Tourism (recreation away from home) is projected to become the largest single industry in the world in the next century. This may imply that, at least for the majority of the world's citizens, the leisure ethic will be asserting itself ever more forcefully. It would appear that the worldwide standard of living, linked with advances in technology for global transportation and communication, has elevated to the point where people will spend more collectively, on touring than anything else in the total global economy.

The Trends
• Most travel taken by Americans is pleasure-related, accounting for three-fourths of total trips.
• 73 percent of adult Americans (ages 25 to 49) feel vacations are becoming a more important part of their lives, and 69 percent plan to take more time off for vacations in the next few years.
• More and more, vacationers are opting for more frequent, but shorter and more affordable, vacations than in me past (the three to four day weekend): however, for retirees projections are for increased, extended vacation trips.
• Spending on the arts is increasing, to where some futurists now conclude that the arts are replacing sports as society's foremost leisure activity.
• Recreation vehicle use is increasing and will likely continue, as the U. S. population ages and more and more baby boomers retire.
• Travelers are becoming more culturally and racially diverse, and older.
• Almost one-fourth of business travelers add leisure activities to their trips—every year, more travelers are mixing business with pleasure.
• Eco-tourism is a grow ing phenomenon, where travelers are exposed to unusual or wilderness natural resources and participate in resource restoration/protection work as part of their trip.
• An adjunct aspect of the post-industrial, information society is a shift from a manufacturing (resource consumptive) economy to, eventually an experience economy.
• Some futuristic views of tourism include travel into space and to the bottom of the sea, made possible by continuously advancing technology.

The Implications
• Travelers everywhere will become more diverse culturally, as "globalization" continues. Establishing a community as a regional or international destination point requires that we be ready for visitors from more and more countries around the world.
• Careful natural resource management plans must be established and vigilantly attended to, to prevent the growing pressures of visitorship from harming the resources irreversibly. Closing facilities for periods of time so that they may "rejuvenate" may be required.
• Our customer service ethic must remain strong. Increasing quantities of visitors can not permit a sacrifice of quality.
• Opportunities should be taken for exposure to local ethnic resources, in part as a tool to reinforce an appreciation of differences. This should include exposure to the arts.
• Major motivators for travel and tourism will expand beyond just recreative aspects (respite from work) to include opportunities for authentic (as opposed to spectator) experience, adventure/high risk, socialization, education, exercise and personal development ("experience vacations").
• Continuing world population growth will increase pressure on the global ecosystem, and every industry will be called upon to "go green"—provide services in ways that are resource protective (sustainable), instead of consumptive. Ensure that the customer's experience models ecological sensitivity: provide non-motorized transportation options; provide energy efficiency, water conservation and recycling at all facilities.
• Older travelers will want slower-paced trips and access to health and medical services.
• Parking for RVs will be needed in greater numbers. Baby boomer parents will need facilities for child care.
• Linkages need to be made for business travelers between lodging and activity centers and opportunities for recreation. For example, more programs and facilities may need to be provided on or near hotel sites or, at least, easily accessible by transportation services.

About the Author
J.P. Tindell, M.S., is president of Future Focus, of San Jose, California. This column is reprinted with the permission of the 'California Park and Recreation Society. The article appeared in the Fall 1992 edition of California Parks & Recreation.