequent rise in energy consumption, can be expected to further tap these limited water supplies in the northeastern section of the state. As a result, long-term planning is critical.

Let's take a closer look at just one factor in the rising demand for water in that section of the state. To accommodate urban and industrial growth, electricity providers already are proposing the development of new energy-generation plants, so-called "peaker plants." Because they employ small turbines for intermittent use when demand peaks, these plants require significant amounts of water for cooling and other operations.

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Peaker plants may consume 0.07 million to 2.0 million gallons of water per day while in operation, and almost all of this water is lost to the atmosphere through evaporation. Typically, these plants operate only a few weeks, perhaps up to three months, per year. To put this utility water use into perspective, the town of Woodstock in central McHenry County uses about 2.3 million gallons per day, every day of the year to supply water to a community with a population of 18,000. Many of these new plants are proposed for northeastern Illinois where population growth is the greatest and demands for groundwater and surface water, currently supplied primarily by Lake Michigan, increase daily. Larger base-load plants that produce electricity throughout the year and use much more water than the peaker plants also are planned.

Data on water sources and consumption for the rest of the state have not been compiled, but we know from recent experience that many of our man-made surface water reservoirs are sensitive to short-term droughts. Reservoir capacity also diminishes with gradual buildup of sediment on lake bottoms. Dredging this sediment is expensive, and the creation of new lakes by building new dams is costly and often opposed by local residents and environmental interests. Much of central Illinois, for example, benefits from an abundant supply of groundwater from the Mahomet aquifer that stretches from Indiana to the Illinois River. The potential long-term yield from this rich source continues to be studied. But detailed information on the sustainable yield from smaller, localized aquifers is still needed to provide accurate estimates of the growth potential of these regions.

Further, we will need to maintain and enhance our major sources of surface water. The Illinois River is one. Some 90 percent of the state's population lives in the Illinois River basin, which stretches from the Chicago metropolitan area down the western side of the state to the Metro East region. Put another way, nearly 900,000 people rely on the Illinois River for their drinking water. Yet the health of that river has been in decline for decades. As chair of the Illinois River Coordinating Council, Lt. Gov. Corinne Wood, who also addressed the conference, is promoting the Illinois River 2020 program. It would provide $2.5 billion in federal funds over the next 20 years to ensure that the Illinois River, among its other uses, will continue to provide a viable source of drinking water. That should be a priority. The Illinois River is needed as a safe source of drinking water, one that meets current and proposed requirements of the federal Safe Drinking Water Act.

To sustain that resource, as well as other sources of fresh water for current and future generations, Illinoisans will need to take short-term action and make long-term plans.

The challenge is clear. The U.S. Census Bureau predicts that Illinois' population will increase by more than one million over the next two decades. This growth will require additional water resources for power generation, domestic and industrial use, and possibly irrigation. Atmospheric scientists are divided in their opinions about what effects climate change will have on the quantity and quality of Illinois' water resources, but there is general agreement that the severe droughts experienced in the Midwest during the 1930s and 1950s were part of normal climatic variation that is likely to recur in the future. A drought of that magnitude would have devastating consequences for those parts of Illinois already susceptible to moderate droughts. As water supplies remain constant and population continues to climb, drought-susceptible areas will only increase.

Simon challenges us to become "missionaries" on the need to address the future water crisis before it is too late. Now is the time to develop comprehensive regional plans to prevent serious impending water shortages.

What should we be doing? The first step is to accurately determine available groundwater and surface water resources throughout the state and calculate acceptable withdrawal rates to avoid depletion. Some climate change predictions for Illinois show a 5- to 10-inch decrease in annual precipitation during this century. If this prediction is true, lake levels and shallow groundwater levels will be lower than they are today. Estimates of future climate change need to be refined and considered when evaluating future water resources. Regional population projections should then be used to estimate water demands for the next 20 to 50 years. That analysis will reveal where and when water shortages are most likely to occur. The Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission is already doing this for northeastern Illinois.

Where water shortages are predicted, new and perhaps costly water supplies must be developed and conservation strategies implemented, including the feasibility of the use of "gray water" or recycled water for nonconsumptive uses such as irrigation. Groundwater replenishment through artificial recharge should be investigated. Methods for increasing the capacity of existing reservoirs through dredging or raising dam heights need to be considered. New water treatment technologies should be evaluated to determine whether groundwater currently considered unfit for domestic use because of high mineral content may now be economically treated. Finally, comprehensive regional water resources planning and management should examine the combined use of groundwater and surface water supplies and conservation and reuse strategies.

We know the steps that need to be taken to avert a water crisis in Illinois. It's up to all of us as residents and consumers of this precious resource to make sure that we begin planning today for adequate water supplies tomorrow and for future generations. Toward these ends, Gov. George Ryan has formed a Water Resources Advisory Committee and asked the committee to submit a set of recommendations by December.

Derek Winstanley is the chief of the Illinois State Water Survey, a division of the Illinois Department of Natural Resources. Mark E. Peden is a senior professional scientist at the survey.

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